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Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that

Posted on 10/15/19 at 10:36 pm
Posted by Street Hawk
Member since Nov 2014
3460 posts
Posted on 10/15/19 at 10:36 pm
quote:

President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t.

He’s going to absolutely adore this one.

According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.

In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.


Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming.

“In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model,” the report said, “we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction.” Here’s Moody’s track record, including a 2016 adjustment for the turnout variable:



LINK
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
81781 posts
Posted on 10/15/19 at 10:39 pm to
It's crazy that those projected EV totals for Trump are all seriously right in line with his most realistic tallies.

I think his best-case map (realistically speaking) is below.

This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 10:43 pm
Posted by GeauxLSUGeaux
1 room down from Erin Andrews
Member since May 2004
23311 posts
Posted on 10/15/19 at 10:50 pm to
The democrats are running on open borders, free healthcare for illegals, and gun confiscation.

I don’t need a model prediction to know what’s about to happen.
This post was edited on 10/15/19 at 10:51 pm
Posted by cardswinagain
Member since Jun 2013
11883 posts
Posted on 10/15/19 at 11:11 pm to
And what's funny is the left actually believes that is what the majority of this country wants
Posted by GeorgePaton
God's Country
Member since May 2017
4495 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:33 am to
Re-elect Donald Trump and regain control of the U. S. Congress. If we want to continue and expand the economic growth we have now under Trump......that's what WE have to do.

Trump delivers......the democrats oppose.

JOBS, JOB, JOBS, and more JOBS.
Posted by Revelator
Member since Nov 2008
58027 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:35 am to
Yep. I started a thread on this earlier.
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
43337 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:39 am to
That looks about right with the exception of Virginia. NOVA will ensure VA stays blue from now on.

Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
134865 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:47 am to
He isn't winning MN
Posted by tigerterrace
Mobile, Alabama
Member since Sep 2016
3397 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:51 am to
I don't know I think Omar might help him in Minnesota. The rest of the state has a front seat to what she is doing.

Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13104 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 7:56 am to
I think NV would flip before VA
Posted by Ssubba
Member since Oct 2014
6617 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 9:14 am to
Michigan and Pennsylvania are both going to be tremendously tough and will likely be ground zero in the general election. The turn out in detroit and other urban voters was laughable and hurt Clinton big time. At this point I think democrats will concede Ohio.
This post was edited on 10/16/19 at 9:15 am
Posted by Ragnar Danneskjold
North of you
Member since Dec 2015
412 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 10:27 am to
quote:

He isn't winning MN


They said the same thing about Michigan (and maybe Wisconsin?) In 2016. Most of rural MN likes him very much. The Iron Range especially.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90627 posts
Posted on 10/16/19 at 10:55 am to
I think Trump has a shot at Nevada and NM more than Virginia
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