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re: Prediction on election prediction markets
Posted on 11/1/26 at 8:24 pm to Paul Allen
Posted on 11/1/26 at 8:24 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
They want cost of living to be affordable and no new wars.
Oh wow… I guess those folks don’t recall the 10% unemployment Obama gave us and the runaway inflation Biden gave us.
As soon as you understand climate change is a religion to the Dem/Marxist freaks, the sooner you will understand unemployment and inflation are necessary to keep us from consuming.
The best way to kill production is to constrain the consumer.
Posted on 11/1/26 at 8:28 pm to CR4090
quote:
Kalshi currently prices James Talarico at roughly 70% to beat Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. That number doesn’t match what I’m hearing from friends across the state, so I dug into the market activity. Most of the number of bets are actually on Paxton (around 73%). The money pushing Talarico’s odds higher appears concentrated in a smaller number of large positions, many of them placed late at night or in the early morning hours. In a market of this size, a single six-figure bet can move the price significantly. That makes it relatively cheap for someone to inflate Talarico’s odds and create the impression that the race is already over. The practical effect is to discourage Paxton supporters from turning out. I find that explanation more plausible than the current headline odds, and I’m comfortable betting accordingly. The only number that ultimately matters is the one on Election Day. Go vote. Don’t let a prediction-market price decide whether you show up.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if campaign funds are being used on prediction markets.
Posted on 11/1/26 at 8:29 pm to CR4090
Nice share CR! I guess this confirms what I was thinking.
It was just unimaginable to me that a candidate this extreme could have any success in Texas.
It was just unimaginable to me that a candidate this extreme could have any success in Texas.
Posted on 11/1/26 at 8:29 pm to tjv305
Republican will not win in Ohio.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 3:00 am to FLTech
Bada bing bada boom! All the sheep and lemmings as he said in video are not making the right bet. Push all your chips in on Mike Rogers. Cash big!
And Paxton too!
And Paxton too!
This post was edited on 11/2/26 at 3:03 am
Posted on 11/2/26 at 4:17 am to Defenseiskey
Remember this?
I have a feeling we are about to see the sequel.
I have a feeling we are about to see the sequel.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 4:21 am to Defenseiskey
Prediction markets are basically just downstream of polls.
If the polls are wrong, the markets are gonna be wrong. If the polls are right, the markets are gonna be right.
The prediction market can slightly vary from the polls but they are never that far apart, because the number one thing driving the market is almost alway the polling.
If the polls are wrong, the markets are gonna be wrong. If the polls are right, the markets are gonna be right.
The prediction market can slightly vary from the polls but they are never that far apart, because the number one thing driving the market is almost alway the polling.
Posted on 11/2/26 at 6:46 am to Django Unchained
Kettle, meet pot
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