Charlottetigersfan

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I agree with all of that and while nationally, at least according to states that tell you the partisan makeup of absentee/mail-in voters while Democrats have requested a significantly higher number of ballots, 1.4 million (~33%) more the return rate is only 3% for Democrats. That Democrats have requested more isn't a surprise as poll after poll has shown that a majority of Democrats plan to vote by mail while Republicans will vote in-person. If the return rate difference stays around 3% that bodes well for Trump, and Republican Senate/Representative candidates as the election day vote will be overwhelmingly pro-Republican with a higher number of people voting in person than by mail.

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Exactly and that's what everyone is monitoring or should be monitoring.

IBD was pretty darn accurate in 2016

So was Rasmussen in national polling last week they had trump in the gutter at 44% approval and trailing Biden by 12 nationally. Now they have Trump practically erasing approval trending up and I expect their national poll to tighten.

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Will be interesting to see how James handles the Trump issue - Trump will definitely want to campaign with him, but I'd be surprised if James' team wants to embrace Trump publicly.

They can still both win - see PA (Toomey) and OH last cycle with those senate races and the Trump "problem".

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Trump had a rally in Michigan a month ago and James was there and even got to speak.

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If those numbers are even close to true then Trump will win Wisconsin by even more than he did in 2016. With that said I have my doubts since these are just projections as Wisconsin doesn't release partisan voter numbers. I'll be cautiously optimistic though.

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According to Target Smart a democratic voter file vendor trump looks good in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania is rough because the Dems requested a shite ton more VBM ballots than anyone could've predicted. PA will come down to in person voting and if trumps ground game can seal the deal.

The most bellweather thing we can all look for is how quickly Florida gets called Nov 3. Vote by mail is already a thing there and it's one of if not the fastest state in counting mail votes. If Florida gets called early then we can expect good news for the night.

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He also needs AZ and NC in your scenario. Arizona will be the toughest hold for Trump outside of the upper Rust Belt states

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RCP has Biden falling out in AZ, GA, Tx, OH

All states we know trump has to have but nice to see it's coming down to the Midwest states and trump just needs 1.

According to analysis I've seen in Target Smart it is showing a lowl turnout. On the levels of 2012 and 2016. Nothing like what these polls are showing with 40 million new voters.

Hickenlooper (D -CO)
Bullock (D - MT)
Kelly (D - AZ)

All had debates with their GOP counterparts last week and NOT a single one said no or condemned court packing. They couldn't answer the question.

This is a huge campaign winner for GOP in these red states and these Dems have outed themselves as non moderates.

Let alone Cunningham (D-NC) who is having huge issues with ethics. The Dems running in GA will also have to answer court packing.

The senate should definitely hold for GOP. If they effectively beat down court packing every day.

Trump needs to do the same to Biden. Do NOT let him or Kamala off the hook. Court packing, fracking and opening the economy just beat it over and over again.

His 12 point national poll by russmussen was really concerning last week