re: NICE! Wisconsin & PENN. early vote totals looking REALLY GOOD FOR MAGA!

Huge Absentee Vote in Key States Favors Democrats So Far

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In Wisconsin, about 146,000 people voted by mail in the 2016 general election. This fall, about 647,000 people have already voted absentee, many in Democratic strongholds.

In Madison, Wis., thousands of people have gone to parks to deliver their ballots during Saturday voting festivals. In Milwaukee, Facebook feeds are inundated with selfies of Democrats inserting ballots into drop boxes. And along the shores of Lake Superior, voters in Wisconsin’s liberal northwest corner still trust the Postal Service to deliver ballots.

Of all the mini-battlegrounds within Wisconsin — perhaps the most pivotal state in November for both President Trump and Joseph R. Biden Jr. — the mother lode of absentee ballots is coming in Dane County, a Democratic stronghold that includes Madison. As of Friday, the number of submitted ballots there amounted to more than 36 percent of the county’s total 2016 election vote, a sign of significant enthusiasm; that figure is 10 percentage points higher than in any other county in the state.

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I thing it's fair to say more Republicans, probably significantly more, plan to vote November 3.

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City officials in Madison, Wis., dispatched 1,000 poll workers to help voters and collect ballots in city parks the last two Saturdays. Credit...Lauren Justice for The New York Times

Take a step back. It's all about the turn out in rural WI. They have to counter the blue in Madison for Trump to win WI.

If those numbers are even close to true then Trump will win Wisconsin by even more than he did in 2016. With that said I have my doubts since these are just projections as Wisconsin doesn't release partisan voter numbers. I'll be cautiously optimistic though.

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If those numbers are even close to true then Trump will win Wisconsin by even more than he did in 2016. With that said I have my doubts since these are just projections as Wisconsin doesn't release partisan voter numbers. I'll be cautiously optimistic though.

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According to Target Smart a democratic voter file vendor trump looks good in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is rough because the Dems requested a shite ton more VBM ballots than anyone could've predicted. PA will come down to in person voting and if trumps ground game can seal the deal.

The most bellweather thing we can all look for is how quickly Florida gets called Nov 3. Vote by mail is already a thing there and it's one of if not the fastest state in counting mail votes. If Florida gets called early then we can expect good news for the night.

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According to Target Smart a democratic voter file vendor trump looks good in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is rough because the Dems requested a shite ton more VBM ballots than anyone could've predicted. PA will come down to in person voting and if trumps ground game can seal the deal.

The most bellweather thing we can all look for is how quickly Florida gets called Nov 3. Vote by mail is already a thing there and it's one of if not the fastest state in counting mail votes. If Florida gets called early then we can expect good news for the night.

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I agree with all of that and while nationally, at least according to states that tell you the partisan makeup of absentee/mail-in voters while Democrats have requested a significantly higher number of ballots, 1.4 million (~33%) more the return rate is only 3% more for Democrats. That Democrats have requested more isn't a surprise as poll after poll has shown that a majority of Democrats plan to vote by mail while Republicans will vote in-person. If the return rate difference stays around 3% that bodes well for Trump, and Republican Senate/Representative candidates as the election day vote will be overwhelmingly pro-Republican with a higher number of people voting in person than by mail.

ETA: left out the word "more" after the first 3% return rate for Democrats. They have a 3% higher return of ballots requested/returned than Republicans.

Projected vote based on what? He just literally tweeted numbers with no explanation

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Projected vote based on what? He just literally tweeted numbers with no explanation

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Target Smart. Is a democratic voter file vendor. NBC is using their data and you can track all of it.

I don't have the link but you can google.

Slaughter of the lamb.

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I agree with all of that and while nationally, at least according to states that tell you the partisan makeup of absentee/mail-in voters while Democrats have requested a significantly higher number of ballots, 1.4 million (~33%) more the return rate is only 3% for Democrats.

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Nowhere close to true and you didnt cite your numbers. In Florida – where Republicans historically have a strong advantage in absentee voting – 497,000 Democrats have returned mail ballots, compared with 270,000 Republicans. In North Carolina, 206,000 Democrats have returned mail ballots, more than triple the 68,000 Republicans who have. Thirty-five percent of North Carolina Democrats who requested mail ballots have returned them, compared with 29% of Republicans.

Even in ultra-conservative South Dakota, where Trump won the 2016 election by 30 percentage points, Democrats have returned nearly as many mail ballots (26,900), as Republicans (29,699). Fifty-seven percent of Democrats who requested mail ballots have returned them, a greater share than the 45% of Republicans.

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I’m in Milwaukee and the Dems are on a full court press. Biden shite everywhere.

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I lived there from 2011 to 2018. Where are you seeing the Biden stuff? If it's Shorewood / Whitefish Bay / Brady (East Side) / Wauwatosa that's normal.

If you're seeing it in Mequon, Waukesha and rural that's not great news.

I didn't think Trump could win WI last cycle until election day. The lines were so small I couldn't believe it compared to 2012 when it was Obama