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On the Topic of Unexpected Deaths for Younger Persons: Actual Mortality Data
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:18 pm
LINK
In 2019, mortality for the ages 15-24 was 69.7 per 100,000.
By Q1 of 2022, it had climbed to 88.3 per 100,000.
For ages 25-34, it was 128.8 in 2019.
By Q1 of 2022, it had climbed to 181.6.
LINK
There's no single cause or answer for this. But this is at least hard data to indicate that younger persons' mortality is drastically up in the US as of Q1 2022 versus pre-Covid.
As the data comes out over the next 6 months and we get data that is truly "post-Covid," if the mortality numbers do not radically drop for ages 15-34 to something closer to the pre-Covid numbers, it's probably time to sound the alarm bells in earnest.
This post was edited on 11/1/22 at 1:35 pm
9
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:24 pm to the808bass
quote:
As the data comes out over the next 6 months and we get data that is truly "post-Covid," if the mortality numbers do not radically drop for ages 15-34 to something closer to the pre-Covid numbers, it's probably time to sound the alarm bells in earnest.
Life insurance companies are already doing this. We will see major life carriers go out of business in the next 5 years. There are no actuarial tables, investments that can be made, or reserve funds that can account for life insurance payouts doubling for the 18-40 year old cohort.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:24 pm to the808bass
Can you take out drug overdoses and see what the numbers are?
Fentanyl ODd aren’t exactly nothing.
Fentanyl ODd aren’t exactly nothing.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:25 pm to the808bass
pureblood in!
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:28 pm to the808bass
Who controls the data?
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:29 pm to BengalOnTheBay
quote:
Life insurance companies are already doing this. We will see major life carriers go out of business in the next 5 years. There are no actuarial tables, investments that can be made, or reserve funds that can account for life insurance payouts doubling for the 18-40 year old cohort.
I just posted in my OT thread about the golfer with the blood clot that life insurance companies have been saying for the past 2 or 3 quarterly earnings that deaths in certain age groups are up and it is not drug or CV related they are saying.
Of course, I am downvoted by the Covidians and Crazy4LSU is there to dimiss it.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:32 pm to Robin Masters
quote:
Can you take out drug overdoses and see what the numbers are? Fentanyl ODd aren’t exactly nothing.
I think there is a horrific story playing out with regard to closet pill users who lost access to oxy and are dying from fentanyl overdoses.
Not saying that accounts for the entire jump but it’s a major issue right now.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:34 pm to BengalOnTheBay
Why would 18-40 year olds buy life insurance anymore? None of us get married because the boomers let all their daughters get fat and become single moms
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:36 pm to stout
quote:
I just posted in my OT thread about the golfer with the blood clot that life insurance companies have been saying for the past 2 or 3 quarterly earnings that deaths in certain age groups are up and it is not drug or CV related they are saying.
Of course, I am downvoted by the Covidians and Crazy4LSU is there to dimiss it.
Lol. The inability of any of you to actually form an argument is amazing. Apparently, you can point to demographic data without any analysis and I guess expect that to carry the argument?
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:36 pm to Robin Masters
quote:
Can you take out drug overdoses and see what the numbers are?
Fentanyl ODd aren’t exactly nothing.
There were 100,000ish fentynal deaths in 2021 total.
There are 55,000,000ish people aged 20-45 in the US.
Fentynal doesn't move the needle much. If every fentynal death was 20-45 thaytis 1/4500.
This post was edited on 11/1/22 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:40 pm to Robin Masters
In raw numbers, the overdose mortality rate in 2019 for age 15-24 was 11.2. So we've seen an increase of roughly 6.5 per 10,000 since 2019. That's 6.5 of the 19 raw increase in mortality in age 15-24, or 36% of the increased mortality.
For the ages 25-34, mortality due to overdose was 40.5 for the year 2019. The 51.6 of Q3 2021 accounts for about 19% of the increased mortality.
LINK
Still a big gap for other variables.
(My math was half-assed in most of this, so you can probably refine those numbers. But I think the overall point that overdose doesn't come close to accounting for the increase in mortality seems clear.)
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:40 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
The inability of any of you to actually form an argument is amazing
Actually, there are some people I just have stopped responding to on some topics because it's pointless. No use in arguing with you again for the millionth time about CV. I know where you stand and nothing is changing your mind. Why waste the time? I would gain more bashing my head against a brick wall over and over again.
LSUPride is another I just ignore now in CV threads.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:44 pm to stout
quote:
I just posted in my OT thread about the golfer with the blood clot that life insurance companies have been saying for the past 2 or 3 quarterly earnings that deaths in certain age groups are up and it is not drug or CV related they are saying.
Of course, I am downvoted by the Covidians and Crazy4LSU is there to dimiss it.
The real tell will come if and when they start adjusting rates based on vaccination status.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:46 pm to BlackAdam
quote:
The real tell will come if and when they start adjusting rates based on vaccination status.
One life insurance company said in June that they are going to raise premiums in counties with lower vaccine rates. It will be interesting to see if they reverse course.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:47 pm to stout
The insurance companies don't care how they get to a profit. If they need to charge unvaccinated people to get to their targeted profit margin, they'll do it.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:49 pm to the808bass
quote:
If they need to charge unvaccinated people to get to their targeted profit margin, they'll do it.
Or quit insuring those that are vaxxed
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:50 pm to stout
quote:
Actually, there are some people I just have stopped responding to on some topics because it's pointless. No use in arguing with you again for the millionth time about CV. I know where you stand and nothing is changing your mind. Why waste the time? I would gain more bashing my head against a brick wall over and over again.
I don't recall interacting with you that much, and the one time I do recall, it was again because you posted something wild without either an argument attached to it or actual evidence. I'm moved by one thing, which is arguments. Bad arguments are bad arguments. It isn't my fault that you lack the rhetorical skill to actually make an argument. I'm more than happy to engage with an argument if you actually have one. Regardless of what you think, pointing to a trend is not an argument by itself. You are free to make a detailed argument if you wish.
This data is great and we should get the entire picture for this time period from the Life Tables that are published in June of each year for the previous few years. June of 2023 or 2024 is when we should get a complete data picture for this time period.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:50 pm to ksayetiger
That's as likely to happen as the big carriers not covering transgender surgeries.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:52 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
June of 2023 or 2024 is when we should get a complete data picture for this time period
Maybe 2053. One thing we can be sure of, there will be no recriminations for anyone who followed the dominant narrative, no matter the data and outcomes.
Posted on 11/1/22 at 12:52 pm to the808bass
quote:
In raw numbers, the overdose mortality rate in 2019 for age 15-24 was 11.2. So we've seen an increase of roughly 6.5 per 10,000 since 2019. That's 6.5 of the 19 raw increase in mortality in age 15-24, or 36% of the increased mortality. For the ages 25-34, mortality due to overdose was 40.5 for the year 2019. The 51.6 of Q3 2021 accounts for about 19% of the increased mortality. LINK Still a big gap for other variables. (My math was half-assed in most of this, so you can probably refine those numbers. But I think the overall point that overdose doesn't come close to accounting for the increase in mortality seems clear.)
Thank you.
Clearly it’s something else then.
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