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Say Hello to Full Employment
Posted on 7/9/18 at 8:41 am
Posted on 7/9/18 at 8:41 am
This is from the liberal "The Atlantic" magazine: LINK
quote:
This morning, the Labor Department announced that the national unemployment rate ticked up to 4 percent in June for good reasons, as hundreds of thousands more Americans sought work. For the first time in recorded history, the number of job openings is higher than the number of people looking for a job. That has raised hopes that wage growth might finally begin to pick up, with employers bidding more to attract new workers and offering raises to retain their existing staff.
Full employment — that magical economic state, in which everyone who wants work has it, and at a good wage too — finally seems to be near. In much of Iowa, it already is. Out of every 100 people who want a job, 98 or 99 have one. The rate of wage growth has doubled of late, and businesses are scrambling to find workers. “It does feel like things are a little different in the last year,” Elisabeth Buck, the president of the United Way of Central Iowa, told me. “Businesses are getting a little desperate.”
15
Posted on 7/9/18 at 8:43 am to GumboPot
Posted on 7/9/18 at 8:44 am to GumboPot
quote:
the number of job openings is higher than the number of people looking for a job.
Sounds like a segue for an amnesty/open borders campaign
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:11 am to upgrayedd
The highly ironic thing here is that with several border state incumbent Democrats running for the Senate in state's Trump won by double digits in 2016 experiencing a big economic boom, these Democrats are going to end up crossing the picket line there and voting for his SCOTUS pick.
That's going to-in turn-destabilize their state-level and especially grass-roots support in their primaries and general elections. Having to defend a vote to their constituency that shares their consonant on a solidly social conservative to replace Kennedy on the Highest Court in the Land is going to be incredibly difficult.
Republicans have leveraged the Federalist Society and their long-ago mastery of state-level redistricting process. The long-game conservatives played has converged to form a nexus of opportunity that Trump is leveraging to maximize the impact on our society as a whole.
For those that are worried about the 24-hour news cycle it's barely a blip on the radar. But we are bearing witness to this long game the Republicans played over the course of decades of American politics come to fruition.
Whether you agree or disagree with the Republican Party across the board (and again I'm a No-Party voter who identified with conservativism and limited government that finds me aligned with them very often) or not, you cannot say that as we are poised to see a tilt in the SCOTUS towards the most ideologically aligned court since the Warren Court's liberal lean that their long game has proven breathtakingly effective.
That's going to-in turn-destabilize their state-level and especially grass-roots support in their primaries and general elections. Having to defend a vote to their constituency that shares their consonant on a solidly social conservative to replace Kennedy on the Highest Court in the Land is going to be incredibly difficult.
Republicans have leveraged the Federalist Society and their long-ago mastery of state-level redistricting process. The long-game conservatives played has converged to form a nexus of opportunity that Trump is leveraging to maximize the impact on our society as a whole.
For those that are worried about the 24-hour news cycle it's barely a blip on the radar. But we are bearing witness to this long game the Republicans played over the course of decades of American politics come to fruition.
Whether you agree or disagree with the Republican Party across the board (and again I'm a No-Party voter who identified with conservativism and limited government that finds me aligned with them very often) or not, you cannot say that as we are poised to see a tilt in the SCOTUS towards the most ideologically aligned court since the Warren Court's liberal lean that their long game has proven breathtakingly effective.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:13 am to GFunk
I live in a van down by the river so we're not there yet. I'm holding out for my universal basic income. I will accept nothing less than $100k per year. I may change my name to Javier and duck across the border and come back. Someone will probably give me everything I want, then.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:14 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
HubbaBubba
fricking solid
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:17 am to GumboPot
Im gonna predict how much media coverage this will get:
quote:
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:18 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Image Link
My blood boils every time I hear that arrogant SOB say those jobs aren't coming back.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:20 am to GumboPot
We aren’t there yet IMHO.
The participation rate needs to go up a bit, either through boomers un-retiring or people getting off the dole.
The participation rate needs to go up a bit, either through boomers un-retiring or people getting off the dole.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:28 am to The Pirate King
quote:
Im gonna predict how much media coverage this will get:
many pundits and analysts have been saying we're at or near full employment since 2015, but whatever
go ahead and google "full employment 2015" if you don't believe me
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:31 am to GumboPot
quote:
For the first time in recorded history
also fwiw JOLTS data only goes back to 2000
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:55 am to 90proofprofessional
If we have been at “full employment” since 2015, how has Trump been able to kick the economy into a new gear?
Wouldn’t some of that activity have happened under Obama?
Wouldn’t some of that activity have happened under Obama?
Posted on 7/9/18 at 9:56 am to 90proofprofessional
good news nonetheless.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:02 am to teke184
quote:
If we have been at “full employment” since 2015, how has Trump been able to kick the economy into a new gear?
i don't see anything that'd be called a "new gear" unless you were just cheerleading
but if i did, i'd say a tax cut bill + additional stimulus from a big spending bill
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:03 am to LSUSkip
quote:
good news nonetheless
that it is
although my sense is that we're not quite there yet, and the fed should be erring on the side of allowing us to overshoot
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:05 am to GumboPot
We've been there for a few quarters. The problem is this means we're at the top of the business cycle, and unless something changes, we will begin to go into the trough of the cycle.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:07 am to Jyrdis
quote:
Jyrdis
quote:
We've been there for a few quarters.
i'm wanting to see a couple of sustained quarters of 3.0-3.5% nom wage growth year-over-year first to be sure
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:09 am to starsandstripes
quote:
I live in a van down by the river so we're not there yet. I
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:13 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
i'm wanting to see a couple of sustained quarters of 3.0-3.5% nom wage growth year-over-year first to be sure
And I want to see a committed policy of nominal GDP targeting by the Fed. Though, they may already be doing this and I haven't kept up.
Posted on 7/9/18 at 10:20 am to GumboPot
“What do you wanna do with your life?”
“I want to live in a van down by the river.”
“Well, you’ll have plenty of time for livin’ in a van down by the river when you’re... *beat* livin’ in a van down by the river!”
“I want to live in a van down by the river.”
“Well, you’ll have plenty of time for livin’ in a van down by the river when you’re... *beat* livin’ in a van down by the river!”
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