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re: Muh Dow is slowly losing all the gains it made since November
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:48 pm to Jorts R Us
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:48 pm to Jorts R Us
Well, okay then. In that case, why did you butt in to begin with?
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:50 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Well, okay then. In that case, why did you butt in to begin with?
Mostly because I think gthog is an angry old man poster. Oops. I did let it out.
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:54 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:Or you could just update the original thread like it's a season long thread.
hey buckeye, you think i should bother with a Q2 GDP thread?
atl fed is calling 4.1% to kick it off. i think WSJ & NY fed are saying 3.2
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:54 pm to Jorts R Us
Long Term growth rates are pretty poor at the moment (<2%) driven heavily by labor shortages & population shifts
This post was edited on 5/1/18 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:56 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Or you could just update the original thread like it's a season long thread.
nah the Q2 projections just started getting released (even though April is already over)
i will update the Q1 thread as the BEA revisions come in. only the first revision (2.3) is out so far
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:57 pm to IrishTiger89
quote:
Long Term growth rates are pretty poor at the moment (<2%) driven heavily by labor productivity and slowing population growth
Posted on 5/1/18 at 6:58 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:Silly
wat
I'm not going to spend a lot of time rehashing old and well known stuff here
These 2 Charts Show the Next Recession Will Blow Out the US Budget - Apr 1, 2016
The Coming Recession of 2017
The Next Recession Is Coming - October 14, 2016
It’s Time to Panic About a Recession - October 14, 2016
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:05 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Silly
I'm not going to spend a lot of time rehashing old and well known stuff here
nah, you're going to make a strong and unsupported claim, pretend it was universally accepted, and pretty much bail on defending it
like by offering up 4 articles you not-so-quickly googled by some pretty obscure writers
none of which actually predicted a recession 2017
let alone demonstrate that a recession was generally expected
(here's the closest that they came: "But it does suggest that 2017 is a reasonably good guess for the year of the next recession.")
This post was edited on 5/1/18 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:06 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:It was well known that GDP was going to decrease for two consecutive quarters in 2017?
I'm not going to spend a lot of time rehashing old and well known stuff here
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:07 pm to weagle99
What happened? You were all about Trump a year or so ago. Nothing bad has happened that would cause any shift from a stalwart like yourself.
Maybe you don't understand the stock market?
Maybe you don't understand the stock market?
Posted on 5/1/18 at 7:12 pm to NC_Tigah
At some point America's day of reckoning with our debt is going to come as well (likely in the middle of the next recession which is going to significantly tie the government's ability to act during it)
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:15 pm to weagle99
Anyone who follows the Market or has any financial background knows what’s happening. The only way you can possibly lose money in the market over a 10 year period is due to a significant geopolitical event such as a REAL war, not an invasion of an inferior country. If that does not happen you will make 8 to 10 percent pet year even if there are corrections. Some years flat, some years down 15% and some years up 40%.
This post was edited on 5/1/18 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 5/1/18 at 8:27 pm to IrishTiger89
Not really, as long as we pay the interest on our debt, keep interest rates low and those suckers overseas keep buying our bonds we are good. If any country that holds our bonds, like China want to go to war, we eliminate their bonds, this destroy their investments and their economies. Our debt to GDP is at or near where it’s been for 40 years and many other countries are much worse than us. Our debt seems high because we are a large economy.
Posted on 5/1/18 at 10:30 pm to gthog61
So, the current funds rate of 2.25% is wrecking our stock market?
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:13 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:Universally accepted? Nah.
you're going to make a strong and unsupported claim, pretend it was universally accepted
Little of this type thing in predictive economics is "universally accepted".
E.g., in August 2008, there likely were financial experts painting a rosy or stable picture for the remainder of 2008.
The fact remains that, prior to the election, a litany of pundits on both CNBC and Bloomberg as well as in print media predicted an oncoming recession in 3rd or 4thQ 2017. Those who didn't, anticipated very slow growth or stagnation instead.
None, at least none that I can recall, predicted anything approaching a 30% 5400pt Y2Y market rise immediately following the election. Similarly none, at least none that I can recall, predicted a Trump Presidency.
Again, the anticipation was for a Hillary Presidency, along with tepid economic growth followed by recession. Sorry that rustles your cockles.
quote:
offering up 4 articles you not-so-quickly googled by some pretty obscure writers
Search term "Recession in 2017"
Timeframe parameters "Nov 1, 2014-Nov 1, 2016"
About 147,000 results (0.22 seconds)
The 4 citations were Forbes, Fortune, Bloomberg, and HuffPo.
They were the first 4 on the page.
I guess I do realize in economics, HuffPo could be considered 'obscure', but I figured you'd be familiar with it as a source.
Posted on 5/2/18 at 5:15 am to matthew25
quote:
wrecking our stock market?
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