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re: PredictIt betting thread
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:44 pm to GeneralLee
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:44 pm to GeneralLee
What site is this?
0
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:18 pm to GeneralLee
quote:
Keep in mind the fees, 5% of withdrawals is one fee and 10% of profits is another.
True.
So on a $100 bet on Montana, you would buy 114 shares at .87, and make $14 profit.
$1.40 of the profit would come out, so you would have $112.60. If you chose to wiuhdraw the entire amount, it would cost $5.63 so you would actually net $106.97.
6.97% return in a couple months. Still not bad, but probably not worth the risk of the Dems cheating their asses off.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:40 pm to anc
quote:
True.
So on a $100 bet on Montana, you would buy 114 shares at .87, and make $14 profit.
$1.40 of the profit would come out, so you would have $112.60. If you chose to wiuhdraw the entire amount, it would cost $5.63 so you would actually net $106.97.
6.97% return in a couple months. Still not bad, but probably not worth the risk of the Dems cheating their asses off.
I get 7.77758%.
114 shares at .87 would cost $99.18, not $100. Small difference but meaningful in a market like this with fees.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 2:41 pm to GeneralLee
And they send you a 1099 if you win over $1500 or so
Posted on 9/16/20 at 3:03 pm to GeneralLee
Just realized my local House district (IN-5) is close to a coin flip on there. Free money gents. Republicans will hold here easy. Spartz will win by 10%+.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 3:16 pm to SirWinston
Pinging you on the IN-5 market. Max out that market on Dem No or GOP yes, it's a coin flip on Predictit right now and in actually is a solid red district. This would be like Indiana trading at 50% for Trump, when he will win by 15%+ here.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 3:17 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:22 pm to GeneralLee
It's been juicy lately. Florida can be had for 45 cents...
ME-2 might be my favorite bet out there.
ME-2 might be my favorite bet out there.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:30 pm to bayoubengals88
Georgia is free money
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:34 pm to GeneralLee
Trump is +140 on mybookie to be President. That makes me nervous. I have a feeling Democrat’s will “find” mail in votes to win
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:40 pm to GeneralLee
Thanks I missed your posts first couple of times - will check this out 
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:48 pm to GeneralLee
I'm new to Predictit.
I maxed out $0.31 shares on Biden No.
Looking to make some more bets.
Any idea why Predictit seems very pro-Biden?
I maxed out $0.31 shares on Biden No.
Looking to make some more bets.
Any idea why Predictit seems very pro-Biden?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:27 pm to AndyCBR
All gambling sites have Biden as the favorite.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:31 pm to GeneralLee
Trump wins CO would be a big return
Posted on 10/8/20 at 7:18 pm to GeneralLee
Why is there a fairly large disparity between Dem No and Rep Yes in states like Florida if you’re essentially betting on the same thing?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:24 pm to TakingStock
quote:
Why is there a fairly large disparity between Dem No and Rep Yes in states like Florida if you’re essentially betting on the same thing?
Shameless bump - question for the afternoon crew. For those who use Predictit, why would you take the Republican Yes position if you can squeeze a few extra pennies out of the Democrat No position for states you expect TRUMP to win (i.e. FL, GA, etc.)?
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:29 pm to TakingStock
I think people like to bet on "yes", versus "no" for some reason. You see that it many markets on there where yes trades for a little bit more expensive than no. Just a psychological aspect I think.
Posted on 10/9/20 at 1:29 pm to TakingStock
quote:
Shameless bump - question for the afternoon crew. For those who use Predictit, why would you take the Republican Yes position if you can squeeze a few extra pennies out of the Democrat No position for states you expect TRUMP to win (i.e. FL, GA, etc.)?
A smart person would take the more competitive share price.
Yes Rep and No Dem are essentially the same bet as far as criteria to win. I assume it's the volume of trading on either side that drive the price to where it is. Predictit treats each market separately so betting for/against Rep is separate than for/against Dem.
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