re: US Chinese Virus Tracker - 466,299 Cases, 16,686 Deaths, 26,104 Recovered (4/10/2020)

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The caveat being most folks will not get as sick as they would with the flu, if they get sick at all.

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Gotcha. So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.

I only say that because assuming the the flu kills 34,000 people as it did last year, your projection would be in the 136k range for deaths?

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Reading comprehension is not your strong suit.

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Sorry I am dumb you will have to enlighten me.

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So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.

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At this point we know the virus deadly for elderly with underlying health problems. To healthy people this virus might only present the symptoms of allergies acting up.

The only people going to the doctor are those with severe like flu symptoms. You cannot determine the mortality rate unless you know the total number of those with the virus.

But we will never know that number because many people with the virus show little to no symptoms.

On paper the death rate appears high but in reality it is much much lower.

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Cannot Explain Death

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So they don’t know if Corona? You speculating?

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Right.

That is possible. Anticipation is we will see far fewer cases though.

That gets at effective contagiousness for CV vs flu. Initial calculations of CV contagiousness (R0) were based on spread of symptomatic cases. Early on, asymptomatic transmission was severely underestimated. So R0 assumptions were/are inflated.

I'd be surprised if we don't see significant reworking of CV R0 values.

Meanwhile, the presumption is testing, isolation, and control can limit case numbers to fewer than typify flu outbreaks.

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I tend to agree with this assessment, though those CFR and R0 numbers are going to be dependent on people getting tested, something the CDC has botched so far.

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"The death of 36-year-old Li Liang prompted clinics across the city to stop discharging patients, while hospitals in other parts of China are reporting an unsettling number of relapses and re-infections."

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It is like you have a short term memory impediment.
Do you not remember discussing this?

Once again, unless COVID-19 is different from other viruses, recovery confers immunity.
Got it?

If somehow that is not the case, then vaccination will be useless. "Reinfection" is dubious news, from a dubious source, with dubious resources, which we know have arrived at dubious conclusions in the past. E.g., COVID-19 has gone airborne in China.

ChiComs claim this episode "prompted clinics across the city to stop discharging patients." Why?
Why, if this were a reinfection, would it make sense to delay discharge of patients who are recovered from infection? It wouldn't. China knows this was a case of unrecognized ongoing infection.



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Read the post below yours.

I assumed from reading your post that you were on the verge of panic. Apologies if I misread.

We need more data. Our current sample size is not adequate. The USA is not going to suffer as much as third world country with poor health care, infrastructure, and lack of leadership. I am concerned but not panicked. Common sense goes a long way in staying safe.

The CDC figure includes pneumonia.

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Read the post below yours.

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Ok

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because the CDC said yesterday that the mortality rate is more like 0.01% - 1%.

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Thats a wide range. There were 34,000 deaths last year attributed to the flu, roughly killing 0.14% of patients. So they are predicting on the low end a normal flu to killing almost 7 times that figure on the high end, or about 250,000 people - not an insignificant figure.