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Trump's Internal Polls Includes Trafalgar Group Polling; MN Poll Shows Positive Outlook
Posted on 8/20/20 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 12:33 pm
We've discussed Trafalgar plenty here recently but this is the only pollster I trust right now. They are the only one that got 2016 right, and Trump's admin trusts them enough that they've recently used them for their internal polling, according to WaPo. In 2016 they nailed the electoral college vote down to the number, 306-232. The only difference was they had NV (6) and NH (4) red and WI (10) blue, but those cancelled each other out in the electoral college.
WaPo: If these are the polls he’s using, no wonder Trump thinks 2020 is going well
RCP: Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again
What the above tells me is that none of the other pollsters have learned their lesson from 2016 and continue to use horrible polling methods. On average, they continue to be 7 points off from the only pollster that got the last election right, roughly the same margin as in 2016. All of that to set up this... This is the Trafalgar Group's MN statewide presidential poll from 7/27
...and this is the MN statewide presidential poll from 8/20. Trump has made up nearly 5 points in less than a month! Rasmussen also shows Trump's approval above 50% today. Things are trending nicely and we're down to about 10 weeks until the election
WaPo: If these are the polls he’s using, no wonder Trump thinks 2020 is going well
RCP: Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again
quote:
Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- two key states he carried -- heading into Election Day. (He did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.) Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton.
quote:
Over and over, we’ve heard Trump wave away the idea that he’s in trouble in November, citing unspecified polls that show him doing well... The Wisconsin poll is from the Trafalgar Group; the Arizona and North Carolina ones from Gravis Marketing, commissioned by One America News; the Montana poll is from the University of Montana.
What the above tells me is that none of the other pollsters have learned their lesson from 2016 and continue to use horrible polling methods. On average, they continue to be 7 points off from the only pollster that got the last election right, roughly the same margin as in 2016. All of that to set up this... This is the Trafalgar Group's MN statewide presidential poll from 7/27
...and this is the MN statewide presidential poll from 8/20. Trump has made up nearly 5 points in less than a month! Rasmussen also shows Trump's approval above 50% today. Things are trending nicely and we're down to about 10 weeks until the election
3
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:08 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
Stopped at "poll".
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:11 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
Other pollsters are using registered voters and I believe Trafalgar uses Likely voters, which is regarded as more accurate. Plus pollsters are using D+10 to +14 samples.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:14 pm to joeyjoejoeshabadoo
I do wonder what the differences in their polling are though that create such a wide margin from others. Especially when Trafalgar is proven to be more accurate. Are the rest all intentionally meaning to be deceptive? Or is Trafalgar the only one asking the right questions?
ETA: ahh makes sense. I couldnt look at the pdf poll report, blocked on my work computer
ETA: ahh makes sense. I couldnt look at the pdf poll report, blocked on my work computer
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 1:16 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:16 pm to Jake88
Not that Jake. All of the other polls are continuing to put slanted D+ on the people they are weighing. For Gods knows what reason they are not following the actual exit polls in 2016 which was literally D+4.
All of these polls out from msm outlets have D+7, D+9 etc.
It makes no sense why you wouldn't literally use the weighted avg from 2016.
All of these polls out from msm outlets have D+7, D+9 etc.
It makes no sense why you wouldn't literally use the weighted avg from 2016.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:18 pm to Jake88
quote:
Other pollsters are using registered voters and I believe Trafalgar uses Likely voters, which is regarded as more accurate. Plus pollsters are using D+10 to +14 samples.
The difference in their methodology is that they ask likely voters who they think their neighbor(s) will be voting for, thus eliminating the "shy Tory" effect where Trump voters won't/don't disclose for who they are voting.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:19 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
He attempts to find the hidden Trump vote. People don’t answer if they are voting for Trump. He asks questions like “do you think your neighbor is voting for Trump”
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:23 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
All polls should be taken with a grain of salt this election. The shear amount of hate for OMB is something we've never seen before.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:23 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:by design to depress trump voter turnout.
Are the rest all intentionally meaning to be deceptive?
This post was edited on 8/20/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 8/20/20 at 1:31 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
I do wonder what the differences in their polling are though that create such a wide margin from others.
The house eunuch over at CNN said their first poll is as poll of "adults". Then "registered voters". Then "likely voters".
In general all the media polls do this and this is why EVERY pundit says, "however, we do expect polls to tighten as election day approaches."
Don't take the media polls seriously without looking a little deeper into the poll methodology. This is like the WWE. They are creating suspense and entertainment.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:11 pm to Mrtommorrow1987
quote:
People don’t answer if they are voting for Trump.
All I know is that I was around 15 people at a party this past weekend and all 15 were all-in for Trump. Four years ago four of them were against him.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:12 pm to Jake88
quote:
Plus pollsters are using D+10 to +14 samples.
Why are samples inevitably favoring Dems? Never understood that.
Posted on 8/20/20 at 2:39 pm to idlewatcher
If those are Trump's internals now, before the debate, in the middle of COVID, he is going to skull frick Biden
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