re: US Chinese Virus Tracker - 466,299 Cases, 16,686 Deaths, 26,104 Recovered (4/10/2020)

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This Harvard epidemiologist disagrees. brief interview What do the models you've made say?

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experts make predictions all the time. That doesn't mean that because one expert says it is going to be this way mean it is going to be this way.

So maybe in the USA over 100 million people get infected. If that actually happens I doubt the percentage stays at 2 or 3% like it is now.

From what I've seen about this virus is many people have it and think it is no more than a common cold or flu. Even from what I've seen this thing is highly infective but we should be able to keep us safe. I just hate seeing people say this is the worst thing to happen ever. It's bad and no-one wants people to get sick and die, but we will survive it and move on. We survived h1n1 and we are still pretty good.

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What are the number of cases in America and the deaths?

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Does it matter what it currently is if its (seemingly) growing exponentially?

I'm not sure what you're expecting from a few sick people arriving in America 5 or 6 weeks ago but illnesses take time to spread. We've just started to see our numbers climb and people are scoffing at how few people have been infected or killed. Yea, duh, that's how this works.

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are there other experts who disagree

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sure benotdecivedgal64,dale51 and boat all agree that the virus isnt a big deal. Isn't that enough? To be honest ive looked through medical journals to find modeling info on this and there isnt a whole lot out there as this is a new virus. It seemed clear he was even being conservative with his modeling numbers and is probably one of only a very small handful of people with the ability to model this that are being public with it.

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Does it matter what it currently is if its (seemingly) growing exponentially?

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You're not answering the question.
Why not?

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Being an expert doesn't make someone trust worthy.

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actually it does. Science requires trust, that people are being truthful and a scientists career is dependent on their reputation for being honest (not fudging numbers). If a scientist just once is shown to be dishonest in regards to their work they are excommunicated from the community, generally lose all funding and are no longer taken seriously by their peers. In this way a scientist like this is not the same as an ESPN or political "expert".

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You're not answering the question.
Why not?

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Because today's rates won't be what our rates will be in the future, and its what the rates could be in the future that concern people.

Imagine you're talking to a doctor telling you about an eraser sized cancerous tumor in your lungs and you scoffing at the doctor because its only the size of an pencil eraser. That's how retarded you sound right now.

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ive looked through medical journals to find modeling info on this and there isnt a whole lot out there as this is a new virus

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Um no!


Coronaviruses were first discovered in the 1960s.[8] The earliest ones discovered were infectious bronchitis virus in chickens and two viruses from the nasal cavities of human patients with the common cold that were subsequently named human coronavirus 229E and human coronavirus OC43.[9] Other members of this family have since been identified, including SARS-CoV in 2003, HCoV NL63 in 2004, HKU1 in 2005, MERS-CoV in 2012, and SARS-CoV-2 (formerly known as 2019-nCoV) in 2019. Most of these have involved serious respiratory tract infections.
After the Dutch Erasmus Medical Centre sequenced the virus, the virus was given a new name, Human Coronavirus–Erasmus Medical Centre (HCoV-EMC). The final name for the virus is Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). In May 2014, the only two United States cases of MERS-CoV infection were recorded, both occurring in healthcare workers who worked in Saudi Arabia and then travelled to the U.S. One was treated in Indiana and one in Florida. Both of these individuals were hospitalized temporarily and then discharged.[43]

In May 2015, an outbreak of MERS-CoV occurred in the Republic of Korea, when a man who had traveled to the Middle East, visited 4 hospitals in the Seoul area to treat his illness. This caused one of the largest outbreaks of MERS-CoV outside the Middle East.[44] As of December 2019, 2,468 cases of MERS-CoV infection had been confirmed by laboratory tests, 851 of which were fatal, a mortality rate of approximately 34.5%.[45]

Erasmus scientists have actually modified the virus to be stronger to study it in the event of bioterrorism. How lucky!

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From what I've seen about this virus

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what is your level of education?

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Because today's rates won't be what our rates will be in the future,

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Fair enough, but that wasn't the question.

I asked what the rates now were in order to accurately predict what they may become in America.

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I asked what the rates now were in order to accurately predict what they may become in America.

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No, you were asking it to insinuate that it's not a big deal because the numbers were so low.

If your intent was what you say now you'd have just read the thread title which is accurate within the last 24 hours.

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317 Cases, 15 Deaths, 8 Recovered (3/6/2020)

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