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Message
NC finished its absentee/early voting.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:40 am
Dems hold a 256K lead over Pubs in votes by party affiliation. I can't imagine that was the firewall they were hoping for, given the dynamics of this race and the Dems emphasis on mail-in voting vs. Pub emphasis on voting in person. Of the Southern states, I would think NC is most vulnerable to breaking to Biden, and that seems less likely at this point. Anyone see it differently?
9
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:41 am to purpleandgoldhaze
Quite a bit smaller than 2016
Now the question is what kind of reserves does Trump have for Election Day in NC.
Now the question is what kind of reserves does Trump have for Election Day in NC.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:42 am to purpleandgoldhaze
Holding my spot to find a post.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:42 am to purpleandgoldhaze
What’s the Dem v Rep ratio?
If it’s like La. there are considerably more Dems. Is it the same in NC?
If it’s like La. there are considerably more Dems. Is it the same in NC?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:42 am to purpleandgoldhaze
For comparison sake, D's led North Carolina in 2016 by 310,000 and lost by 3+ points.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 9:43 am
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:43 am to purpleandgoldhaze
Not only that but the black share of the vote is at 19.4% in 2016 it was 20%. That's good news for Trump, he is also going to get a larger percentage of that 19% than he did of the 20.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:49 am to The Boat
That is indeed part of the question. The bigger question is how many reserves are left in the Democratic party for election day voting. I think the election day break for Republican party will be historic this year simply because Dems have put so much emphasis on mailing in their ballots.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:50 am to MFn GIMP
quote:
Not only that but the black share of the vote is at 19.4% in 2016 it was 20%. That's good news for Trump, he is also going to get a larger percentage of that 19% than he did of the 20.
This is huge. An increase in back vote upward for Trump (from 8%) only counts if turnout is equal to 2016.
If turnout increases, Trumps gains can be quickly offset. These numbers indicate turnout is on par with 16 if I’m reading correctly.
This post was edited on 11/1/20 at 9:51 am
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:51 am to purpleandgoldhaze
quote:
Dems hold a 256K lead over Pubs in votes by party affiliation.
This will be 2.56 million by the time they find all of the "lost ballots" and ballots stuffed in car trunks, etc.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:54 am to purpleandgoldhaze
How are all the mail-ins considered counted? Won't more come in up to election day or do they think almost all were returned shortly after mailing out?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:58 am to MFn GIMP
Smaller Dem lead- More blacks voting Trump- Dems willing to vote Trump (based on Rally attendance demographics)= solid Trump win in NC
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:59 am to MFn GIMP
It probably will sound judgmental and unfortunately a little racist but the impact that the rappers endorsing Trump will be HUGE with younger blacks who predominately don't get any real news and actually vote the way celebrities tell them to vote.
I would LOVE for that to end and all voters actually do their own research. However, this is a good start in getting a lot of people to actually break the cycle of voting for one party.
I would LOVE for that to end and all voters actually do their own research. However, this is a good start in getting a lot of people to actually break the cycle of voting for one party.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 9:59 am to purpleandgoldhaze
How many North Carolina voters have been registered democrats since before the republicans party made its inroads in the south?
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:36 am to jlovel7
First time posting .. just wanted to throw out a thought about voting in NC. Over the last 15- 20 years NC has seen a large number of folks from the north move here .. mainly to the Triangle and Charlotte area. A great majority of them are democrats and they of course vote that way. My concern is will there be enough hard core Trump supporters from 2016 voting this year to overcome the huge number of notherners moving here the last few years. NC is critical for President Trump. I did my part a couple of weeks ago .. voted straight republican as a registered independent.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 10:59 am to BeYou
quote:
For comparison sake, D's led North Carolina in 2016 by 310,000 and lost by 3+ points.
right, almost 4 points
3.8%
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:03 am to UGA fan n NC
quote:Very true. But think about the democrat city Wilmington. Lara Trump is born & raised in WBeach. Trump gave Wilm the war memorial classification. Trump will win Wilm.
Over the last 15- 20 years NC has seen a large number of folks from the north move here .
I don't think the prog filth in the triangle & Asheville can dictate NC.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:19 am to purpleandgoldhaze
Add this:
Trump has historic in party approval. All those registered Rs are excited to vote trump.
There’s quite a few categories of Biden voters:
-OMB. reliable voters
-pro Biden. Reliable
-Bernie bros. Not reliable
-lifelong registered Dem, who has voted R for multiple cycles. Vote R
-lifelong Dems who have finally walked away. Vote R
-registered Dems who made bank during trump’s booming economy. Unreliable voters for joe
-the democrat who lives in a liberal echo chamber, and tell everyone they know they love Biden, but know in their hearts he’s a crook and want to MAGA, pull the level for trump, and never tell a soul. Hidden trump vote.
Trump has historic in party approval. All those registered Rs are excited to vote trump.
There’s quite a few categories of Biden voters:
-OMB. reliable voters
-pro Biden. Reliable
-Bernie bros. Not reliable
-lifelong registered Dem, who has voted R for multiple cycles. Vote R
-lifelong Dems who have finally walked away. Vote R
-registered Dems who made bank during trump’s booming economy. Unreliable voters for joe
-the democrat who lives in a liberal echo chamber, and tell everyone they know they love Biden, but know in their hearts he’s a crook and want to MAGA, pull the level for trump, and never tell a soul. Hidden trump vote.
Posted on 11/1/20 at 11:24 am to UGA fan n NC
A good number of those Northeastern escapees learned their lesson. Some did not.
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