- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 12/23/14 at 10:41 am to boosiebadazz
Posted on 12/23/14 at 10:41 am to boosiebadazz
quote:
It's essentially economic mutually assured destruction. Putin isn't pushing the button first.
What if he has nothing left to lose?
1
Posted on 12/23/14 at 10:44 am to ironsides
quote:
Curious about what you think of this:
quote:Neville Chamberlain could not have said it better....
Basically the guy's point is, as weak as Russia is, we really shouldn't frick with Putin because he still holds pretty big hammer......
Posted on 12/23/14 at 10:47 am to SoulGlo
quote:
Russia has more than $600 billion in debt
All this over such a paltry number.
Obommba spends that in a day, and has no clue the money isn't "in the bank".
Posted on 12/23/14 at 10:54 am to ironsides
Believe it or not, he's still a rational, self-interested actor.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 11:45 am to Jagd Tiger
Seems former finance minister Alexei Kudrin disagrees with many of the "experts" on this board:
quote:
Kudrin, one of few to criticize President Vladimir Putin, said he believed the decline in the rouble could be attributed primarily to the sanctions, imposed following Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region and its subsequent support for loyalist fighters in the east.
quote:
Kudrin -- a darling of investors who is credited with building Russia's $170 billion sovereign wealth funds -- warned that Russia risked having its debt downgraded to junk status in 2015.
"Today, I can say that we have entered or are entering a real, full-fledged economic crisis. Next year we will feel it clearly," the former minister told a news conference.
"The government has not been quick enough to address the situation ... I am yet to hear ... its clear assessment of the current situation."
Kudrin quit in 2011 in protest at proposals to increase defense spending, although he and Putin are still believed to be close.
quote:LINK
His outlook for the economy next year was bleak: Even if the price of oil rose to $80 per barrel, gross domestic product was still likely to fall by more than 2 percent in 2015, Kudrin said. At $60 per barrel GDP would decline by 4 percent or more, he added, echoing the central bank's latest assessment, published last week.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 12:20 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Standard & Poor's on Tuesday put Russia on CreditWatch Negative.
S&P said it placed its 'BBB-/A-3' long- and short-term foreign-currency sovereign ratings and 'BBB/A-2' local-currency sovereign credit ratings on Russia on CreditWatch with negative implications.
LINK
Posted on 12/23/14 at 12:23 pm to Vegas Bengal
VB:
I downvoted your post because it adds nothing to the conversation.
Your suck-fest WRT everything Obama continues, and I downvote and condemn your shameless cheerleading for Obama. You are boring, so, I wish I could downvote your twice, just for being so boring.
Obama supported imposition of economic sanctions on Russia in response to the armed invasion of a neighboring country. That's something that any US POTUS would do, unless he were a Russian double-agent on the Kremlin's payroll.
So, stop trying to make us all believe that Obama did something innovative, courageous and epic.
Thanks.
PS If your post was not really intended to praise Obama for doing the obvious, then, forget everything I posted here.
I downvoted your post because it adds nothing to the conversation.
Your suck-fest WRT everything Obama continues, and I downvote and condemn your shameless cheerleading for Obama. You are boring, so, I wish I could downvote your twice, just for being so boring.
Obama supported imposition of economic sanctions on Russia in response to the armed invasion of a neighboring country. That's something that any US POTUS would do, unless he were a Russian double-agent on the Kremlin's payroll.
So, stop trying to make us all believe that Obama did something innovative, courageous and epic.
Thanks.
PS If your post was not really intended to praise Obama for doing the obvious, then, forget everything I posted here.
This post was edited on 12/23/14 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 12/23/14 at 12:23 pm to Vegas Bengal
quote:
Seems former finance minister Alexei Kudrin disagrees with many of the "experts" on this board:
said he believed the decline in the rouble could be attributed primarily to the sanctions
If you're saying I've said differently from what your Kudrin quote says, please provide a link. Thanks.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 12:38 pm to Jagd Tiger
Jagd Tiger,
I down voted your post because it adds nothing to the conversation.
Your irrational hate-fest WRT everything Obama continues, and I downvote and condemn your shameless character assassination against Obama. You are boring, so, I wish I could downvote your twice, just for being so boring.
I down voted your post because it adds nothing to the conversation.
Your irrational hate-fest WRT everything Obama continues, and I downvote and condemn your shameless character assassination against Obama. You are boring, so, I wish I could downvote your twice, just for being so boring.
This post was edited on 12/23/14 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 12/23/14 at 12:39 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
I can't see OPEC bailing Putin out as this is one of their intended goals.
LINK
quote:
Brent crude crashed below the $60 per barrel level again on Monday after Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said his country would not intervene to revive prices.
Ali al-Naimi – who oversees the world’s largest exporter of crude – said in an interview that even if the price of oil fell to $20 per barrel the kingdom would do nothing to arrest the decline. . . .
The minister – who is the most powerful voice with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) – said that the cartel had changed its strategy from defending a certain price to focusing on retaining its market share.
It doesn't look like Russia can count on any help from OPEC to raise oil prices in the near future.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 6:34 pm to LSURussian
The 15th largest bank (by deposits) in Russia failed yesterday. The central bank is trying to find "an investor" to salvage the bank's depositors.
LINK
quote:
The central bank remains reluctant to inject liquidity into banks because it's concerned the money will be spent on buying foreign currency, said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Moscow-based Alfa Bank.
That risks inflaming the banking industry's problems, she said by e-mail. "Many banks may turn into zombie-like structures, which in the future may end up costing the government even more because they'll have to be rescued," Orlova said.
Standard & Poor's said today it may cut Russia's credit rating to junk in part because of concern about the banking system.
LINK
Posted on 12/23/14 at 6:36 pm to LSURussian
One of CNBC's predictions for 2015 . . . Russia will default on its sovereign debt.
JFWIW.
JFWIW.
Posted on 12/23/14 at 6:41 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
One of CNBC's predictions for 2015 . . . Russia will default on its sovereign debt.
Big Scrub, TX will be here shortly to explain why it won't happen....
Posted on 12/23/14 at 10:58 pm to LSURussian
An endorsement from CNBC is the death knell. Condolences Russian 
Posted on 12/24/14 at 3:38 am to LSURussian
quote:
So, IMO, it's not a "socialism" issue, it's an example of a nouveau-dictator wanting to make his place in the long annals of Russian history by trying to re-establish the Russian Empire. He truly wants to go down in Russian history known as "Putin the Great."
Posted on 12/29/14 at 2:15 pm to StraightCashHomey21
Russia is one debt grade above junk, and now this: Russia empties the vault to prop up the ruble
Posted on 12/29/14 at 2:22 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Big Scrub, TX will be here shortly to explain why it won't happen....
It certainly might happen. It just won't explain your reluctance to explain why you are so off-market with the prediction.
By way of update: CDS prices still predicting only a 6% chance of default in the next 12 months.
LINK
This post was edited on 12/29/14 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 12/29/14 at 3:42 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
explain why you are so off-market with the prediction.
quote:Five weeks ago when you criticized my prediction the CDS spread had Russia at a 3.1% chance of default. Now only five weeks later, it's 6.1%.
CDS prices still predicting only a 6%
Five weeks ago the CDS spread was 263 basis points. Today it is 439 bp.
Russia's five-year bonds are now yielding 500 bp over the same maturity U.S. bond. That means Russia's five year debt is considered riskier than Lebanon's debt.
A story over the weekend said S&P may cut Russia's sovereign debt credit rating to junk status as soon as before the end of this week.
The ruble weakened against the dollar by almost 10% just TODAY.
It looks like the "market," as you keep calling it, is moving in the direction of my prediction and not the other way around.
This post was edited on 12/29/14 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 12/29/14 at 5:35 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Five weeks ago when you criticized my prediction the CDS spread had Russia at a 3.1% chance of default. Now only five weeks later, it's 6.1%. Five weeks ago the CDS spread was 263 basis points. Today it is 439 bp.
Yep. It's moved from 24:1 to 16:1...all against something you are labeling a 100% certainty. Sounds like free money to me.
quote:
Russia's five-year bonds are now yielding 500 bp over the same maturity U.S. bond. That means Russia's five year debt is considered riskier than Lebanon's debt.
Yes, and?
quote:
A story over the weekend said S&P may cut Russia's sovereign debt credit rating to junk status as soon as before the end of this week.
Yes, and?
quote:
The ruble weakened against the dollar by almost 10% just TODAY.
Yes, and?
quote:
It looks like the "market," as you keep calling it, is moving in the direction of my prediction and not the other way around.
Spreads widening a bit is a very natural response to oil plummeting almost 50% (not mentioned ANYWHERE in your OP, btw). Just look at Venezuela...a country probably in markedly worse straits, and you'll see the probably of default there (according to CDS) is still only like 60% over the next 12 months.
If your OP had simply said:
Hey guys, just FYI, but Russia is looking pretty bad. They had some trouble with some bond sales...I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some really stressed pricing here (particularly if oil goes down a lot). If things get REALLY bad, I can imagine maybe a default like in 1998, although the CDS markets really are pricing in almost no chance of this happening.
...then that would have been one thing. Instead, you declared they would default within 6 months, and then under mild pressure from me, you doubled that estimate. I guess I must have been right about SOMETHING if I caused you to change your time estimate so quickly.
Your post would have been much more informative/interesting if instead you had said: "here's a list of countries you can expect to do shitty if the price of oil plummets by half".
In any event, you seem to think I am "predicting" that all will be peach in Russia. I am not. I am simply wondering why fairly liquid trading markets are so far out-of-phase with your predictions. My guess is it's because you are wrong.
Posted on 12/29/14 at 5:48 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Has it been 6 months already since I started this thread? My calendar says it's only been 3 months as of today.
My guess is it's because you are wrong.
quote:
Yes, and?
quote:
Yes, and?
quote:
Yes, and?
Answer:
quote:
It looks like the "market," as you keep calling it, is moving in the direction of my prediction and not the other way around.
You're trying way too hard. And for what? I can't figure it out. Neither can all the other posters who have called you out in this thread....
Page 20 of 26
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News