quote:
On 538 the latest poll in GA by the Premise group has Trump +4. Also Cygnal has Trump +1

On 538 the latest poll in AZ by the Prime group has Trump +4. Rasmussen has Trump +11

Nevada Newsmakers poll has Trump +8 in NV

On 538 the latest poll in PA by Quinnipiac has Trump +1, the Prime group has Trump EVEN

Those states get Trump to 287 EVs.

not only that its just sampling. 538 runs 100k simulations during the month of. even at Clinton high water before fbi comey did a 2nd presser, trump was winning 13,000 simulations a day. one of those combos happened. he could win again.

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Posted by Marcus Aurelius

Member since Oct 2020

3900 posts

Posted on 7/27/23 at 9:29 pm to RobbBobb

That is mostly ... maybe all ... bs.

Yes I did.

Cygnal is a GOP SuperPAC poll

Rasmussen is a GOP pollster

Prime Group is a political Washington DC group - which you mentioned twice.

THOSE ARE NO DIFFERENT THAN "Public Opinions Strategies polls". Show the evidence that the Never Back Down PAC paid them to do polls. LINK?

You mentioned Nevada Newsmakers state poll (looks like a political news org of some sort)... which showed in May DeSantis up +10 and Trump up by +8 (my math shows that as being less)... but left off the other state poll with Biden up by 8 on Trump and only 1 on DeSantis. Regardless, neither of those met the criteria I mentioned. Can either be taken seriously?

I gave Trump the benefit of the doubt and gave him PA and that would not get him to 270.

"No you didnt. You Ronbois constantly lie about everything

On 538 the latest poll in GA by the Premise group has Trump +4. Also Cygnal has Trump +1

On 538 the latest poll in AZ by the Prime group has Trump +4. Rasmussen has Trump +11

Nevada Newsmakers poll has Trump +8 in NV

On 538 the latest poll in PA by Quinnipiac has Trump +1, the Prime group has Trump EVEN

Those states get Trump to 287 EVs."

This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 10:02 pm

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Posted by RobbBobb

Matt Flynn, BCS MVP

Member since Feb 2007

27952 posts

Posted on 7/27/23 at 10:22 pm to Marcus Aurelius

quote:
Cygnal is a GOP SuperPAC poll

Rasmussen is a GOP pollster

Prime Group is a political Washington DC group - which you mentioned twice.

THOSE ARE NO DIFFERENT THAN "Public Opinions Strategies polls"

Public Opinion Strategies tells you on their own web page that they are bought and paid for

quote:
Our research is dedicated to winning elections. Our political client base includes eleven U.S. Senators, seven Governors, 50 Members of Congress, and numerous state legislative caucuses.

Legit pollsters are about identifying trends, NOT WINNING ELECTIONS

Cygnal

quote:
In 2011, we started providing accurate, budget-friendly surveys and polls. The feedback was phenomenal. So we added modeling and predictive analytics then integrated a ground-up build of our first custom software platform to round out our industry-benchmark (and award-winning) Multi-Mode Polling methodology. This perfect combination of technology, analytics, and voter targeting led The New York Times to name Cygnal the #1 most accurate polling firm in 2018. In the same year, FiveThirtyEight said Cygnal was the top GOP polling firm, which was reconfirmed in 2020 with Cygnal calling the most races correct of any Republican shop in the nation.

Rasmussen

quote:
Rasmussen Reports is a nonpartisan electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports' work is followed by millions on a wide variety of media platforms. We regularly release our results at RasmussenReports.com, America's most visited public opinion website

Prime

quote:
Greg Schneiders founded Prime Group in 1990. Greg's long career in research, strategic planning, and communications include serving as Director of Communications in the White House and for the Democratic leadership in the U.S. Senate. He has also led the communications efforts for several presidential campaigns.

None of those are paid for a certain result, by an individual candidate

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Posted by deltaland

Member since Mar 2011

90729 posts

Posted on 7/27/23 at 10:30 pm to Marcus Aurelius

WI and AZ are more likely than PA honestly

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Posted by keks tadpole

Yellow Leaf Creek

Member since Feb 2017

7582 posts

Posted on 7/27/23 at 10:35 pm to Marcus Aurelius

quote:
and how that would translate into a General Election win over Biden

Biden? WTF are you talking about? If Biden, who's brain is mush, even runs again, and wins, we need to march on Montgomery and demand MeeMaw start drafting a Declaration of Independence.

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Posted by redandright

Member since Jun 2011

9619 posts

Posted on 7/27/23 at 10:45 pm to CDawson

quote:
VA was another state that Trump was winning handily until the wee morning showed up and the vote dumps began.

VA is a blue state that Youngkin flipped because of the parents who saw what was going on in their schools, and because of the stupidity of MacAuliffe saying that parents had no right to be involved in their kids’ education.
Sort of like dumping on a native son war hero.

The reason for the big vote numbers for Biden at the end of the evening is the same reason that the Dems have been winning the governorships in VA. The DC Beltway Counties, where all of the Fed bureaucrats live. And it’s huge in population, and they love themselves some Democrat control in DC. Those are a lot of votes that have to be counted.

If VA would flip Red in a national election, it really would be a wave election.

This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 10:46 pm

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Posted by Marcus Aurelius

Member since Oct 2020

3900 posts

Posted on 7/28/23 at 7:00 pm to RobbBobb

LOL ... like I said ... mostly or ALL BS.

YOU did NOT find a recent, non biased, not party affiliated pollster that shows Trump with a path to victory.

* Cygnal is a GOP pollster that has clients that include AL Kay Ivey ... LOL ... Gov Kemp of GA, Gov Abbot of Texas, Mitch McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund, among others. So, they DO work for specific clients just like Public Opinions Strategies.... says so right on their web site. LINK / Nor did you provide any evidence that POS has been paid by DeSantis.

* You had to go all the way back to MARCH to try and find a positive Rasmussen poll in AZ - NOT current. The reality is there is NOT a current, completely non-biased one available.

* The FUNNIEST one is that you used Prime ... a Democratic strategist ... and we KNOW the DEMs want Trump to win... to figure out a path to victory for Trump. You can't make this stuff up.

IN SHORT ... you, nor any of your Always Trumper board brothers could show a path to victory for a former President and three time loser Don Trump.

This post was edited on 7/28/23 at 7:04 pm

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