re: Trump announces ceasefire between Russia & Ukraine

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The key is Ukraine ain't losing.

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I guess losing land and running out of men isn't losing.

That's the problem with consuming info from ISW or Kiev Dependent. They're having a massive manpower shortage, each body exchange with Russia is 40 Russian dead for 1000 dead Ukrainians. Ukrine's "offenseive" netted negative gains for Feb-March somehow. Russia is pounding them with 100s of drones and missiles daily, Zelensky wrote a decree a week ago barring 18-22 year old from leaving the county. He's constantly asking to return the refugees. Their forced mobilization problem is spiraling out of control.

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Ukraine's recent strength came after the US pulled out of almost all aid, Europe stepped up, but really, it is the Ukrainian homegrown MIC that has really stepped up. Even the Arabian states are getting consultations from Ukraine in drone warfare.

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they have no real air defense with their most reliable means being flying hobby planes and shooting a machinge gun out the window. Their front line defense relies entirely on 7'' hobby FPV drone with a taped/zip tied IED with a short circuit wire switch tied to a 9V battery. It works, Hamas and Hesbollah are killing Israelis with it, but it's not some great development of warfare. Russia has the same and many times the volume. Both Ukraine and Russia get motors, flight controllers, cameras and receivers from China and maybe a little US.

Their "long-range drone" development evolved to slapping a Starlink on a fixed wing drone with a single piston moped motor or a small water skiff(naval drones). It is entirely dependent on Starlink and US intel, so if USA actaully pulled it, they'd have basically nothing left. Their "drone production" also relies largely on brits and US testing drones there like the ex-Google CEO who pumped money to testing Hornet drones there. They just give Ukros the drones.

Reality is most of their long-range attack drones can be made by hobbyists in a garage with a modest budget. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said Ukraine's drone industry is "housewives with 3-D printers in the kitchen" which isn't too far from the truth.

Ukraine's own Defnese minister said they don't produce anything, they just put together Chinese and Western parts. The improvise, but they don't actually produce anything new.

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That's the problem with consuming info from ISW or Kiev Dependent

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I guess losing land and running out of men isn't losing.

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Using your same approach:

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That's the problem with consuming info from ISW or Kiev Dependent.

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I don't use either of them as sources.

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They're having a massive manpower shortage, each body exchange with Russia is 40 Russian dead for 1000 dead Ukrainians.

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Are you making the inference that the kill ratio is 25 to 1?

1. If that was true the war would have been over years ago.
2. That doesn't take into account how Ukraine and Russia deal with casualties and the differences in the way each is conducting war in the gray zone.

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Ukrine's "offenseive" netted negative gains for Feb-March somehow.

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The Russian spring offensive went nowhere. They have been gaining less and less land month over month for most of the last year. April marked the first time since the Thunder Runs that Ukraine actually had a net gain. It is that slow momentum shift I mentioned.

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Russia is pounding them with 100s of drones and missiles daily,

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Same with Ukraine, they just have adapted to the drone battlefield better

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Zelensky wrote a decree a week ago barring 18-22 year old from leaving the county. He's constantly asking to return the refugees. Their forced mobilization problem is spiraling out of control.

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Soimilar to the problems Russia is having evidenced by the African mercenaries showing up on the battlefield recently. Ukraine has a pure manpower issue, Putin has a political capital issue. Listen to what is being said on Russia 1 and what is written in the newspapers, all of which are directly or indirectly state-controlled. This is the easiest way to accurately keep up with the balance of power in the war.

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they have no real air defense with their most reliable means being flying hobby planes and shooting a machinge gun out the window. Their front line defense relies entirely on 7'' hobby FPV drone with a taped/zip tied IED with a short circuit wire switch tied to a 9V battery.

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If you mean Ukraine by they then they have a multi-layered air defence. Patriot, IRIS, SAMP and NASAM for long and mid-range intercepting. Their short range is made up of a lot of the low cost drones you suggest but also moving toward more specialized home grown drones like the Sting and Jedi which are much more than zip-tied together. Also talking down 3D printed parts means you know nothing about 3D printing.

Sting



Jedi

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Russia has the same and many times the volume

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Unlikely, but if they do it just shows how much better Ukraine is doing on the tactics side.

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Their "long-range drone" development evolved to slapping a Starlink on a fixed wing drone with a single piston moped motor or a small water skiff(naval drones). It is entirely dependent on Starlink and US intel, so if USA actaully pulled it, they'd have basically nothing left. Their "drone production" also relies largely on brits and US testing drones there like the ex-Google CEO who pumped money to testing Hornet drones there. They just give Ukros the drones.

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The long range drones are similar to the Russian version of the Iranian Shahad which is a derivation of the US LUCAS. The Batyar, for example, is made with primarily Ukranian parts and is a Ukranian design. Part of the Batyar's design criteria is that it is not dependent on Starlink. Starlink would be a problem is pulled from Ukraine, and if the US quit paying their portion someone else would have to, Poland is shouldering a lot of that burden now. If Musk pulls Starlink it is a different story, but he would be throwing away revenue.

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Reality is most of their long-range attack drones can be made by hobbyists in a garage with a modest budget. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said Ukraine's drone industry is "housewives with 3-D printers in the kitchen" which isn't too far from the truth.

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Most, probably but not all. As I said the Ukranian MIC is growing.

It is interesting you left out the cruise missles which are what have been putting large warheads on strategic targets for the last couple of months. The drones are primarily a nuisance and good at sucking up Russian air defence assets. The cruise missiles like the Fire Point Flamingo FP-5 that can put a 2500 pound warhead on target. This is possible due to the depletion of Russian air defense assets.


The key here is this should have been a highly asymmetrical war. If not finished in the 3 days Putin predicted it should have been a week at most. Russia blew the interdiction of the Anatov airport horribly and their land invasion was a clusterfrick. Russia has lost every day of the war and have been pulled into a basic draw with Ukraine that in a few weeks will have lasted longer than WWI. They have lost huge face in the world and with their allies. China is now looking across the South China Sea and seeing a different set of calculus than they did when Xi expressed their 2027 plan. Ukraine is winning by any metric that anyone outside Kiev would have set up in Feb of 2022. The only way anyone can see this as a loss for them so far has moved the goalposts so far since 2022 they are now over the horizon. Russia hasn't even been able to establish air superiority. They have been reduced to using their "5th gen" Su-57 to stand off bombing runs inside their own airspace. Ukraine has exposed the Bear as a stuffed one you buy in an airport gift shop. Putin having to scale back the biggest military celebration of the year is just another loss. The Russian conventional military is nothing but smoke, myth, and a Potemkin pile of toothpicks.

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Kind of sad that Donald had to jump in and try to take credit.

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Taking into account the numerous requests, for the humanitarian purpose outlined in the negotiations with the American side on May 8, 2026, I resolve:

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Maybe you should read the Ukrainian decree.

Ukraine is literally kidnapping men off the streets and forcing them into the army, and they quickly desert. Ukrainian civilians are even physically attacking and even shooting at the Ukrainian recruitment thugs.

Russia isn’t using “meatwaves,” they haven’t in years. Also, North Korean troops only fought in Kursk, not in Ukraine. They are all back in North Korea.

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Russia’s Defense Ministry declared a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine for Friday and Saturday to mark the 81st anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II

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TIL unilateral means both sides agreed.

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Using your same approach:

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Strawman and a bad one.

Which shows that you don't know how to use AI. AI Google gathers the slop from Ukraine favoring sources. In fact a lot of its info is directly from ISW, Kiev Dependent, and many other "NAFO" propaganda outlets. Even with that, it cannot diminish the manpower issue Ukraine has or say that Russia problems are anywhere near the same. Russia can still recruit enough via contract while Ukraine has to resort to beating dudes and shoving them in the vans via those gangs of man grabbers.

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Are you making the inference that the kill ratio is 25 to 1? 1. If that was true the war would have been over years ago. 2. That doesn't take into account how Ukraine and Russia deal with casualties and the differences in the way each is conducting war in the gray zone.

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Where do you think the Ukrainian army vanished to and now having to snatch people who cant/unwilling to fight? They had to fend off recruits in the beginning of war to now turning Ukraine into an open air prison. Put two and two together.

During Ukraine's "offensive" in the last 3 months where they gained nothing since they still were not able to gather up any more than 40 of their own bodies to 1000 Russia could produce. This has been the body exchanges:

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I don't use either of them as sources.

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Sure you dont't. /S You clearly gathered pro-Ukrainian propaganda slop from somehwere. Like this bit.

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drones like the Sting and Jedi which are much more than zip-tied together. Also talking down 3D printed parts means you know nothing about 3D printing.

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As if you do. 3D printed race drones copied from hobbyists with Chinese motors, servos, and internals isn't some kind of a breakthrough. 3D printing implies they need a 3D printer which they also didn't make. Again, often times they have to slap them onto some cargo plane and launch from a wing because of their range issue. There's little to no proof of their utility, but that of course will never stop Zelensky from trying to sell it lol. He literally tried to exchange a hobby drone tech for Tomahaws with Trump, but was rebuffed because it's foolish. It's improvisation, but not some kind of new novel tech. People having been racing FPV drones and 3D printing that design long before Ukraine was at war. Basically anything Ukraine produces I can slap together too with the same parts or 3D print if I need something.

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Unlikely, but if they do it just shows how much better Ukraine is doing on the tactics side.

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Ukraine is winning by any metric that anyone outside Kiev would have set up in Feb of 2022.

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Tell me you're deep on NAFO propaganda on X without telling me. Russia outdrones them 5:1 This is from Kiev Post. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75714


But of course they have to add a cope tidbit about Ukraine somehow still being "superior" with their drone use.

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Youre at your trailer watching Gilligan reruns.

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That’s a damn lie! If Gilligan reruns were on I’d be watching them.

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It was “Putin could win this war whenever he is ready; he is just holding back (for some reason or another).
I’m not saying that was your contention, but it was for A LOT of posters on here, and turns out they were full of shite.

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That would only be true if Ukraine had no NATO funding/weapons/intel and production/deliveries aka "partnerships". What NATO was able to do is turn Ukrainne into a concentration camp that they can draw manpower from to keep the fight going while also calling it a democracy. They fund and arm them and provide propaganda cover for human rights violation and any fraud. It's a sweet gig for Europe and neocons in US as long as Zelensky can continue delivering the manpower, which is why they're now discussing returning the refugees who fled early in the war and opening the draft up to 18-22 year old which is the lowest demographic percentage in Ukriane. Population wise they're down to 22-25 million from 41 Million pre-war, but that's still a big chunk of the population to use for warfare even if large part of that are elderly and women. It will be funded and covered up for in the media until there's nothing left to squeeze.

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That's the problem with consuming info from ISW or Kiev Dependent. They're having a massive manpower shortage, each body exchange with Russia is 40 Russian dead for 1000 dead Ukrainians. Ukrine's "offenseive" netted negative gains for Feb-March somehow. Russia is pounding them with 100s of drones and missiles daily, Zelensky wrote a decree a week ago barring 18-22 year old from leaving the county. He's constantly asking to return the refugees. Their forced mobilization problem is spiraling out of control.

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Are you one of those mouthbreathers who believed Russia only lost 18k and Ukraine lost 800k? Apparently, yes.

The battle lines have barely moved in 3 years. No one has “won” but Ukraine has maintained the vast majority of its territory. Russias goals entering “glorious special military operation” were maximalist. Ie, Kiev and regime change. It has failed miserably.

Sorry, I just saw the rest of your word vomit stream of conscious posts. I’m not sure if it’s possible for you to cope harder, but you can try.

Neither will Russia.....those are 2 shitty countries.....CORRUPTION has no bounds over there!