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Started By
Message
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:19 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:19 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Yes, it is odd. It is odd because the issue is clearly multifactorial,
So we shouldn't discuss the individual factors? Your hand-waving "it all works out in the end" is more substantive than figuring out if consumers are paying higher prices?
2
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:20 am to Flats
quote:No. You don't understand the fallacy presented. The shopkeeper's loss is a setback which subtracts from production, whether that is one window or 10,000.
Break enough windows and you'll certainly have a "productive capacity increase"
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:22 am to Flats
quote:There is no "figuring" to be done. Your question was answered. Now, address the other factors.
Your hand-waving "it all works out in the end" is more substantive than figuring out if consumers are paying higher prices?
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:22 am to Jjdoc
quote:
Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
And causing inflation. Highest level of inflation in 3 years.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:22 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
His argument was that monetary outflow to international partners results in a need for those partners to put their money to work someplace. Often the result is the money being transferred to US debt instruments. The purchase of US debt instruments is (presumably) financed at a lower rate than the growth generated through the imported materials.
This is an important point. A country going into debt is like a business going into debt, good if the money is well spent and bad if it’s poorly spent.
It’s hard to argue we’ve been spending it wisely on Learing Centers and the like. China is another example of pissing away the money on infrastructure no one wanted or uses.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:25 am to ManBearSharkReb
quote:Do you know the difference between a one-off cost increase, and inflation?
And causing inflation.
Because if you don't, you should.
If you do, then you recognize your post is uninformed.
E.g. is a corporate tax increase ever considered inflationary?
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:36 am to PaperTiger
quote:
TSMC is increasing its US footprint. Its spending around $165 billion in Arizone on a facility now.
Foxxconn is putting abnout a billion dollars iand 1500 jobs into the US.
I mean that is 2 examples of companies that sped up their time line to invest in the US because of tariffs.
Isn't this primarily driven by pre-tariff public subsidies from the Biden term?
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:38 am to Flats
We talked about this in Trumps first term. You want to direct the conversation to one aspect to win an internet argument.
The truth is as NT stated. There is way more to it than you are willing to admit.
Thats due to your unwillingness to view it in its entirety.
We, on the other hand, understand the whole picture and have stated that over and over. Would you like to hear it again?
The truth is as NT stated. There is way more to it than you are willing to admit.
Thats due to your unwillingness to view it in its entirety.
We, on the other hand, understand the whole picture and have stated that over and over. Would you like to hear it again?
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:39 am to TenWheelsForJesus
quote:
You can't think of a solution where we bring back high end manufacturing only?
Bring it....back?
We dominate high end manufacturing
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:43 am to ManBearSharkReb
The inflation data had zero to do with tariffs. It has everything to do with Iran.
Core CPI month-over-month: +0.2%, which was relatively tame and slightly below expectations.
Bless your heart man.
Core CPI month-over-month: +0.2%, which was relatively tame and slightly below expectations.
Bless your heart man.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:48 am to Django Unchained
quote:
But free traders crafted a plan to shift revenue collection from international organizations to US Citizens via the income tax
So if the tariffs are indeed working, can we expect the Federal government to stop using us to generate revenue? Seems only fair.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:48 am to Jjdoc
I do construction for a living.
Materials prices have shot up after the tariffs. I guarantee you don’t work in the real world.
Materials prices have shot up after the tariffs. I guarantee you don’t work in the real world.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 9:53 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The shopkeeper's loss is a setback which subtracts from production, whether that is one window or 10,000.
I do understand that. What you apparently don’t understand is that in your example there is also loss which subtracts from production. It’s just in the form of dollars instead of a window.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:02 am to NC_Tigah
quote:You’ve left out the marginal increase in cost of those paying those additional workers. The idea seems to be “any job created is a good thing”. But that’s not the case. For the employer hiring workers at $20/hr is not a win over a labor cost of $5/say.
In simple terms, the reference is to secondary economic benefits associated with previously nonexistent domestic jobs. If a new manufacturing plant is built in the United States and employs 100 workers, the ancillary effect his job provision of 100 to 300 positions outside of that plant. Then there are the associated revenue effects with the 200 to 400 newly employed taxpayers. None of which existed prior to the new manufacturing plant's existence.
Even at a marginally increased consumer cost, there are very obvious benefits.
The employer loses all that opportunity cost for the more expensive COGS unless they can raise prices by an equal amount of the increased cost. *poof*
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:03 am to ManBearSharkReb
I own 2 businesses. Wife owns 1.
You are simply wrong.
Construction Materials Cost Increases by Year
Based on broad BLS/FRED Producer Price Index for Construction Materials
Year | Avg. Construction Materials Index | Increase vs. Prior Year
2006 | 180.2 | +6.3%
2007 | 183.2 | +1.6%
2008 | 196.4 | +7.2%
2009 | 189.2 | -3.7%
2010 | 194.5 | +2.8%
2011 | 201.1 | +3.4%
2012 | 205.8 | +2.3%
2013 | 209.3 | +1.7%
2014 | 214.5 | +2.5%
2015 | 213.5 | -0.4%
2016 | 213.9 | +0.2%
2017 | 221.6 | +3.6%
2018 | 235.8 | +6.4%
2019 | 235.7 | 0.0%
2020 | 239.2 | +1.5%
2021 | 303.4 | +26.9%
2022 | 341.5 | +12.6%
2023 | 331.8 | -2.9%
2024 | 328.5 | -1.0%
2025 | 337.9 | +2.9%
2026 YTD Jan-Apr | 353.8 | +6.6% vs Jan-Apr 2025.... this is due mainly to fuel costs. So again Iran.
Summary:
From 2006 to 2025, construction materials rose from an average index of about 180.2 to 337.9.
That equals roughly a 3.4% compounded annual increase.
The biggest spike happened in 2021 and 2022:
2021: +26.9%
2022: +12.6%
So you are simply wrong.
I mentioned my wife's business that deals with children. If the economy is bad, parents cut services like hers. It not needed. The opposite has happened. She doubled her clients this summer.
That does not happen in years of financial crisis for parents.
You are simply wrong.
Construction Materials Cost Increases by Year
Based on broad BLS/FRED Producer Price Index for Construction Materials
Year | Avg. Construction Materials Index | Increase vs. Prior Year
2006 | 180.2 | +6.3%
2007 | 183.2 | +1.6%
2008 | 196.4 | +7.2%
2009 | 189.2 | -3.7%
2010 | 194.5 | +2.8%
2011 | 201.1 | +3.4%
2012 | 205.8 | +2.3%
2013 | 209.3 | +1.7%
2014 | 214.5 | +2.5%
2015 | 213.5 | -0.4%
2016 | 213.9 | +0.2%
2017 | 221.6 | +3.6%
2018 | 235.8 | +6.4%
2019 | 235.7 | 0.0%
2020 | 239.2 | +1.5%
2021 | 303.4 | +26.9%
2022 | 341.5 | +12.6%
2023 | 331.8 | -2.9%
2024 | 328.5 | -1.0%
2025 | 337.9 | +2.9%
2026 YTD Jan-Apr | 353.8 | +6.6% vs Jan-Apr 2025.... this is due mainly to fuel costs. So again Iran.
Summary:
From 2006 to 2025, construction materials rose from an average index of about 180.2 to 337.9.
That equals roughly a 3.4% compounded annual increase.
The biggest spike happened in 2021 and 2022:
2021: +26.9%
2022: +12.6%
So you are simply wrong.
I mentioned my wife's business that deals with children. If the economy is bad, parents cut services like hers. It not needed. The opposite has happened. She doubled her clients this summer.
That does not happen in years of financial crisis for parents.
This post was edited on 6/10/26 at 10:07 am
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:10 am to trinidadtiger
quote:This is like claiming you can go to a car dealer and tell them what price the car will be. I suggest walking into a BMW dealer and telling them their car will cost $25,000.
You adjust your cost, along with the importer to account for those costs, little is passed on to the consumer, Bessent even showed these to us, and concluded the same.
We've had a thread on this already: LINK Two studies with very similar results:
quote:
We highlight two main results. First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. This result means that a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices.
quote:
Table 1 reports our baseline estimates across all trading partners. The coefficient on log tariffs in the unit value regression (column 3) is -0.039, statistically significant at the 10% level. This implies that foreign exporters absorb less than 4% of the tariff burden; the remaining 96% passes through to US importers.
Any lack of price increase we're seeing is almost certainly due to contraction in demand. (NC_Tigah was right about that!)
This post was edited on 6/10/26 at 10:11 am
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:14 am to PaperTiger
quote:That fab also expanded in 2022 and 2024 before tariffs were even announced.
TSMC is increasing its US footprint. Its spending around $165 billion in Arizone on a facility now.
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:16 am to Taxing Authority
Just a few products that have gotten cheaper over the past 2 years / recently:
Eggs
Used cars & trucks
Leased cars & trucks
Car & truck rentals
Motor vehicle insurance
Dairy products
Cheese
Chicken
Fresh whole chicken
Bananas
Frankfurters / hot dogs
Lunchmeats
Major appliances
Clocks, lamps & decorator items
Televisions
Prescription drugs
Medicinal drugs
Motor oil, coolant & fluids
Eggs
Used cars & trucks
Leased cars & trucks
Car & truck rentals
Motor vehicle insurance
Dairy products
Cheese
Chicken
Fresh whole chicken
Bananas
Frankfurters / hot dogs
Lunchmeats
Major appliances
Clocks, lamps & decorator items
Televisions
Prescription drugs
Medicinal drugs
Motor oil, coolant & fluids
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:17 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
In simple terms that's the broken window fallacy.
quote:
No.
quote:Indeed. Building the plant and overpaying for labor are not positive uses of capital. They are lost opportunity costs. Not gains. And making it worse it hurts cash flow going forward, because even after paying back the CAPEX asset cost, COGS is higher. Where is the win?
The key is opportunity cost.
This post was edited on 6/10/26 at 10:18 am
Posted on 6/10/26 at 10:19 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Yep.
Isn't this primarily driven by pre-tariff public subsidies from the Biden term?
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