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re: Trump Tax Windfall Going to Capex Way Faster Than Stock Buyback, largest capex in 7 years
Posted on 5/2/18 at 9:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 5/2/18 at 9:18 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Too early to tell. Wait til 2nd quarter numbers.
0
Posted on 5/2/18 at 9:20 pm to CptBengal
quote:
you mean they arent just putting it in a box and burying it like Losh said?
In other words, "wait, so capitalism works?"
Posted on 5/3/18 at 8:30 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
well jeez bengal, it's not like i'm arguing that tax cuts don't have benefits here. but if they don't accrue far and away towards big increases in investment
Bjit the initial data, i.e. this thread, suggests exactly that.
Come on man
Posted on 5/3/18 at 8:31 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:A rise in CAPEX in the early/mid 80s led to a more than decade long economic boom. It was a significant leading indicator.
Trump Tax Windfall Going to Capex Way Faster Than Stock Buyback, largest capex in 7 years
Posted on 5/3/18 at 8:58 am to CptBengal
quote:
Bjit the initial data, i.e. this thread, suggests exactly that.
Come on man
first, we already have other data- official and comprehensive data- on monthly y/y wages and quarterly y/y investment, and they suggest ho-hum for such a yuge tax cut. (they actually suggest ho-hum for this point of a business cycle even if there weren't a tax cut!)
second, this data isn't great because as i have pointed out, it is nonrepresentative and presented in a suspiciously arbitrary fashion that doesn't take into account or even mention the relative size of each, or recent trends. but it purports to compare capex to other uses for the windfall anyway.
tbh this looks very much like a reach for comforting news, and the victorious tone of the writeup despite that makes it look sundance-quality
This post was edited on 5/3/18 at 9:01 am
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:03 am to 90proofprofessional
i will go ahead and unnecessarily clarify that i am not predicting that capex won't boom
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:08 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i will go ahead and unnecessarily clarify that i am not predicting that capex won't boom
thank you, now I can ignorantly cheerlead
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:10 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
As head of an IT Dept, I do love it when we can get increases to CapEx.
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:15 am to KeyserSoze999
quote:
thank you, now I can ignorantly cheerlead
it basically has to boom. and depending on what one means by "boom", it could boom and the whole attempt at accelerating growth could flop anyway, if it doesn't boom enough
that's why news of increases in buybacks or dividends should be worrisome. even one-time bonuses aren't great
This post was edited on 5/3/18 at 9:15 am
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:29 am to 90proofprofessional
its a start, and we could very well get another cut after Nov 2018
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:32 am to KeyserSoze999
i don't support another cut if it is not preceded by a spending cut, and i mean the kind that cuts now, not some unspecified shite at some unspecified time in the future
i didn't support the TCJA on the same grounds
i didn't support the TCJA on the same grounds
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:41 am to 90proofprofessional
The percent change in gross private domestic investment has been positive and accelerating in four of the five quarters of Trump's presidency so far. While not unprecedented, it is still a very good sign.
Posted on 5/3/18 at 9:48 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
I have no doubt that some of that money is going to capex, but is percentage growth really the important statistic here as opposed to total expenditure? If you werent spending shite on capex to begin with then a 39% increase of not shite isnt shite. Apple for example is using 100B of 252B on stock buybacks. Likewise, if buyback expenditures already dwarfed capex this would also skew the point here.
Either way, happy to see companies boosting capex.
Either way, happy to see companies boosting capex.
Posted on 5/3/18 at 10:05 am to 90proofprofessional
Pardon my ignorance, but wouldn't the ideal result be somewhere near an even split between capex and investment?
For example, this part:
Seems to paint shareholders with a very broad brush. How many people that aren't Wall Street fat cats are shareholders? Pension and other retirement funds?
I understand from the article and posts including yours that capex is seen as better for long term corporate health, but it's not like with buybacks/dividends the money is getting burned or buried. Are we splitting hairs?
For example, this part:
quote:
head directly to the stock market and be harvested by shareholders already fattened by a nine-year bull market.
Seems to paint shareholders with a very broad brush. How many people that aren't Wall Street fat cats are shareholders? Pension and other retirement funds?
I understand from the article and posts including yours that capex is seen as better for long term corporate health, but it's not like with buybacks/dividends the money is getting burned or buried. Are we splitting hairs?
Posted on 5/3/18 at 10:07 am to Cruiserhog
This is actually a pretty logical and intelligent discussion by both sides, even educational.
Get the frick out of here with your stupid shite.
Get the frick out of here with your stupid shite.
Posted on 5/3/18 at 12:14 pm to Havoc
quote:
wouldn't the ideal result be somewhere near an even split between capex and investment
capex is just a subset of investment
usually it's taken to mean investment in physical capital like machinery (best) or other physical property
quote:
understand from the article and posts including yours that capex is seen as better for long term corporate health
it's far more important than just corporate health. in supply-side theory, that investment is what drives increases in worker productivity and leads to the real economic growth, the kind that sustains itself
quote:
it's not like with buybacks/dividends the money is getting burned or buried
it's true that consumption made possible by those buybacks/dividends stimulates the economy too via the demand channel. and some of that may eventually go back to physical capex somewhere else. but to the extent those resources go to consumption rather than investment, the supply-side impact is watered down
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