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PredictIt betting thread
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:31 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:31 pm
What bets are you jumping onto right now?
I'm betting Trump to win in Minnesota (buying Dem No at 23), Trump to win in ME-2 (buying Dem No at 41), Collins to win Maine (buying Dem No at 31), James to win Michigan (buying Dem No at 24).
MN seems to be by far the best bet out there right now(as far as pro Trump bets go).
I'm betting Trump to win in Minnesota (buying Dem No at 23), Trump to win in ME-2 (buying Dem No at 41), Collins to win Maine (buying Dem No at 31), James to win Michigan (buying Dem No at 24).
MN seems to be by far the best bet out there right now(as far as pro Trump bets go).
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 12:36 pm
11
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:33 pm to GeneralLee
Max positions: Ohio Iowa Florida Tejas Georgia
Medium positions: Nevada Minnesota Arizona PA
Small positions: NH VA ME GOP takes house
I add a couple hundred every few days and keep sprinkling
Medium positions: Nevada Minnesota Arizona PA
Small positions: NH VA ME GOP takes house
I add a couple hundred every few days and keep sprinkling
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:33 pm to GeneralLee
Montana 87c is free money
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:34 pm to SirWinston
MN and Florida will be within 2-3 points of each other, FL is trading like a toss up and MN close to a solid Dem lock. Crazy.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:34 pm to RidiculousHype
Yah I’m thinking about selling my stocks and just spending $40k maxing every state except the hard blues. I want to run the numbers but basically if you maxed every safe state plus OH IA MO TX GA you’d insulate yourself fairly well for riskier plays in NC FL and the other swing states. Then you could feel comfortable taking aggressive flyers on MN VA NH PA etc
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:36 pm to SirWinston
Funny part is for the emotional/financial hedge, we should all be making pro Biden bets on there! Just can't bring myself to do that though.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:38 pm to SirWinston
There’s also the theory that Trump would be up big in states like AZ MN MI FL PA because of mail ins and then you could just sell at like 80 cents regardless of whether the Dems are able to steal it
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:38 pm to GeneralLee
Nebraska CD2 is currently Dem 65. It’s Omaha but it’s only gone Dem once in 2008. If Trump wins the elections he’s going to win NE2
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:39 pm to The Boat
Yah that district is really a point of pride for liberals - they talk about it incessantly if you rewatch any of the 2016 election night broadcasts. Was awesome when Trump won it and they didn’t even say anything 
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:41 pm to SirWinston
Plus the Republican candidate won in 2018 in the big democrat congressional election wave. Turnout in 2020 will favor Trump much more in 2020 than it would have in 2018. I’m going to put some down on NE2.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:50 pm to The Boat
Good call mate I will tail you and the other Patriot on this water
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:51 pm to The Boat
I think ME 2 is a better bet at ~40% than NE 2 at ~35%. Trump won ME 2 by a much bigger margin (~10 points) in '16 than NE 2 (~2-3 points), and ME 2 is a much more blue collar district while NE 2 is more white collar.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 12:59 pm to RidiculousHype
How does the payout for PredictIt work. If I were to put $100 into Montana on the Republican, what is the payout?
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:03 pm to SirWinston
quote:
Yah I’m thinking about selling my stocks and just spending $40k maxing every state except the hard blues. I want to run the numbers but basically if you maxed every safe state plus OH IA MO TX GA you’d insulate yourself fairly well for riskier plays in NC FL and the other swing states. Then you could feel comfortable taking aggressive flyers on MN VA NH PA etc
$850 max per position is the problem there.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:04 pm to saints5021
quote:
How does the payout for PredictIt work. If I were to put $100 into Montana on the Republican, what is the payout?
You are buying a share of Trump winning Montana for 87 cents. When he wins, you will be paid $1.00.
Its an easy 15% return, but the max you can put in is $850.
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:05 pm to anc
Well you can play the $850 two ways - Republican yes and Democrat no. So it’s really $1700 per state risk.
So for your Montana example you could risk $1700 to win like $225
So for your Montana example you could risk $1700 to win like $225
This post was edited on 9/16/20 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:08 pm to anc
Stumbled upon the crypto FTX exchange and it’s got presidential bets, but not by state, they have trump at $0.43 and pays out $1 if he wins.
Need to use a VPN, they are anti-us residents.
Need to use a VPN, they are anti-us residents.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:10 pm to anc
quote:
Its an easy 15% return, but the max you can put in is $850.
Keep in mind the fees, 5% of withdrawals is one fee and 10% of profits is another.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:11 pm to RidiculousHype
quote:
Montana 87c is free money
If you win it’s 13 cent. Then you get 10%fee on winnings so it’s 11.7. Then you get charged for 5% of withdraw amount you’re only up a little over 5 cents.
Btw, I got a small amount on Oregon.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 1:40 pm to GeneralLee
I've been waiting to jump in but plan to max do like Winston and max Ga, Oh, Tx, Fl, and Iowa. Those all seem safe to me. Will probably place some on Az, NC, Wis, and Mich. Maybe take a flyer on MN. Can also place a bet on whether Trump wins any state he lost in 2016 which I think is a solid bet at .40
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