The LA Times notes that this second assassination attempt won't boost Trump's numbers

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A gunman’s ability to get within shooting distance of former President Trump on Sunday has again raised the specter of violence in the American political landscape, a development that analysts said is all too expected as Trump’s followers vowed it would make them even more determined to reelect him.

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“This latest incident gives his base yet another reason to show up and maybe for people on his side to say, ‘This is what we are fighting against,’ “ Madrid said. “But in terms of the enthusiasm gap, that advantage still goes to Harris and I wouldn’t think that will change.”

Said longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz: "I was pretty sure that Trump's defiant gesture after being fired upon [in July] would propel his reelection. To my surprise, it hasn't even been the most important event of the campaign. This second shooting incident is not likely to have an impact, either. I don't see anything other than a war having a meaningful, measurable impact on a decisive segment of the population."

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Data show extreme right-wing violence is the largest threat, but violence from the extreme left is also a danger, he said.

"There's been a kind of reciprocal radicalization as the far right — these neo-Nazi scumbags — become more prominent," he said.

Trump stokes anger and fear on a daily basis with his political rhetoric, which did not soften after the first attempt on his life, and Clarke said he worries that will only increase now.

"We're pretty much in the thick of it here, and I'm just very concerned for the rhetoric as it ratchets up," he said.

He said "a responsible leader should frequently talk about uniting the country instead of dividing it," but he doesn't expect that from Trump.

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In 2022, nearly a third of respondents said they believed violence was usually or always justified to advance at least one political objective. Republicans and MAGA-supporting Republicans were more likely than others to think that, as were white supremacists, conspiracy theorists and firearms owners.

In 2023, racists, sexists, antisemites, homophobes and transphobes were similarly more likely to believe violence was justified to advance political objectives.

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