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NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
6227 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
The death rate is going up because the rate of deaths lags the rate of diagnosed cases by 7 to 10 days.


NorCali
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2015
270 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
Good stuff
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers of days/weeks for each of the 5 scenarios?
I heard Dr Birx allude to the fact that the older folks get symptoms quickly vs younger, which is interesting


AbuTheMonkey
Notre Dame Fan
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
6779 posts
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re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
Gotcha, thanks.


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McLemore
Member since Dec 2003
23037 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
And yet we still have no good overall infection figures.

So, it's still a lot of pissing in the wind.

It doesn't mean the current figures can't be directionally informative. But our universe of infection (and thus inoculation/immunity, as an aside of course) is so indeterminate as to render so many of the models potentially useless.


ConwayGamecock
South Carolina Fan
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9027 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

New York is testing more people per capita than anywhere in the world


Yeah I meant making more effort to contain and control (quarantine) NYC, rather than more testing. We already pretty much have a good understanding of what the virus is doing inside there, at this point.....

NYC is kinda for us a larger scale version of what that religious church group was for South Korea. Once they contained that group, they started getting a solid grip on their outbreak.....
This post was edited on 3/25 at 10:37 pm


the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
66820 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

Just curious, where are you getting these numbers of days/weeks for each of the 5 scenarios?


The first case diagnosed in the US was a pretty textbook case.

LINK

Here’s a case study.


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ConwayGamecock
South Carolina Fan
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9027 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

Good stuff
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers of days/weeks for each of the 5 scenarios?
I heard Dr Birx allude to the fact that the older folks get symptoms quickly vs younger, which is interesting


It would seem to me the older folks' immunity systems are weaker than the younger folks' are, and they are dealing with more pre-existing conditions not associated with COVID-19 but that still weakens their immune systems, that the COVID-19 further exacerbates......


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the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
66820 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
You gonna retest asymptomatic people who test negative every week? Every two weeks? What’s the plan?


DMAN1968
Member since Apr 2019
1128 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

Yeah I meant making more effort to contain and control (quarantine) NYC

New Yorkers have been fleeing the city for awhile now...a lot of them. Watch Florida for a future hotspot. They have started telling people to self quarantine for 14 days on arrival but who knows. You have to stock the house when you arrive so you have to go out some.

Again, thanks Chrome.


NorthEndZone
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2008
6227 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

no good overall infection figures


Agreed. That is why is it critical that the most vulnerable to infection and serious effects remain as isolated as possible. Some seemingly uninfected people are carrying the virus.


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TigerFanatic99
Chicago Cubs Fan
South Bend, Indiana
Member since Jan 2007
14734 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
That's what I don't get. How is New York still allowing the level of travel and people being out that they are. Pictures from just yesterday of packed subway cars.

That city should be locked down like Wuhan at this point.


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ConwayGamecock
South Carolina Fan
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9027 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

You gonna retest asymptomatic people who test negative every week? Every two weeks? What’s the plan?


I was more thinking of this movie I saw a while back, "Escape from New York"??


Naah, but all kidding aside, Cuomo seems to be heading more in that direction. But we have an opportunity of as known of a major hot spot of infection in the U.S. as we have....


ConwayGamecock
South Carolina Fan
South Carolina
Member since Jan 2012
9027 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
On another note of interest looking at the data, Washington was once one of the major areas - if not the first area - of infection (wasn't there a retirement home that was swimming in it?), and their daily new cases seem to be dropping a good bit. While the other top states in their range are getting 500 or more new cases, they only had 119 new cases.....


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
619 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
A positive sign, the volume of testing appears to be really ramping up now.





the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
66820 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
120,000 tests today.

Wow.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
619 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
That should cause a spike in case numbers in a day or five depending on the average turn time for tests now.


the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
66820 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
Will new cases trend back above deaths?


DMAN1968
Member since Apr 2019
1128 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
quote:

A positive sign, the volume of testing appears to be really ramping up now.

So I guess the really positive sign would be if new infections do not increase along with the big ramp up in new testing. I know theory says otherwise but it would be nice to see.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
619 posts

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
If that isn’t an anomaly and they maintain that cadence there is going to be an explosion in number of cases. 13% of tests are coming back positive, so the math is simple.


the808bass
Louisville Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
66820 posts
 Online 

re: UPDATED: Daily COVID-19 Stats as of 8:58 PM CST 4/5/20 Final Numbers for the day
If we’re testing more and more liberally, the number of positive cases per test should drop as well.


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