re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread

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TO STRIKE OR NOT TO STRIKE: DECISION MAKERS DIVIDED

A heated White House clash erupted as President Trump approved continued talks with Iran despite pressure from senior officials pushing for tougher action. VP JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner argued Iran’s latest proposal showed flexibility for a possible deal, while defense and foreign policy officials pushed for more pressure, sanctions, and possible strikes.

Regional leaders are split: Prime Minister Netanyahu and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed backed a hard line, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar are pushing to avoid renewed fighting.

Trump ultimately chose to give diplomacy another chance while awaiting Iran’s response through Pakistani mediation, reaffirming his commitment to eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat.

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It was the plan all along. I was calling it in here from early in the war. And then after the fact we find out that the Kurds screwed it all up. Therefore the delay is longer than was planned. Probably lost two weeks.

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That was always a pipe dream. The Kurds in Iraq finally got breathing room and don’t want any smoke. Trump recently formalized recognition of Syria’s new leader who’s made it clear the Kurds won’t be recognized by his government. Finally you have Erdogan who’s been vocally that he doesn’t want his Kurds getting any ideas from the others.

If the US planned to use Kurds as a key part of the Iranian regime change it would destabilize the political order in the region. Not to mention the last time the Kurds assisted the US it ended with the need for a UN no fly zone to keep Saddam from gassing them again.

Could be a big nothing burger, but flights were just starting to get normalized again going in and out of Iran.

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the Iranian people are about to revolt and take back their country from the Iran Royal Guard

totally waiting for the United States to give the green light...


It was laughable in the first days of this war and even more of a joke 3 months later.

Every President except 47 said no to attacking Iran for this reason.

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A significant increase in automatic identification system (AIS) spoofing activity is currently occurring in the Persian Gulf, particularly northwest of Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). AIS spoofing involves the transmission of false vessel location, identity, or navigation data, often creating the appearance of ships operating in locations where they are not actually present, such as this grouping of dozens of vessels in the same position. Recent monitoring indicates that spikes in spoofing activity have preceded announcements of military strikes, security incidents, or other regional operations in the past.

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Between 70% and 92% of Iranians oppose the ruling regime, according to extensive polling and leaked government documents.Key polling data reveals the following breakdown of public sentiment:

Overwhelming Dissatisfaction: Leaked internal polls conducted by the Iranian presidency and the Iranian Student Polling Agency (ISPA) revealed that public dissatisfaction with the country's leadership reached 92%.Rejection of the Islamic Republic: Comprehensive surveys by the Netherlands-based GAMAAN Institute show that approximately 70% to 80% of the literate adult population rejects the Islamic Republic.Support for Regime Change:

In GAMAAN’s polling, around 40% of respondents stated that regime change is a necessary precondition for meaningful progress, while 24% favored a structural transition away from the current political system.

Low Regime Support: Only about 11% to 20% of the population supports the Supreme Leader and the foundational principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.Opposition is most heavily concentrated among urban residents, the highly educated, and the younger generation. While there is widespread consensus on wanting the current regime gone, the population remains divided on the exact structure of the government they want to replace

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US Air Force Chief of Staff General Kenneth S. Wilsbach said the MQ-9 Reaper had emerged as the “most valuable player” of operations against Iran, carrying out more strikes than any other US aircraft during Operation Epic Fury despite the loss of around 30 drones to Iranian air defenses and attacks on regional bases, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Wilsbach said “no other platform is even close to the MQ-9” in strike volume during the conflict, highlighting the drone’s ability to conduct long-endurance missions without risking pilots.

The report said Reapers flew persistent missions over Iran targeting missile launchers, airfields and mobile targets, while also helping enforce the US military blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.

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Their situation is the same as Iraq’s, and the Ba’ath party rocked on for 15 years after the gulf war. It wasn’t until the IS invaded that punched holes in the borders that gave people the confidence that they could get families out of country before they committed to becoming partisans to revolt.

Iraq, unlike iran was a secular government. Iran has a social caste system, where your surname establishes your social advancement in life…and it it’s attach to your entire line.

Nobody is wildn the IRGC when their whole lineage will be sent to camps if caught. Until there’s peace keeper that provide freedom of navigation, they will remain subservient.

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The best recipe for a revolution in that scenario is from the low caste that has less prestige/status/position to lose. However, those revolutions aren't going to end up with a new government that is any friendlier to the US.

I think that is why US and Israel were trying to get a former president to lead the coup much like Delcy in Venezuela. They wanted a coup among the elites and middle class that could be negotiated on more "bourgeois" understandings than "proletarian" ones.

I believe the reported 'hair on fire' of Bibi's to be a ruse....an old fashioned Kansas City Shuffle

Guess we'll see soon enough