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re: Official US/Israel vs Iran war thread
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:19 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:19 am to hawgfaninc
Correct me if I am wrong.
The SOH is actually 20 miles across, but because of the way the shipping lanes are laid out, it's really only 6 miles of usable area. So when they decide to go after 1 ship, it really puts major issues into shipping, the shipping lanes, and it is terrorism at its purest form.
The SOH is actually 20 miles across, but because of the way the shipping lanes are laid out, it's really only 6 miles of usable area. So when they decide to go after 1 ship, it really puts major issues into shipping, the shipping lanes, and it is terrorism at its purest form.
0
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:44 am to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:46 am to BayouBengal51
Current oil storage situation in Iran:
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This confirms ~ 13-day onshore storage estimate: Iran is now using containers and "junk storage" (disused tanks in poor condition) in Ahvaz and Asaluyeh to avoid cutting production. And now rail.
They're delay tactics measured in days, not weeks.
1. Why rail is a dead end: Iran's own senior rail transport expert Morteza Naserian told Mehr News there are only 2 rail corridors to China, never used for petroleum, with severely limited capacity and zero bulk crude infrastructure.
2. The floating storage "fix" is equally thin. Iran pulled NASHA (IMO 9079107), a 30-year-old retired VLCC, out of the breakers. NASHA buys ~48 hours.
3. Jask terminal storage tanks have reportedly already hit maximum capacity as of April 25. Some tankers are now anchored near Kharg acting as improvised overflow. a fleet the Islamic Republic can't replicate at scale.
4. The 2020 precedent that some point out to (85% storage utilization + 120 Mbbl afloat) was managed under very different conditions (I was watching it from the inside): it was sanctions without a naval blockade, and with active export channels still partially open. That escape valve is gone now, and Iran's tankers (including its ghost fleet) are already filled up with 166M barrels.
5. Bottom line: containers, junk tanks, retired VLCCs, and rail fantasies are not a storage strategy. They're the last moves of a system running out of room, exactly on the timeline that was estimated.
Don't forget about the gasoline shortage clock.
This post was edited on 4/27/26 at 11:47 am
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:52 am to BayouBengal51
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:54 am to hawgfaninc
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EXCLUSIVE: Secretary of State Marco Rubio exposes the issues within Iran’s power structure and how it's preventing progress on peace in the Middle East:
“Unfortunately, the hardliners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have the ultimate power in that country.”
"Now that you have a supreme leader whose ability is still untested, whose access is questionable, who has not been seen visibly, publicly—has not spoken. We have not heard his voice."
@TreyYingst
Posted on 4/27/26 at 11:55 am to hawgfaninc
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Iranian FM Araghchi after meeting with Putin:
"We had a very good meeting with Mr. Putin. It lasted perhaps more than an hour and a half. Topics were discussed in detail, both in bilateral relations and in regional issues, as well as in the discussion on the war and American-Zionist aggression. Cooperation between the two countries was also noted and very good ideas were raised."
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:01 pm to hawgfaninc
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If tweet fails to load, click here. No official confirmation yet that I’ve seen
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:02 pm to hawgfaninc
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Amid stalled talks, US preparing fourth aircraft carrier deployment to West Asia in largest buildup since 2003
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The United States is preparing to deploy a fourth aircraft carrier to West Asia, ordering the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, fresh out of maintenance, to ready for deployment, adding to the three carriers already in the region: USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, USS Gerald R. Ford in the Red Sea, and USS George H.W. Bush, likely in the Indian Ocean, though it is still considered deployed to West Asia as it operates under US Central Command and supports missions in the regional theater.
The Eisenhower, powered by two nuclear reactors, can carry more than 60 aircraft, including F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes, and MH-60 Seahawk helicopters. According to Forbes, the USS Theodore Roosevelt could be moved from routine Pacific operations to West Asia to replace one of the current carriers, with Eisenhower potentially taking its place, marking the largest US naval buildup in the region since 2003.
This expanding deployment comes as part of a broader effort to increase military pressure on Iran amid stalled negotiations, with the buildup being used as leverage to force Tehran into accepting Washington’s terms for a deal.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:05 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:07 pm to hawgfaninc
Trumps biggest mistake in this is negotiating with the fricks! They can’t be trusted at all. They are all pathological liars ! Stop giving them time by letting them dictate any conditions .
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:16 pm to mcpotiger
quote:
Trumps biggest mistake in this is negotiating with the fricks! They can’t be trusted at all. They are all pathological liars ! Stop giving them time by letting them dictate any conditions .
they were never going to agree to anything...
however, i think the Trump administration was aware of that headed into the hostilities. their plan, as i see it
Phase 1 - degrade their airforce, navy and missile stocks, as well as degrade their command structure.
Phase 2 - "negotiate" to show the other Middle east states and Europe that we "tried" but iran wont break for their hardline stance
Phase 3 - continue with the blockage, using economic pressure to force the issue
time is NOT on iran's side. eventually they have nowhere to send their oil, wells get shut in, they are not getting foreign currency with export trades, cnat pay with Rials for import trades (rails are becoming worthless) They are not payin gtheir military/goernment services.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:17 pm to mcpotiger
quote:
Trumps biggest mistake in this is negotiating with the fricks
Intel to be gained
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:17 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:18 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:18 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:19 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:28 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:39 pm to hawgfaninc
Drawing them out into the open.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:44 pm to hawgfaninc
From where I sit... with the ongoing build up of US forces, it seems as though I am waiting for the other shoe to drop...
While I do think the closing of the Hormuz is putting very significant pressure on the IRGC, I don't see how this is going to be enough to oust the IRGC. Unless there is some substantial internal uprising, to eliminate the IRGC, I am not envisioning where this ends based upon where we are at the moment...
While I do think the closing of the Hormuz is putting very significant pressure on the IRGC, I don't see how this is going to be enough to oust the IRGC. Unless there is some substantial internal uprising, to eliminate the IRGC, I am not envisioning where this ends based upon where we are at the moment...
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:20 pm to klrstix
quote:
From where I sit... with the ongoing build up of US forces, it seems as though I am waiting for the other shoe to drop...
While I do think the closing of the Hormuz is putting very significant pressure on the IRGC, I don't see how this is going to be enough to oust the IRGC. Unless there is some substantial internal uprising, to eliminate the IRGC, I am not envisioning where this ends based upon where we are at the moment...
Yes the other shoe is going to drop.
Correct the Hormuz blockade is putting pressure on the IRGC.
No it isn't going to be enough, you are correct.
quote:
I am not envisioning where this ends
It ends with people dying.
1. Cease fire was NEVER about talks.
a. Iran wanted it because every hour their military was being blown up.
b. We wanted it so that we could bring more resources to the area. Do more recon. Come up with a answer to the Kurds not distributing the small arm like they were suppose to and to deploy more drone defense assets, sow division in the IRGC by taking advantage of their communications being limited. We say we are talking to them when some of the time we were not. Choke off their money so the foot soldiers will stop doing their job without pay.
2. When the cease fire is lifted, we will bomb to isolate. Probably send in a team to take the Uranium after they dug it out (speculation as it might still be sealed below a hundred feet of earth. Bomb the IRGC personnel to a higher degree to get them to desert.
The only real question is:
to what degree the kurds are involved in ground ops.
to what degree Israel is involved in ground ops.
to what degree the USA is involved in ground ops.
to what degree the Saudis are involved in ground ops.
to what degree the UAE is involved in ground ops.
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