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re: Study Finds Increased Incarceration Has Marginal-to-Zero Impact on Crime

Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:33 am to
Posted by Snipe
Member since Nov 2015
11005 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:33 am to
quote:

Well, reporting of crime has decreased dramatically.



Fify

Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33597 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:33 am to
quote:


Then you haven't even looked.

There's no doubt it affected crime rates
You said "profound effect". That has not been shown to be true. Also, your chart doesn't show causation.
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa
Member since Aug 2012
13635 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:35 am to
All I know is of someone commits a crime and is in prison that person wont be commuting any further crimes while they are in the clink, so society is safer.

Hell, many convicts are probably on government assistance while they are out robbing, stabbing, and stealing. So the cost of imprisoning them is offset by their not receiving any housing, obamaphone and EBT.

That is a win\win.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
261680 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:40 am to
quote:

Also, your chart doesn't show causation.


Im sure it was a truce amongst the gangs that caused the decline...

Basically destroying the gang structure was the primary reason.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33597 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:52 am to
quote:

Im sure it was a truce amongst the gangs that caused the decline...
There were many factors involved. Your reduction to "it was prison" simply is not supported by any of the available research. Yes, it was probably PARTLY prison.

Here are some interesting links on the topic:

LINK

quote:

Reasonable as it might sound, the research turns out to be far less conclusive. A panel from the National Academy of Sciences looked at the existing research for its landmark 2012 report on the American prison system. They concluded that “on balance,” higher incarceration rates had a “modest” effect on the decline. But they also cautioned that a lack of clear evidence means any benefits were “unlikely to have been large.”


LINK

Somewhat Louisiana-centric analysis
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
261680 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:54 am to
quote:

higher incarceration rates had a “modest” effect on the decline.


There you go.

In Texas it had a faitly large impact.

However it was worse for society in the long run
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
57822 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:56 am to
Incarceration has little to do with discouraging criminals from committing the initial crime.

The important thing is keeping them off the streets, making them pay penance, and hopefully not being repeat offenders
Posted by Harry Rex Vonner
American southerner
Member since Nov 2013
35959 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 11:56 am to
bullshite
Posted by Gus007
TN
Member since Jul 2018
12036 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:21 pm to
Speedy trials as guaranteed by the constitution, immediate sentencing, and execution would have an
effect.

That would decrease the workload on judges thereby making the system more efficient.
UT rape victims had to wait four years before the trial.
Posted by mauser
Orange Beach
Member since Nov 2008
21735 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:32 pm to
Prison is worthless unless you're looking at people that need to stay in there for 20 years or more. I'm all for hand and finger lopping for thieves. For dumbass dopers I'm all for giving them what they want for free.
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

would that suddenly change empirical evidence?


The only emperical evidence here is that the death penalty prohibits recidivism 100% of the time.

Everything else - including the cherry picked metrics used for this analysis - is anecdotal.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33597 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

There you go.
There I go? Your original claim was that it had a "profound" impact. That would appear to be false. I said all along that it was part of the solution. You seemed to be saying it was pretty much THE solution.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33597 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

Speedy trials as guaranteed by the constitution, immediate sentencing, and execution would have an
effect.

That would decrease the workload on judges thereby making the system more efficient.
UT rape victims had to wait four years before the trial.
What percentage of cases actually go to trial? I think for federal offenses it's less than 3%.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33597 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

Everything else - including the cherry picked metrics used for this analysis - is anecdotal.
Posted by gthog61
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
71001 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 12:59 pm to
They don’t commit crime while locked.
Posted by germandawg
Member since Sep 2012
14135 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

More proof that our prisons aren't tough enough. Make them SOB's a true deterrent and you'll start seeing results.



So the idea is to take mostly young people with almost no education, often times abused as children, equally often saddled with emotional problems who commit crimes without any idea of what a non criminal life looks like and further brutalize that person and expect them to become upright citizens. Sounds like a sound plan.

The war on drugs has been a catastrophe. Wedve been much better served, and more humane, to have simply executed anyone convicted of any kind of crime that would result in their incarceration. That would satisfy the need for retribution and punishment and would cut down on recividism dramatically.....hard to break the law when you are dead. Tossing young people in prison and subjecting them to brutalizations and then returning them to society is not only proven disastrous but it is cruel.
Posted by Lsuchs
Member since Apr 2013
8073 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

Vera reports that the state with the largest drop in incarceration rates (New Jersey, with a 37 percent decrease between 2000 and 2015) also saw a 30 percent decrease in crime rates during this period.


Maybe the decrease in crime led to the decrease in incarceration?
This post was edited on 8/7/18 at 1:26 pm
Posted by Woodbird
Member since Jun 2017
262 posts
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:05 pm to
Germandawg I'm stalking you from the OB. I'm headed out to New Mexico next month on a public land dove/teal hunt and remembered an old post of yours and have a few questions if you don't mind emailing me at woodbirdtd@gmail.com.
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