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Started By
Message
re: Peter Schiff says we are early in the biggest bond market crash in U.S. history
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:47 am to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:47 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
quote:we are essentially borrowing from China to pay for Ukraine
wut
You’d have to be a fricking moron not to see that this is the case.
ALL - EVEY PENNY - in federal tax paid by citizens of Texas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Georgia Florida South Carolina and Tennessee goes to paying interest on US debt.
0
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:50 am to Padme
quote:
It’s crazy that we are essentially borrowing from China to pay for Ukraine, I mean it’s been crazy for a while, but there is no longer a point of reference, we are way off the path.
Don't fall for that hype. The vast majority of US debt is domestically owned (the federal government borrowing from itself, individual investors holding securities, investment firms holding securities in for pensions and 401ks, etc). China holds about $800B-$900B (second to Japan, which holds just over $1T), all foreign holdings combined are less than domestic holdings.
The far bigger issue is that the federal government has, essentially, been borrowing money just to service its current debt for over a decade now and that amount continues to increase. For example, total revenues for the federal government are expected to be about $4.8T but there's also expected to be just over $1T of debt servicing this year (which, sort of, comes out first). That's like a household having to spend 20% of its net income to pay credit card interest while borrowing ~1.5x-2x as much as it pays in interest and has no plan to ever do anything but increase that sort of spending and borrowing.
There's only one eventual end of that.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:51 am to Bard
Guys like schiff, Burry, and Rickards have all been predicting a cataclysmic financial event for 10 years or longer …… and that’s because the monster US Debt problems have been visible for at least that long.
Predicting the timing of such an event is always more challenging than predicting that the event will occur.
The one thing you cannot say about these contrarian investors is that they are afraid to put their money on the line to back their predictions….
Predicting the timing of such an event is always more challenging than predicting that the event will occur.
The one thing you cannot say about these contrarian investors is that they are afraid to put their money on the line to back their predictions….
This post was edited on 10/3/23 at 11:56 am
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:52 am to stout
iIs comical the way the USD rallies daily on the algo driven formula that higher bond yields = higher demand for UST which means higher demand for USD in order to buy those UST ...... wait til algos discover the higher yields are not due to strong economy but rather to horrendous stagflation driven by runaway govt spending beyond strong tax receipts and that they should have been shorting the USD
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:56 am to stout
quote:
You can't believe anything that comes out of the mainstream media.
Truth
Posted on 10/3/23 at 11:59 am to OU Guy
Study the fall of Roman Empire to grasp how even the strongest military does not save you when the spending goes out of control.
Its really simple math you need to focus on . We have blown thru $1tln in annual interest and now rocketing towards $2 trillion and current interest rates are NOT high by historical standards .
We are completely dependent on foreign countries to fund us .... you need to grasp the significance of this . Saudis & Chinese & Russia have been among the big buyers of UST in past & that of course is rapidly changing at a time we are blowing out debt by multi-trillions annually . Pull up a chart of national debt over last 25yrs ... ITS GONE PARABOLIC. Who in their right effing mind thinks this can go on forever ?
Its really simple math you need to focus on . We have blown thru $1tln in annual interest and now rocketing towards $2 trillion and current interest rates are NOT high by historical standards .
We are completely dependent on foreign countries to fund us .... you need to grasp the significance of this . Saudis & Chinese & Russia have been among the big buyers of UST in past & that of course is rapidly changing at a time we are blowing out debt by multi-trillions annually . Pull up a chart of national debt over last 25yrs ... ITS GONE PARABOLIC. Who in their right effing mind thinks this can go on forever ?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:00 pm to stout
So what’s the play to survive or benefit from all this?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:03 pm to Jack Bauers HnK
quote:
So what’s the play to survive or benefit from all this?
Ammo
Only half joking about that
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:04 pm to Jack Bauers HnK
quote:
So what’s the play to survive or benefit from all this?
Cash, lots of it drawing 5% savings or 5.5% laddered CD's.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:09 pm to Broke
The appeal of bitcoin to me was that it would be 21st century gold. A hedge against inflation, central bank shenanigans, and awful governance.
But nope… price action says it’s just a tech stock.
But nope… price action says it’s just a tech stock.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:10 pm to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
There will be a crash, WWIII will happen, and then what is left? Who knows. People better get ready for a ride rougher than anything they have seen.
The last time was 1929 followed by WW2.
Buckle up boys. It’s our turn and time now.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:11 pm to Tomatocantender
quote:
Cash
Bad plan. Cash and low interest “safe” bonds will get evaporated if this comes to pass.
Real estate and precious metals is where it’s at as a hedge
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:16 pm to OU Guy
quote:
We are completely dependent on foreign countries to fund us .... you need to grasp the significance of this . Saudis & Chinese & Russia have been among the big buyers of UST in past & that of course is rapidly changing at a time we are blowing out debt by multi-trillions annually .
How much of that is in comparison to domestic purchases of Treasuries?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:16 pm to stout
quote:
Peter Schiff
Has been predicting doom and gloom since 2015. Maybe he will finally be right?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:16 pm to holdem Tiger
quote:
Cash and low interest “safe” bonds will get evaporated if this comes to pass.
I hate these "cash is trash" lectures. There is no asset on the planet that gives you the mental/psychological edge moreso than cash gives you. There is no liquid asset on the planet that allows you to deploy your chess pieces (when it's time to strike) like the USD in the future when a buying opportunity/investment/stock arises. The ability to sleep at night knowing you're making 5% plus and the only worry you have is spreading it out to avoid the FDIC limit...nothing better. You've been listening to too many Ray Dalio speeches.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:22 pm to Tomatocantender
We are talking about a hyperinflation situation the likes of which we’ve never seen.
Cash would be worthless except as wallpaper.
Cash would be worthless except as wallpaper.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:29 pm to holdem Tiger
You will own nothing and you will be happy!
Wonder if the WEF would be happy with the above scenario?
quote:
We are talking about a hyperinflation situation the likes of which we’ve never seen.
Cash would be worthless except as wallpaper.
Wonder if the WEF would be happy with the above scenario?
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:33 pm to holdem Tiger
quote:
Cash would be worthless except as wallpaper.
This scenario already played out in '80/'81 when Reagan had to clean up Carter's mess, and anyone sitting on boatloads of cash were able to get unbelievable rates on their money. Nobody was purchasing 18% real-estate deals back then, the ones that had the money were in cash and cash equivalents...then they struck and deployed/diversified back into hard assets. If you don't understand the mental edge that cash brings to the table in these times, then I don't know what to tell you. Obviously you have to be diversified of course, not saying every single penny has to be in cash.
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:36 pm to stout
He sounds bitter AF
Posted on 10/3/23 at 12:40 pm to holdem Tiger
quote:I would rather have a lot of it than none. I'm not all cash but between cash, mutual funds and properties, I don't know what else to do. I've thought about gold but I don't trust someone else holding it and don't know that I want it in my home. I'm looking at more property but none suits my fancy at the moment.
Cash would be worthless except as wallpaper.
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