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GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
9889 posts

PredictIt betting thread
What bets are you jumping onto right now?

I'm betting Trump to win in Minnesota (buying Dem No at 23), Trump to win in ME-2 (buying Dem No at 41), Collins to win Maine (buying Dem No at 31), James to win Michigan (buying Dem No at 24).

MN seems to be by far the best bet out there right now(as far as pro Trump bets go).
This post was edited on 9/16 at 12:36 pm


SirWinston
LSU Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
54153 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Max positions: Ohio Iowa Florida Tejas Georgia

Medium positions: Nevada Minnesota Arizona PA

Small positions: NH VA ME GOP takes house

I add a couple hundred every few days and keep sprinkling
This post was edited on 9/16 at 12:34 pm


RidiculousHype
LSU Fan
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2007
8053 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Montana 87c is free money


GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
9889 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
MN and Florida will be within 2-3 points of each other, FL is trading like a toss up and MN close to a solid Dem lock. Crazy.


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SirWinston
LSU Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
54153 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Yah I’m thinking about selling my stocks and just spending $40k maxing every state except the hard blues. I want to run the numbers but basically if you maxed every safe state plus OH IA MO TX GA you’d insulate yourself fairly well for riskier plays in NC FL and the other swing states. Then you could feel comfortable taking aggressive flyers on MN VA NH PA etc
This post was edited on 9/16 at 12:36 pm


GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
9889 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Funny part is for the emotional/financial hedge, we should all be making pro Biden bets on there! Just can't bring myself to do that though.
This post was edited on 9/16 at 12:37 pm


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SirWinston
LSU Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
54153 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
There’s also the theory that Trump would be up big in states like AZ MN MI FL PA because of mail ins and then you could just sell at like 80 cents regardless of whether the Dems are able to steal it


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The Boat
Mississippi St. Fan
Clearwater Beach, Florida
Member since Oct 2008
117423 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Nebraska CD2 is currently Dem 65. It’s Omaha but it’s only gone Dem once in 2008. If Trump wins the elections he’s going to win NE2


SirWinston
LSU Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
54153 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Yah that district is really a point of pride for liberals - they talk about it incessantly if you rewatch any of the 2016 election night broadcasts. Was awesome when Trump won it and they didn’t even say anything
This post was edited on 9/16 at 12:40 pm


The Boat
Mississippi St. Fan
Clearwater Beach, Florida
Member since Oct 2008
117423 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Plus the Republican candidate won in 2018 in the big democrat congressional election wave. Turnout in 2020 will favor Trump much more in 2020 than it would have in 2018. I’m going to put some down on NE2.


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SirWinston
LSU Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
54153 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Good call mate I will tail you and the other Patriot on this water


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10
GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
9889 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
I think ME 2 is a better bet at ~40% than NE 2 at ~35%. Trump won ME 2 by a much bigger margin (~10 points) in '16 than NE 2 (~2-3 points), and ME 2 is a much more blue collar district while NE 2 is more white collar.


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saints5021
USA Fan
Louisiana
Member since Jul 2010
9684 posts
 Online 

re: PredictIt betting thread
How does the payout for PredictIt work. If I were to put $100 into Montana on the Republican, what is the payout?


anc
Member since Nov 2012
14126 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
quote:

Yah I’m thinking about selling my stocks and just spending $40k maxing every state except the hard blues. I want to run the numbers but basically if you maxed every safe state plus OH IA MO TX GA you’d insulate yourself fairly well for riskier plays in NC FL and the other swing states. Then you could feel comfortable taking aggressive flyers on MN VA NH PA etc



$850 max per position is the problem there.


anc
Member since Nov 2012
14126 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
quote:

How does the payout for PredictIt work. If I were to put $100 into Montana on the Republican, what is the payout?



You are buying a share of Trump winning Montana for 87 cents. When he wins, you will be paid $1.00.

Its an easy 15% return, but the max you can put in is $850.
This post was edited on 9/16 at 1:05 pm


SirWinston
LSU Fan
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
54153 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Well you can play the $850 two ways - Republican yes and Democrat no. So it’s really $1700 per state risk.

So for your Montana example you could risk $1700 to win like $225
This post was edited on 9/16 at 1:07 pm


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eng08
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2013
4480 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
Stumbled upon the crypto FTX exchange and it’s got presidential bets, but not by state, they have trump at $0.43 and pays out $1 if he wins.

Need to use a VPN, they are anti-us residents.


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GeneralLee
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2004
9889 posts

re: PredictIt betting thread
quote:

Its an easy 15% return, but the max you can put in is $850.


Keep in mind the fees, 5% of withdrawals is one fee and 10% of profits is another.


PeteRose
LSU Fan
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
10187 posts
 Online 

re: PredictIt betting thread
quote:

Montana 87c is free money


If you win it’s 13 cent. Then you get 10%fee on winnings so it’s 11.7. Then you get charged for 5% of withdraw amount you’re only up a little over 5 cents.

Btw, I got a small amount on Oregon.


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RC
Army Fan
Member since Apr 2009
822 posts
 Online 

re: PredictIt betting thread
I've been waiting to jump in but plan to max do like Winston and max Ga, Oh, Tx, Fl, and Iowa. Those all seem safe to me. Will probably place some on Az, NC, Wis, and Mich. Maybe take a flyer on MN. Can also place a bet on whether Trump wins any state he lost in 2016 which I think is a solid bet at .40


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