re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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Also, appears that some statisticians predict the overall death rate to be comparable even without vaccine.

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What? Fewer than 40,000 people on average die of the flu in a given year. There has already been 3.5 the amount of deaths with only 40-70 percent of the total flu infections and both and rising, with a 3-4 week lag from infection death.

So on the low, it’s 4-5 times deadlier than the flu and in the high end, it’s 9-10 times as deadly PER INFECTION.

It's not only more deadly than the flu, it's clear that it's a vascular disease rather than a purely respiratory disease, so it ends up affecting many organ systems affected that flu doesn't touch.

It's a weird disease because about 30% of cases are asymptomatic, so for a lot of people the flu is worse, but at a population level it looks like COVID is 5-8x more lethal.

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CDC also is estimating death rate around .26% last I saw, so a little over double the flu. Has that changed?

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That was they only thing I’ve seen, and it was nonsense with no rationale or explanation for their parameters and the only sources in the document were from an Iranian study of almost exclusively Chinese data from January and February.

The best meta analysis I’ve seen has out it between 0.6 and 0.8 percent, so I think it’s clear that the IFR is likely 2-3 times the CDC estimate.

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Reported on here 476 deaths yesterday. WOM ended with a grand total of 380. Big difference

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Doesn't Chrome get his numbers from WOM?

Nope. And WOM usually has higher numbers because what he uses spits it out before WOM.

He uses Covidtracking.com

Crow, I used to use WoM; however, when I rebuilt the tracker I switched to using the COVID Tracking Project(CTP) numbers. CTP offers an automated data feed whereas with WOM I had to key all the numbers manually. There isn't anyway I could track every state and the US without it being automated.

There is some variation in the numbers on a daily basis as CTP cuts off their reporting at 4pm CST while WoM cuts off at 8pm. There are numbers that will show up on WOM that don't show up until the following day for CTP. It all works out over time.

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Just wondering how WOM had way less staying open longer. Dump on tracker? Bad number?

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How did the previous days look? If tracker shuts it off sooner, wouldn't any late afternoon results get reported the next day? So, that would make WOM for the following day appear less than tracker.

I would think that would be the reason, but maybe I am mistaken.

I gave up trying to make sense of the daily ebbs and flows in the numbers and am just focusing on the overall trending. At the end of the day if one is different from the other by +/- 26 deaths it doesn't really matter.