re: The tariffs imposed on US from Trump spreadsheet are literally just the trade ratio

“The numbers [for tariffs by country] have been calculated by the Council of Economic Advisers … based on the concept that the trade deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all trade practices, the sum of all cheating,” a White House official said, calling it “the most fair thing in the world.”

Most simplistic thing in the world.... sheesh.... hey MAGA you awake yet?

Quite awake to the reality that the US has been ripped off by most of the world since the end of the Cold War.

Someone posted this exact thing in another thread.


Where did you get this?

Yeah that was a different problem altogether.

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LINK

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“If trade deficits are persistent because of tariff and non-tariff policies and fundamentals, then the tariff rate consistent with offsetting these policies and fundamentals is reciprocal and fair,” it said.

The calculation assumes that America’s trade deficits with its trading partners — which occur when the United States imports more than it exports to those countries — are the result of tariffs and trade barriers that limit U.S. exports to them. The tariffs are intended to reduce imports from that trading pattern to balance out the trade deficit.

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Not to mention Trump in his genius decided to tariff two uninhabited islands hahaha

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The sweeping tariffs Trump announced today stretched around the globe, including the remote Heard and McDonald Islands, which are populated by zero humans but lots of seals and penguins.

Despite having no apparent exports or imports, the sub-Antarctic islands, which are an external territory of Australia, will be subject to a 10% tariff, according to a document the White House provided during Trump’s tariff announcement today.

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I don't know but one country well enough without doing a deep dive but the number on the "chart" for Switzerland was 61% which is absurd. Swizerland has ZERO import tariffs on (almost all) industrial goods, those imported by an individual for individual use have small tariffs similar to what we pay and they have a de minimus also, more in line with our old de minimus than the current one.

Even adding their VAT (which is a red herring since VAT is added to domestic goods as well) it still doesn't make sense. They have a low VAT for European countries at 8% for non-essentials. They one place they do have fairly high tariffs in on Ag imports. Ah that's it we feed the Swiss so now it makes sense until you know US AG imports are less than 1% of US import to Swizerland.

The AHS weighted average import tariff on US goods is right around .5%. How you morph that into 61% is beyond any math I can math.


You have to start with something resembling accurate numbers if you want to sway people with half a brain.

Here is what I suspect will happen with the Swiss. They will give up that 1/2% to abolish the 31% and subsidize their Ag more, just like we subsidize AG. It will be touted as a victory and nothing or import will change.

There are other countries where the numbers may indeed be more legitimate but without the time or inclination to investigate knowing the Swiss numbers are ridiculous leads me to think that most of them are.

I am not against tariffs, but I think they need to be applied surgically. By doing it across the board and worse, doing it to most of the countries in the world at once gives them the opportunity to ban together and call the bluff. Tariffs are a bit like economic warfare, and in warfare, if you plan to invade 100 countries, you don't do it all at once, you take them one by one and try to avoid fomenting a far-ranging alliance. Ask Germany about that.

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It is the Census FT900 trade data, exhibit 4, for year 2024, and the formula is MAX(10%,(imports-exports)/imports) per-country on a customs basis.

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I'm not an econometrician (but am a statistician), is that not a good metric to base things on?

What are others metrics that would be more reliable than that?

Pretty good thread.

I don’t see the issue with the tariffs being imposed though and the posts don’t address that. Just that we have a trade deficit with those countries. And prolonged trade deficits weakens our currency.



Let’s take your basic UK. Trump put a 10% tariff on them and Stamer is going to work with him. Probably lower taxes on our tech. Which is why I assume he went lower on them than the EU.

Stamer will make a deal, Trump will remove tariffs. Everyone wins.

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imagine being OP and calling everyone an idiot unable to understand the graph only to be exposed as idiot unable to understand the graph

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I understand the chart just fine. It's false. The numbers posted aren't the tariffs imposed on the US, they are the trade deficit ratio.