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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:39 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:39 pm to hawgfaninc
Drawing them out into the open.
0
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:44 pm to hawgfaninc
From where I sit... with the ongoing build up of US forces, it seems as though I am waiting for the other shoe to drop...
While I do think the closing of the Hormuz is putting very significant pressure on the IRGC, I don't see how this is going to be enough to oust the IRGC. Unless there is some substantial internal uprising, to eliminate the IRGC, I am not envisioning where this ends based upon where we are at the moment...
While I do think the closing of the Hormuz is putting very significant pressure on the IRGC, I don't see how this is going to be enough to oust the IRGC. Unless there is some substantial internal uprising, to eliminate the IRGC, I am not envisioning where this ends based upon where we are at the moment...
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:20 pm to klrstix
quote:
From where I sit... with the ongoing build up of US forces, it seems as though I am waiting for the other shoe to drop...
While I do think the closing of the Hormuz is putting very significant pressure on the IRGC, I don't see how this is going to be enough to oust the IRGC. Unless there is some substantial internal uprising, to eliminate the IRGC, I am not envisioning where this ends based upon where we are at the moment...
Yes the other shoe is going to drop.
Correct the Hormuz blockade is putting pressure on the IRGC.
No it isn't going to be enough, you are correct.
quote:
I am not envisioning where this ends
It ends with people dying.
1. Cease fire was NEVER about talks.
a. Iran wanted it because every hour their military was being blown up.
b. We wanted it so that we could bring more resources to the area. Do more recon. Come up with a answer to the Kurds not distributing the small arm like they were suppose to and to deploy more drone defense assets, sow division in the IRGC by taking advantage of their communications being limited. We say we are talking to them when some of the time we were not. Choke off their money so the foot soldiers will stop doing their job without pay.
2. When the cease fire is lifted, we will bomb to isolate. Probably send in a team to take the Uranium after they dug it out (speculation as it might still be sealed below a hundred feet of earth. Bomb the IRGC personnel to a higher degree to get them to desert.
The only real question is:
to what degree the kurds are involved in ground ops.
to what degree Israel is involved in ground ops.
to what degree the USA is involved in ground ops.
to what degree the Saudis are involved in ground ops.
to what degree the UAE is involved in ground ops.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:29 pm to BayouBengal51
Once the strait is fully opened again and things are more or less normal there, what prevents China from buying up massive amounts of non-iranian oil and keeping prices high?
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:39 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
Once the strait is fully opened again and things are more or less normal there, what prevents China from buying up massive amounts of non-iranian oil and keeping prices high?
And this benefits China how? Their rapidly growing economy needs oil, I don't think high petroleum prices benefits an economy largely centered around manufacturing cheap plastic goods.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:48 pm to omegaman66
quote:
The only real question is:
quote:
to what degree the kurds are involved in ground ops.
Probably very little to not at all. The Kurds in Iraq certainly will not be involved as they are pro IRGC. The Kurds in Northern Iran may be of some assistance, but how much no one knows at this time.
quote:
to what degree Israel is involved in ground ops.
Will probably be involved in distribution of weapons and comms to the Iranian resistance via Mossad. May assist in nuclear matter extraction. They probably know the lay of the land better than our own CIA.
quote:
to what degree the USA is involved in ground ops.
IMO limited ground operations, mainly in securing the islands in the SOH and removing nuclear material from Iran. May secure a beachhead of some sort off the SOH but that's it. Iran is a huge country and I don't see us doing a full scale invasion.
quote:
to what degree the Saudis are involved in ground ops.
to what degree the UAE is involved in ground ops.
Zero chance any of the Gulf countries put boots on the ground. Despite their differences with Iran, they won't commit muslim boots to combat other muslims. Just not going to happen IMO. They will sit back and provide ground and airspace for us to launch from, that's it.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:50 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:16 pm to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:20 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:21 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:22 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:24 pm to hawgfaninc
quote:
it has become clear that the Islamic Republic of Iran is a stable, strong, and powerful system.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:25 pm to hawgfaninc
Can Mossad please secretly come and pave our roads? That thing looks better than anything LADOTD has done in recent memory. 
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:27 pm to BayouBengal51
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
BREAKING
• Phone contact between Araghchi and American officials has continued in recent days
• In the past 24 hours, firm messages have been conveyed from Washington: the United States will not change its position, is not rushing into a deal, and will not compromise on the nuclear issue
Three scenarios now being examined in Tehran:
• Maintaining the current situation and waiting for a U.S. move
• Conceding and reaching an agreement
• Deliberate escalation: targeting Gulf states or moves in the Strait of Hormuz
Shift in IRGC approach:
• Until now, they assessed Trump was under pressure to reach a deal and could be leveraged
• His tweets and conduct were interpreted as signs of weakness
• A reassessment is now underway: understanding that Trump is not rushing and does not intend to concede
Bottom line:
Iran is being forced to recalibrate in the face of a far more rigid U.S. position than expected.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 2:37 pm to BayouBengal51
quote:
Zero chance any of the Gulf countries put boots on the ground. Despite their differences with Iran, they won't commit muslim boots to combat other muslims. Just not going to happen IMO
Iran vs Iraq
Iraq vs Kuwait
Libya vs Egypt
Libya vs Chad
There isn't some secret brotherhood that prevents one Muslim nation from invading another.
And it isn't like Iranian backed organizations haven't played havoc in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 3:30 pm to meansonny
quote:
There isn't some secret brotherhood that prevents one Muslim nation from invading another.
Muslims have been killing other Muslims since Mohammed started raping little girls. Different sects especially enjoy killing members of the rival sect.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 3:31 pm to BayouBengal51
quote:
Figured as much. Flaring off natural gas to release pressure.
It could be NGL's and condensate being flared.
Iran near Iraq and the gulf is where 80% of its oil is produced. Kharg Island is the near place supertankers could be loaded without dredging a new channel.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 3:37 pm to BayouBengal51
quote:
Probably very little to not at all. The Kurds in Iraq certainly will not be involved as they are pro IRGC. The Kurds in Northern Iran may be of some assistance, but how much no one knows at this time.
More like separate for eons. One faction in Iraq is more engaged in opium trade from Afghanistan.
quote:
Zero chance any of the Gulf countries put boots on the ground. Despite their differences with Iran, they won't commit muslim boots to combat other muslims. Just not going to happen IMO. They will sit back and provide ground and airspace for us to launch from, that's it.
They were part of Desert Storm coalition against Iraq. They just don't really have to boots to speak of, unless Pakistan or Turkey involved. Saudi fighter pilots are more about a status symbol for the elite in Saudi Arabia.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 4:21 pm to subMOA
I have no idea. I'm not suggesting anything at all. It was a simple question.
The way I see it, it stands to reason that if Iran is no longer able to supply China with oil, or even as much oil, they'll buy it from somewhere else (which hasn't been sanctioned all this time). Just seems to me a country so big suddenly buying oil from the same place as so many other countries will cause the price to stay higher than expected. No?
The way I see it, it stands to reason that if Iran is no longer able to supply China with oil, or even as much oil, they'll buy it from somewhere else (which hasn't been sanctioned all this time). Just seems to me a country so big suddenly buying oil from the same place as so many other countries will cause the price to stay higher than expected. No?
Posted on 4/27/26 at 4:52 pm to deuceiswild
quote:
I have no idea. I'm not suggesting anything at all. It was a simple question.
The way I see it, it stands to reason that if Iran is no longer able to supply China with oil, or even as much oil, they'll buy it from somewhere else (which hasn't been sanctioned all this time). Just seems to me a country so big suddenly buying oil from the same place as so many other countries will cause the price to stay higher than expected. No?
China was getting oil on the cheap from Iran. It is getting it on the cheap from Russia. China was getting oil from Venezuela AFTER it built refineries to handle heavy crude with cokers. Not all oil is equal to refineries. Not all refineries have the same product profit centers besides gasoline and diesel which are not very profitable
Not all oil is the same.
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