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Nate Bronze trying to spin the polls
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:26 pm
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:26 pm
Even with the early vote data this clown is trying to spin it.
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3
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:28 pm to John Barron
I love the crazy made-up language shitelibs use. WTF is "incremental reason"? Yesterday, somebody posted something from DU that mentioned "both sidesism."
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:29 pm to Bunk Moreland
He has already been proven wrong about Florida
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Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:29 pm to John Barron
Nate Aluminum Foil is trying to cope with every new tweet but he's really just trying to placate his liberal friends. Deep down, he knows this momentum is real.
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:33 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
I love the crazy made-up language shitelibs use. WTF is "incremental reason"? Yesterday, somebody posted something from DU that mentioned "both sidesism."
The one that drives me the most crazy is adding “adjacent” beside any strong accusation you’re unwilling to outright make, or something that’s just bogus but you’re tying unrelated threads in a way you want to make an argument
Like black men trump supporters are “white adjacent”
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:35 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
WTF is "incremental reason"?
From reading his previous tweets, his assertion is that basically any model output that puts the chance of winning between say, 45% - 55% is essentially a 50/50 race. Since out of a 1,000 simulations you're going to get something close to a coin flip. Therefore, Trump inching up doesn't change it mathematically from "toss up "
If Trump crosses 55% I'm curious what he will say then, because I think that's about where his line on toss up is.
This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:37 pm to John Barron
quote:
Nate says Trump can't win Florida by 8.
Republicans lead the state by over 10 points right now.
I don't think any respected political analyst would expect every single R vote to go to Trump, nor every single D vote to go to Harris.
I don't know if 2 points is a reasonable amount, but there are way too many twitter voices declaring the race over strictly on party demographics in early voting
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:38 pm to TakingStock
quote:
Nate Aluminum Foil is trying to cope with every new tweet but he's really just trying to placate his liberal friends. Deep down, he knows they are toast.
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:38 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
You just shouldn’t take anything he says seriously. He’s better than the MSNBC hosts that can’t hide their vitriol, but he’s just a political operative.
He’s basically outright bragged that he used his influence and displayed his model in a way to force Biden out. He knows the game is rigged and presents it in the most believable fashion possible for the longest time possible until he has to finally fold his hand after all opportunism scenarios have been bled dry.
He’s basically outright bragged that he used his influence and displayed his model in a way to force Biden out. He knows the game is rigged and presents it in the most believable fashion possible for the longest time possible until he has to finally fold his hand after all opportunism scenarios have been bled dry.
This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:44 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
From reading his previous tweets, his assertion is that basically any model output that puts the chance of winning between say, 45% - 55% is essentially a 50/50 race. Since out of a 1,000 simulations you're going to get something close to a coin flip. Therefore, Trump inching up doesn't change it mathematically from "toss up "
So how does he make a living doing this
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:46 pm to OBReb6
quote:
He’s basically outright bragged that he used his influence and displayed his model in a way to force Biden out.
Posted on 10/25/24 at 2:47 pm to OceanMan
quote:
So how does he make a living doing this
Because people click it. I mean, he's mathematically correct on the interpretation. A lot of numbers are meaningless at the middle. But people live and die on them.
If our electorate wasn't so split, I would imagine he wouldn't make a lot of money if the odds of his model were 80/20 and we were having Reagan '84 results.
But since we've had a lot of really close races things like these models generate a ton of engagement.
This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 2:48 pm
Posted on 10/25/24 at 3:08 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
I don't think any respected political analyst would expect every single R vote to go to Trump, nor every single D vote to go to Harris.
I don't know if 2 points is a reasonable amount, but there are way too many twitter voices declaring the race over strictly on party demographics in early voting
Agree. Seems like it is being ignored.
Posted on 10/25/24 at 3:10 pm to John Barron
This guy just said a couple of days ago that Trump had a 90% chance of winning.
Edit: My bad. That was an RCP report
Edit: My bad. That was an RCP report
This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 10/25/24 at 3:13 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
I didn’t really expect you to answer for him, but appreciate you taking the time.
My point was more that he has been making comments at small changes, but now that polls are open and people are much more likely to have made decisions, but now there is a 5% margin of error so who knows.
My point was more that he has been making comments at small changes, but now that polls are open and people are much more likely to have made decisions, but now there is a 5% margin of error so who knows.
Posted on 10/25/24 at 3:38 pm to OceanMan
I think the issue with early voting is you don't know what the denominator is yet. There's no way to calculate what either side needs to catch up. So you have a lot of decisions definitely being made but from an unknown total.
Once polla close you can start making determinations on the outcome since the denominator of total votes is known.
Early voting analysis is fun but open to big enough error is my guess to keep margins at 5%. Which I think makes sense when you saw how much ground Trump made up on election day the last two times.
Once polla close you can start making determinations on the outcome since the denominator of total votes is known.
Early voting analysis is fun but open to big enough error is my guess to keep margins at 5%. Which I think makes sense when you saw how much ground Trump made up on election day the last two times.
This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 3:39 pm
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