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re: Ohio special election: tonight's results
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:45 pm to Northwestern tiger
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:45 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
If Balderson don't win by 5+ points against a shitty Dem candidate, the democrats could take 50+ seat in the house come November.
Especially after this huge campaign push from the president, the VP, and the GOP including the likes of Kasich.
this is why this race is so risky for the Rs. Its pretty much win-win-win for the dems. They brought all the wood.
Trump won by 7, trebli won by 35. They should win big.
0
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:45 pm to gobuxgo5
well?? who did you vote for?
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:47 pm to Northwestern tiger
Trump won by 11 in 2016
Romney won by over 20 in 2012
Furthermore, if you take the average swing so far in 2018 special elections and apply it to this race, you’d get a slight democratic victory
It’s the second most educated district in Ohio. That is why it the dem is over performing
Romney won by over 20 in 2012
Furthermore, if you take the average swing so far in 2018 special elections and apply it to this race, you’d get a slight democratic victory
It’s the second most educated district in Ohio. That is why it the dem is over performing
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:48 pm to Northwestern tiger
Every special election since November 2016 has been billed as the one that proves the blue wave or the one that is defined as a referendum against Trump.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:49 pm to GeorgeWest
That is incorrect. The district is suburban with the second highest % of educated voters of any district in Ohio
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:55 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Every special election since November 2016 has been billed as the one that proves the blue wave or the one that is defined as a referendum against Trump.
Stats you can use
Almost every special election (and regular) election portends poorly for Rs. They haven't lost all of them but they are not in great shape for the mid-terms.
Things can change but if what we have seen holds in the fall, Rs are straight up fricked. This is especially true if the Koch brothers don't dump cash into the races for Rs.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 3:57 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
I bet the Dem wins, it is the same playbook they use when they need to win seats. They run a guy out there that is a Moderate Democrat, says all the right things about religion, military, LEOs etc. The sumbitch will win and then vote right along with Nancy Pelosi and Elijah Cummings. Then 6 years later he will lose his arse in a re-election bid.
It's sad how some brain deficient republicans keep falling for this.
This post was edited on 8/7/18 at 4:01 pm
Posted on 8/7/18 at 4:02 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
You are correct, He is LOVED in those places. Gotta have those positive waves baby!
Posted on 8/7/18 at 4:21 pm to golfntiger32
quote:
Then 6 years later he will lose his arse in a re-election bid.
This seat is also up on November 6th, 2018. As is every US House seat.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 4:23 pm to KosmoCramer
It seems like a total waste of resources to have an election now and another one in November
Why not just wait?
Why not just wait?
Posted on 8/7/18 at 4:29 pm to Northwestern tiger
The DEM Candidate has been running against the national party and criticizing Pelosi and Chucky and has been very guarded when given chance to criticize the president. He’s run a very good localized campaign. The early vote numbers have improved for Balderson in the last few days. I am going to predict a slim victory for the GOP.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 4:41 pm to golfntiger32
quote:If this is a special election, will he have to run again in Nov or does he retain for 2 years??
Then 6 years later he will lose his arse in a re-election bid.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 5:23 pm to SoulGlo
quote:
The Dems are doing this in AZ for the Senate seat. They are running an "independent moderate" that is keeping all mention of party affiliation scrubbed from ads. Her campaign signs are purple and yellow like a sunset. She doesn't mention much of anything about policy. Just "forge relationships to get things done" with an "independent record."
She is a socialist Democrat that is fairly photogenic... and DGAF about constituents
This is 100% the game plan in historically red or purple districts for 2018
Posted on 8/7/18 at 5:30 pm to PanhandleTigah
quote:
If this is a special election, will he have to run again in Nov or does he retain for 2 years??
November.
And almost assuredly this seat goes Red in November due to turnout.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 5:34 pm to Northwestern tiger
I'm yuge on Balderson, mates. Get in while the gettin's good! 
legggoooooooooo!!!
legggoooooooooo!!!
This post was edited on 8/7/18 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 8/7/18 at 5:35 pm to SirWinston
The good guys are gonna take this one!
Posted on 8/7/18 at 5:36 pm to Bunyan
I'm going to max on Balderson but holding back about $600 in case the early numbers cause his price to drop. Seems like PredictIt has been getting savvier about that though.
Posted on 8/7/18 at 5:43 pm to SirWinston
I saw a white woman being interviewed by a FOX News
reporter. This woman said she was an 'angry Republican" who was voting for the Democrat because president Trump has been embarrassing us overseas. I kid you not!
reporter. This woman said she was an 'angry Republican" who was voting for the Democrat because president Trump has been embarrassing us overseas. I kid you not!
Posted on 8/7/18 at 6:02 pm to oldtimefootball
i love how the media always finds those "angry Trump voters" but couldn't find any of the tens of thousands of "angry Obama voters" in key battleground states who crossed over for Trump in 2016.This post was edited on 8/7/18 at 6:06 pm
Posted on 8/7/18 at 6:39 pm to GumboPot
There is no blue wave cause the Dem party as a whole is infighting.. Even CNN has said the Dem are a party of fighting on the inside.. Cause you got the Dem that think like Sanders and him backing them.. Then you got the normal crazy dems wanting the party to stay the same etc.. GOP is a party that is backing each other more then the dem atm.. I don't see the Dem winning this seat.
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