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re: Rasmussen - 31% of blacks
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:06 pm to RD Dawg
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:06 pm to RD Dawg
quote:
Of that 12% overall, 5% was black male and 7% was black female
So of that 5% total, trump recvd 13% of Black Male vote in 2016. So if he gets ~25% in 2020, that gives him an additional 0.7% popular vote for the country, but would be much larger than that in many swing states, i.e. MI, OH, NC, and FL.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 12:13 pm
3
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:12 pm to TigerCoon
quote:
A lot of black dudes voting for Trump aren't interested in black women.
They still have mommas
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:12 pm to SportTiger1
Looking at 2016 MI. Black men made up 7% of the electorate, and voted 9% with Trump.
If he increases the black male vote to 25%, thats an overall popular vote increase if 1.12% for the state.
thats subtantial
If he increases the black male vote to 25%, thats an overall popular vote increase if 1.12% for the state.
thats subtantial
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:23 pm to da prophet
quote:
Will be historic even if it’s half of that number.
At 1/2 that number there will need to be some serious frickery for Biden to last past election night. The gap will be insurmountable.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:27 pm to da prophet
POLLS ARE FAKE
You fricking hypocrites. Only the ones that say you are winning and are made by shameless Republican supporters are real.
I can't wait for you to lose.
You fricking hypocrites. Only the ones that say you are winning and are made by shameless Republican supporters are real.
I can't wait for you to lose.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:29 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Scruffy
You seem very negative about Trump winning re-election. Why so worried?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:32 pm to lsutigers1992
quote:
POLLS ARE FAKE
You fricking hypocrites. Only the ones that say you are winning and are made by shameless Republican supporters are real.
I can't wait for you to lose.
Melting already. I love it!
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:33 pm to lsutigers1992
quote:
I can't wait for you to lose.
Nah
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:33 pm to da prophet
At 15%, there is no path for victory for Biden. If that coalition gets busted, that's the end.
Reminder, the democrats have a very fractured coalition that shouldn't really be able to co-exist. Blacks, progressives, muslims, union and blue collar workers in rust belt states, a slice of women. Trump was the first to effectively press on that fragile coalition. Could be historic.
Reminder, the democrats have a very fractured coalition that shouldn't really be able to co-exist. Blacks, progressives, muslims, union and blue collar workers in rust belt states, a slice of women. Trump was the first to effectively press on that fragile coalition. Could be historic.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:37 pm to lsutigers1992
quote:
lsutigers1992
Why are you poor?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:43 pm to da prophet
quote:
Will be historic even if it’s half of that number.
That would be great and I'd take it. But let's posit that he pulls 15% of the black vote. How many of those are voting for Trump because of his pandering half trillion dollar (Ice Cube + Jared Kushner) platinum plan? Probably not many at all. The black vote that is breaking towards him either was already there, or moved to Trump due to increased prospects of good jobs/upward mobility. These are black voters who already are head and shoulders above their peers because they understand a life truth, personal accountability... maybe some of them just discovered this truth.
You don't help out blacks by pandering to them and promising free shite. Handouts and excuses lead to exactly that... more excuses asking for handouts. How many black voters swing back to the Democratic party because of the peer pressure after this election from the argument that Trump "lied to us and never gave us no half trillion dollar plan like he promised."? There is no way any Republican held senate should approve this.. but maybe Trump gets the Dems to pass it and a few Reps like Collins to defect. It's just bad policy and terrible for future election prospects. You want to cement any gains you make with blacks by promising things that can be delivered and delivering things that help.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:48 pm to da prophet
quote:
Rasmussen - 31% of blacks plan to vote for Trump
This would do more to give black people a voice than anything Democrats have ever done in the name of black people.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:48 pm to da prophet
Chelsea Handler should remind them that they're black
Posted on 10/29/20 at 12:49 pm to aubie101
quote:
. 31% is shocking and makes me question the poll.
How did it take 30 posts in for this to be brought up??? As much as this board loves Rassmussen polls they sure are forgiving when they come up with outrageous shite like Trump getting 31% of the black vote.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 2:10 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
So of that 5% total, trump recvd 13% of Black Male vote in 2016. So if he gets ~25% in 2020, that gives him an additional 0.7% popular vote for the country, but would be much larger than that in many swing states, i.e. MI, OH, NC, and FL.
Correct.
Hillary received 80% of the black male vote which was around 6,750,000 overall.
If Trump garners 25% of the black male vote and all of that is taken from a hypothetical Biden support of 80% (now 68%) that is a a net gain of 1,620,000 votes (Biden loses 810K, Trump gains 810K) for Trump based off of the 2016 Black Male vote.
Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania & North Carolina would all swing heavily in Trump's favor for 2020 from the current polling. Hell, even Nevada & NH are up for grabs.
Hillary's margin in state's she narrowly won in 2016
Minnesota: 45K
Nevada: 27K
NH: 3K
Virginia: 180K
I only included Virginia because the population is 20% black. If Trump gains 12% there and Biden loses 12% of a guess of 30% of that demographic voting, that lead drops to 60K; closer if the turnout is greater.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 10/29/20 at 2:12 pm to da prophet
I don't think it will be half that number. That would be 15.5%. That would be great, but I'm expecting about 12%.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 2:20 pm to lsutigers1992
quote:
You fricking hypocrites. Only the ones that say you are winning and are made by shameless Republican supporters are real.
I can't wait for you to lose.
You seem angry.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 2:31 pm to therick711
quote:
At 15%, there is no path for victory for Biden. If that coalition gets busted, that's the end.
Reminder, the democrats have a very fractured coalition that shouldn't really be able to co-exist. Blacks, progressives, muslims, union and blue collar workers in rust belt states, a slice of women. Trump was the first to effectively press on that fragile coalition. Could be historic.
It really is mind-bending how they keep that coalition together. If it was visualized it would look like some crazy Rube Goldberg machine.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:25 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:
If it is half of that, Biden gets his arse kicked.
agree
Posted on 10/29/20 at 3:36 pm to da prophet
quote:If that is true, and I don't think it is, Trump wins in a historic landslide.
31% of blacks
Plan to vote for Trump.
It will be over before Adult Swim
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