Prediction on election prediction markets

I would take betting markets with a healthy view of skepticism and say that they're probably less reliable than aggregate polling data.

The smaller the election the smaller the amount of money can move "the odds"

I know y'all hate videos but i have fast-forwarded it to the important info about the retarded betting markets

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put $10k on Paxton using Kalshi.

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I put $20 to win $50. You’re either a liar or a degenerate if you bet $10k on anything.

Prediction markets aren’t based on polling, they are based on money and nothing more. A wealthy donor could skew a bet by simply placing a large amount on a certain outcome. Sports gambling is based on what the house thinks will happen, prediction markets are completely different. You are simply telling Kalshi that you believe Paxton or Talarico is going to win and you put x amount of dollars towards it. There is no hedging bets or betting against the money line

Correct, that’s why people going off of Kalshi as some kind of prognosticator are short sighted. It can be accurate but it can also be way off

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I don't know, but they have Letlow winning at 90 percen

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So if betting market is trending this way in Louisiana, why shouldn’t it be true with Talirico in Texas with 70%? Can’t have it both ways saying betting market is accurate in LA but someone is trying to create blue wave narrative in Texas.

Btw, I think the betting market is more accurate than the polls. But it’s a prediction game based on available data.

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Kalshi currently prices James Talarico at roughly 70% to beat Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. That number doesn’t match what I’m hearing from friends across the state, so I dug into the market activity.
Most of the number of bets are actually on Paxton (around 73%). The money pushing Talarico’s odds higher appears concentrated in a smaller number of large positions, many of them placed late at night or in the early morning hours.
In a market of this size, a single six-figure bet can move the price significantly. That makes it relatively cheap for someone to inflate Talarico’s odds and create the impression that the race is already over. The practical effect is to discourage Paxton supporters from turning out.
I find that explanation more plausible than the current headline odds, and I’m comfortable betting accordingly. The only number that ultimately matters is the one on Election Day.
Go vote. Don’t let a prediction-market price decide whether you show up.

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Sports gambling is based on what the house thinks will happen,

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Betting lines move due to action all the time

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I still remember the Iowa poll that stated Iowa was going for Kamala and Trump won by, what, double digits. Alll the CNN's and MSNow's got excited.

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that lady used to be good at polls. Dems knew that. Dems paid her very very well that to come out right before the election and say Harris was winning by 5-6 points, since Iowa is like a bell-weather state. Of course, after she was proven way wrong (repubs won double digits) she is no longer in the business of polling. I'd guess she retired a happy girl by selling out. Most never believed it anyway, but just goes to show the dems will try anything. You know that last few days before the election, it didn't change by 15 points. LOL. They are sick people, and yes, they control a lot of the polls.