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Message
re: "The Map Has Changed"
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:11 pm to JimEverett
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:11 pm to JimEverett
I feel like the machine was being withheld from Biden to get him to drop out. Now that he’s out the machine will be fully mobilized. Heels up is a terrible candidate but they successfully hid Biden last time and won on an antitrump message and vote harvesting.
It’s truly a toss up.
It’s truly a toss up.
1
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:13 pm to JimEverett
Honest opinion of someone informed enough to be active on this board.
I think the Harris strategy is working. I don't know if it's enough, but I do feel like there is at least a bump.
She can't match Trump's rally crowds, so she has been having these "Zoom" rallies that are breaking record for the largest Zoom - they are grabbing headlines even though I think they are BS.
Black men do not seem to be falling for it, but black men are the least likely demographic to turn out to vote. The black women are energized. Wait until they start pushing Kamala's AKA pedigree (black sorority at Howard).
Kamala will be polished at the convention. She's not very intelligent but she will be fine with all of the practice and professional speechwriters. She'll appear moderate and there will be a convention bump. Her people are doing a good job of pushing the "Trump is afraid to debate" lie so I expect that they will not agree to a debate, which helps her because that is her weak point.
I'm usually not a big VP pick is important guy but it may be on this case. I think Shapiro probably gives her Pennsylvania. I'm not sure any other pick (Kelly, the NC governor, Buttigeg) gives her a state. I have long opined that this election is going to come down to Wisconsin. I still think whoever takes Wisconsin wins the election.
I think the Harris strategy is working. I don't know if it's enough, but I do feel like there is at least a bump.
She can't match Trump's rally crowds, so she has been having these "Zoom" rallies that are breaking record for the largest Zoom - they are grabbing headlines even though I think they are BS.
Black men do not seem to be falling for it, but black men are the least likely demographic to turn out to vote. The black women are energized. Wait until they start pushing Kamala's AKA pedigree (black sorority at Howard).
Kamala will be polished at the convention. She's not very intelligent but she will be fine with all of the practice and professional speechwriters. She'll appear moderate and there will be a convention bump. Her people are doing a good job of pushing the "Trump is afraid to debate" lie so I expect that they will not agree to a debate, which helps her because that is her weak point.
I'm usually not a big VP pick is important guy but it may be on this case. I think Shapiro probably gives her Pennsylvania. I'm not sure any other pick (Kelly, the NC governor, Buttigeg) gives her a state. I have long opined that this election is going to come down to Wisconsin. I still think whoever takes Wisconsin wins the election.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:15 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
And this is why Harris will be jettisoned in the next 60 days.
Might want to shorten than time window. She could be the formal nominee as early as Thursday.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:19 pm to Indefatigable
The Villages in Ocala have more than 171,000 residents ......plus surrounding communities .........200 Golf Carts do not represent a move in politics ..........
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:25 pm to JimEverett
You have to understand that most polls are rigged on purpose. They no longer measure opinions or voting intention. They are being designed to shape those things.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:25 pm to JimEverett
Yes, I have noticed a shift in support for Harris. She is slowly starting to catch up and at this pace, will likely surpass Trump.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:37 pm to GumboPot
I'm hopefully optimistic that Trump will flip PA, GA and MI from 2020. That along will give him the win.
Not so sure about AZ and NV.
WI seems like a toss-up.
But all that above is a completely non-expert opinion, just all gut feeling.
Not so sure about AZ and NV.
WI seems like a toss-up.
But all that above is a completely non-expert opinion, just all gut feeling.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:37 pm to LSUbacchus81
quote:
Hilary also wasn’t ‘black’.
She’s more black than Kumala…..this isn’t a joke. I’m being serious dna wise she’s more black.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:40 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
She could be the formal nominee as early as Thursday.
And the same backroom deals that would've replaced Biden after the pre-DNC Chicago roll call would make it easy to anoint another in her place as the honeymoon effect wears off and the real internal polling indicates she'll get blown out worse than Joe.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:43 pm to VoxDawg
quote:
And the same backroom deals that would've replaced Biden after the pre-DNC Chicago roll call would make it easy to anoint another in her place as the honeymoon effect wears off and the real internal polling indicates she'll get blown out worse than Joe.
Once she is the nominee, backroom deals can't really replace her anymore. Several state laws will come into play on that---the ones people thought prevented Biden from being replaced as the presumptive nominee will actually apply after Thursday. The official nominee can't just be dropped or subbed out.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:44 pm to Indefatigable
k
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:53 pm to TigerAttorney
quote:
Yall member when
I remember being 12. High school can be rough, but you’ll get through it.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:53 pm to anc
quote:With her prosecutor experience, if they turn the mics off like they did last time, she'll run over Trump like a 2" speed bump.
Trump is afraid to debate" lie so I expect that they will not agree to a debate, which helps her because that is her weak point.
Ask Brett Kavanaugh.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:54 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
I feel like the machine was being withheld from Biden to get him to drop out. Now that he’s out the machine will be fully mobilized.
You “feel like”? It was a widely reported event. Democrat donors shut off the spigots.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:56 pm to texridder
quote:
With her prosecutor experience, if they turn the mics off like they did last time, she'll run over Trump like a 2" speed bump.
Imagine really believing this.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 3:56 pm to texridder
quote:
Ask Brett Kavanaugh.
Ask Tulsi Gabbard. She ended Kamala's campaign in 2 minutes.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 4:00 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
and feathered.
She should be “dotted”
Posted on 7/29/24 at 4:09 pm to JimEverett
I'm worried that in future elections, TX, GA, and NC will all be DNC victories.
I guess immigration moved them from right to left.
I guess immigration moved them from right to left.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 4:24 pm to JimEverett
The critical blue wall states all have dem governors.
Posted on 7/29/24 at 4:26 pm to JimEverett
"Anyone think there has been a shift with Kamala - whether it is in people actually changing minds or even just enthusiasm?"
Definitely an increase in enthusiasm amongst liberals--even the true blues could not get excited about Biden. What I will call centrist "Trump skeptics" also seem to feel freed at least to consider a non-Biden candidate, though I doubt many of them will much like what they see upon inspection. Of course, this is just my anecdotal experience living in a mostly blue enclave within a red state. My take on how liberals feel is similar to how Barton Swaim described it in the WSJ. they're like a man who just missed being hit by a bus. He's no better off than he was just a minute before, but he's also not dead.
Definitely an increase in enthusiasm amongst liberals--even the true blues could not get excited about Biden. What I will call centrist "Trump skeptics" also seem to feel freed at least to consider a non-Biden candidate, though I doubt many of them will much like what they see upon inspection. Of course, this is just my anecdotal experience living in a mostly blue enclave within a red state. My take on how liberals feel is similar to how Barton Swaim described it in the WSJ. they're like a man who just missed being hit by a bus. He's no better off than he was just a minute before, but he's also not dead.
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