re: Trump's Hardcore Base v. DeSantis/Others

quote:

---

I thought DeSantis endorsed those guys in the general, not the primary.

---

Right. I don't believe he gave any endorsements in the primary so primary endorsements are basically irrelevant if we are trying to put some kind of gauge on his political influence.

quote:

---

The hard-core Trumpers will vote for him, no matter what. Remember, these are morons who thought QAnon was real. And he’ll get slaughtered in the general election. Stupid is as stupid does.

---

Well said.

quote:

---

Georgia

---

Kemp would actually campaign with DeSantis which will definitely help. Saw recently where Kemp's approval rating in GA is over 60%. My guess is DeSantis gets 51-52% in GA and wins by 4-5% Someone who isn't toxic to suburbanites in the WH would also help if Kemp wants to run for Senate in 2026. Even in a blue midterm, if DeSantis is in the WH he'd be the favorite against Ossoff.

quote:

---

Arizona

---

I like DeSantis in AZ by a few points. He won't be toxic to suburban voters in Maricopa. Another crucial thing would be who the candidate for Senate is. If AZ Republicans are stupid enough to nominate a loser and grifter like Kari Lake that could complicate things and provide an anchor, although I would still give the edge to DeSantis. If they're smart enough to nominate a winner like Kimberly Yee then DeSantis wins no questions asked and there's a decent chance we flip that Senate seat.

quote:

---

WI, PA, NV

---

DeSantis would win Wisconsin. The PVI is Republican and Trump underperformed down-ballot Republicans in both 2016 and 2020. In 2016, Ron Johnson badly outperformed him. In 2020, close to 90K people voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump.

PA isn't as certain as Wisconsin but I think it would go to DeSantis. He'd outperform Trump in the suburbs by a lot and considering that he does well with rural voters, he could underperform Trump by 1-2% in the rural counties and still win. Over 180K people in 2020 voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump.

NV would likely be closer, but it's a weird state. It's a very easy state for Republicans to be competitive in but a hard state to win, if that makes sense. You basically need to win Washoe County (Reno) by 4-5 points and then lose Clark County (Vegas) by no more than 7 points to win. In 2020 between 18-19K people in NV voted for at least 1 down-ballot Republican but not Trump.

Great analysis thanks for posting

quote:

---

He won Florida by 20 points, running on his record as governor. He barely won running on Trump's endorsement.

---

A terrible misleading attempt..try again. DeSantis was LOSING in the polls in June 2018 before Trump endorsed, and honestly shouldn't have even had to. Why? Florida had 5 straight R govs before DeSantis... And he was losing to a meth head lol. Trump had to get DeSantis over the finish line. Don't act like the endorsement held DeSantis back. DeSantis was able to do a really great job in the state of Florida but he had to have serious help to get the chance to do it.

Just goes to show you how dumb the average voter can be. Can you imagine Florida with Gillum as gov? Holy shite. I think Trump having to endorse DeSantis worked out for Trump though too. He didn't even want to get involved per WH then, but now he can tout all the bullshite he's saying now.