Texas poll: Talarico holds a narrow advantage for Senate while Abbott leads for Gov

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Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, but within the margin of error, according to a new poll, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a wider lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the contest for governor, as economic issues and immigration drive voter decision-making.

The new NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group poll shows Talarico at 46% and Paxton at 43%, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Another 8% of potential voters were still up for grabs in the race — just as tens of millions of dollars in advertising from Republican groups began to flood into the state.

Abbott took 48% to Hinojosa’s 41% in the gubernatorial race, a broader edge that’s also technically within the margin of error.

The survey effort also zeroed in on Latinos in Texas, shows how that group of voters has swung back to the left since President Donald Trump won 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2024, according to NBC News exit polling.

Both Talarico and Hinojosa led with Latinos by double digits, with Talarico up 18 points (54%-36%) and Hinojosa up 13 points (52%-39%).

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“To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O’Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote,” Hinojosa said then. “When I get 64% of the Latino vote in 2026, I win.”

Hispanic voters hold enormous electoral power in Texas, making up about a third of the state’s electorate.

The survey included 401 Hispanic likely voters in Texas, who were interviewed live by telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. from Sept. 8-12. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points. The same firm conducted the broader survey of 625 likely voters in Texas Sept. 8-10.

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Hinojosa never had a chance in hell of beating Abbott.

Talarico’s lead over Paxton in these polls is shrinking, likely due to voters more and more starting to find out who he really is and what he has voiced as his opinions in the past.

Via Real Clear Polling, Talarico was showing leads of +6 and +3 in polls taken back on week of September 8th. The two more recent polls they cite, though, 9/12-9/14 and 9/15-9/17 showed him with only +1.

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The one from the above article shows +3, but also, just thinking from the content of the article, may have over sampled Hispanic/Latino voters? I still don’t see Latino males taking time out of their day to wait in line and pull the lever for someone like James Talarico in the numbers he would need to win this thing.