re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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At our hospitals, we're seeing a relatively stable number of new cases a day, but more recently the new admissions are more likely to go directly to the ICU. We have a lot of capacity, but our models say at current rates we'll be near capacity by the end of next week.

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How is the ventilator supply at your hospital system?

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Italy Summary
4) UK Summary
5) France Summary
6) Germany Summary
7) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
8) Predictive Model - A simple predictive model that shows where the numbers will be in the future if growth rates don't change

New Tabs Added in the last day
9) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
10) Sweden Summary

If you would like a graph created that I don't have, just ask and if it's possible I will create it for you.

Due to space constraints on the PT board, I'm only posting a few graphs in the thread, if a consensus emerges of what graphs the PT wants to see in thread without having to go to the tracker, I will gladly change them up.

I am working to create a sheet that compares the US metrics to the other country's metrics. I'll let you all know when that's done and available.

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

are recoveries being underreported

More than likely they are, but who knows.

At this point, out of every 1 million Americans

258 have tested positive
4 of those have died
5 or 6 of those have recovered
6 or 7 of those have a serious case
241 to 243 of those remaining are not considered serious cases

999,742 have either tested negative or have not been tested

Mother fricker


frick this shite

Is the assumption that the lockdowns that have been implemented are going to cause the curve to flatten?

Italy implemented a very strict lockdown as opposed to what looks to be a somewhat softer lockdown in some areas of the US.

I've been asking this now for a couple of days, when will we see our efforts beginning to show in the numbers? At our current growth rates we'll hit 1M cases in around 10-11 days and 35K dead in 13-14 days if the curve doesn't change. I feel the 35K number is significant due to it being very close to the 34K of Flu deaths the CDC estimates for the 2018-2019 flu year.

We are running out of runway...

I am looking at the last 3 days bar graphs, and it appears that new cases are increasing daily, in The U.S. by about 28%, but deaths are only increasing by about 15% daily. That seems really good.
We really don't have a way to say for certain, how many are recovering, because many people don't have severe symptoms, therefore they go untested. They had it, thought it was a cold, and got over it.

I am looking at your bar graphs in the OP that you updated earlier today.
The last 3 days deaths increased by 20 for 2 days and we had 21 death increase today. An increase of 20 deaths over 250 to 270 would be an increase of less than 10% The higher that your number goes and your divisor stays at about the same, that means your increase percentage is dropping.
20 = 10% of 200. 8% of 250 =20
If this same trend holds for today, there will be around 294 deaths. If there are less than that, the doctors are winning.

I was off by 5% at first. the daily increase in deaths is actually slowed down slightly, while new cases have remained at a steady increase of 26-28%.
I just used the calculator finally, like I should have done to begin with. .08x248=19.84, .09x248=22.32, so your increase in death percentage for today was less than 9%.

getting downvoted for good news

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Given what I've seen of the data, we are getting towards the end of the exponential growth stage.

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The lag in reporting is definitely getting shorter, but still impacts our identification of inflection points. Having said that, I agree. If CA is through their curve (and relatively unscathed) and New York is peaking - that's about 1/6 of the population and probably closer to 1/3 of the high density population.

Florida and Texas will likely have a little easier run because more space and outside of Miami, Houston and Dallas, they don't have anything like NY/NJ population densities. Hell, that's close to 1/3 of the population and, outside of places like Atlanta, New Orleans and spots in the Midwest, that is the bulk of our dense urban areas.

I don't think Easter is all that optimistic to start easing guidelines for large swaths of the middle of the country. New York will likely be doing better by Easter as well.