So the 200K deaths model is using NYC as the baseline standard for the nation?

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Dr Brix said so and also said this was the "best-case scenario"

I get it that they have to take the worst-case scenario and model based on that so anything less is a win but NY has 6% of the population and 46% of all cases.

Does this information change your perception of the model?

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Using worst case scenario is the most irresponsible thing you could possibly do as an authority on any matter

It tells me that high population density affects the chances of catching this, which means the northeast and large cities will be slammed but most medium and smaller areas will be significantly less at risk.


LA and Chicago not having outbreaks on the order of magnitude of NYC tells me that population density is a huge part of it because both cities have around as many people but have a driving culture and suburbs that NYC really doesn’t have to a degree (even suburbs in NJ and CT are pretty packed).

Do you have a link or did you JUST see him live?

ETE: Is he a her?

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Using worst case scenario is the most irresponsible thing you could possibly do as an authority on any matter

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That and planning in a vacuum - only looking at your particular piece of the puzzle are some of the worst things that can be done in any response AND it is readily being done here...

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LA and Chicago not having outbreaks on the order of magnitude of NYC tells me that population density is a huge part of it because both cities have around as many people but have a driving culture and suburbs that NYC really doesn’t have to a degree (even suburbs in NJ and CT are pretty packed).

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Yea but some of the County's in NY with a high infection rate have the same population density as New Jersey. Suffolk, Orange, Nassau all are about the same.

So do LA, San Fran, Chicago, etc.

LA and San Fran are two of the bigger entry ports for Chinese, who are most likely to have come in contact with the virus.

Places that use public transportation at high rates are going to have a much larger infection and death rate than non-places.

Here is how they stack up for 2019

1. NY 14,000,000
3. LA 7,725,000
6. SF 3,000,000

I think 200k is likely, maybe more. Obviously, pop density plays a huge factor in transmission, but I also think there is a correlation to mortality as well.

For instance, Mississippi, sparsely populated, has around 1100 confirmed cases with only 22 deaths, so far. Mississippi is generally considered one of the worst states for healthcare accessibility and overall healthcare.

I think there are some overlays in play that are yet to be determined.

I also think by March 2021, you will be looking at 200k plus dead in the US. I’d venture to guess, though we’ll never know, that China ends up with well over 1M dead in that span.