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Started By
Message
re: Scientist who predicted 2 million deaths in US and 500K in UK changes tune
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:33 am to MusclesofBrussels
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:33 am to MusclesofBrussels
quote:
when he's missed at such an enormous rate both times.
He didn't "miss", he did exactly what he wanted. Isn't this the same person who did the Ebola models? Didn't he pretty much say he went with the largest numbers possible to get people to take it seriously?
I read that in the last week or so.
0
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:34 am to ApexTiger
quote:
From an economic point of view, its 1000% worse
Bc people are sheep and morons like this guy invoke fear and irrational behavior ensues.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:34 am to Number 9 Fan
It’s almost as if ppl on this board WANT more Americans/ppl to die. Crazy huh
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:35 am to Lsut81
quote:
Bc people are sheep and morons like this guy invoke fear and irrational behavior ensues.
I don't know..
I see your point
But if we had done nothing...this guy might have been right...
The multiplier is what makes this virus a huge threat.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:38 am to Supravol22
quote:
They took measures 2 days ago
If they just started taking measures two days ago then his models are trash.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:48 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
He should be held criminally liable.
shouting claims like he did has a worse global effect that stupid arse at publix coughing on a section of produce.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:08 am to Supravol22
quote:
and I bet NONE of them say a word when he says "Yeah, I was wrong"
The death knell of many a modelers career. I wouldn’t be surprised if the idiots from 2016 GE were let go. Even Nate Silver got some serious blowback from his “predictions”
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:16 am to Number 9 Fan
quote:
He was all wet, but what would the numbers be if we did nothing? 20,000 deaths in the UK is after they took measures, what would it be if they did nothing. The thing is we will Never know
You should read there original report. They were very doom and gloom with measures being taken.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 9:19 am to Jyrdis
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:06 am to Supravol22
He's not changing his tune. He's saying that due to the "pause" (staying at home) the healthcare system should be able to catch up and be prepared when they go off pause which will result in less deaths. Key quote:
quote:
He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:12 am to ApexTiger
Just goes to show that drastic social distancing measures have been effective.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:38 am to The Maj
quote:Regardless of the source... the assumptions in the original model were obviously terrible. Classic case of garbage-in-garbage-out.
No one should have given any credibility to that model, especially given this organizations stance on climate change as well...
The beauty of academia is no one care if your results match reality. As long as your model operates correctly for your given inputs —no one cares about fidelity.
That’s the difference academic modeling and what real world modelers do every day. If our results don’t match reality—we’re toast.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 11:42 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:39 am to VOR
quote:
Just goes to show that drastic social distancing measures have been effective.
nope. 
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:50 am to Supravol22
That's OK. The scientists who predicted in 1990 that we would all be dead from global warming by 2000 had to adjust their predictions, too. Several times.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:52 am to Number 9 Fan
quote:
If they just started taking measures two days ago then his models are trash.
The UK was originally going to try herd immunity but then recently changed their policy to shelter-in-place. This shite should be killing British citizens by their thousands right now if it was as deadly as Dr. Ferguson's models predicted it to be.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 12:23 pm to Supravol22
That is not an honest recap of that article.
quote:
As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 12:26 pm to cwill
quote:
He's not changing his tune. He's saying that due to the "pause" (staying at home) the healthcare system should be able to catch up and be prepared when they go off pause which will result in less deaths. Key quote:
So...you go from 500,000 to 20,000 without a cure? What treatment are they using that stopped deaths... the deaths appear to be at roughly the same rate?
This is called bullshite. He was just making shite up.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 12:29 pm
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