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re: Lost in today's news: GDP estimates jumped from 3.9 to 4.5 per Atlanta Fed
Posted on 7/17/18 at 4:18 am to matthew25
Posted on 7/17/18 at 4:18 am to matthew25
Its the trend lines that are getting real impressive
Quarter 1 for 2016 was .6 2017 1.2 2018 2.0
Quarter 2 for 2016 was 2.2 2017 3.1 2018 4.0?
Remember we are talking about a 20 trillion dollar economy, it means we are birthing a Russia every 15 months, thats scary big.
This and the employment data are very good news.
I would think wages will see an increase as well. Lost in the reporting is the fact that 100s of thousands of people QUIT their jobs last month, obviously to get better jobs and I think the wage rates will start to reflect this.
Quarter 1 for 2016 was .6 2017 1.2 2018 2.0
Quarter 2 for 2016 was 2.2 2017 3.1 2018 4.0?
Remember we are talking about a 20 trillion dollar economy, it means we are birthing a Russia every 15 months, thats scary big.
This and the employment data are very good news.
I would think wages will see an increase as well. Lost in the reporting is the fact that 100s of thousands of people QUIT their jobs last month, obviously to get better jobs and I think the wage rates will start to reflect this.
1
Posted on 7/17/18 at 6:12 am to AUin02
quote:
Are we talking at the super basic level? GDP = Consumption + new business investment + government spending + net exports(imports - exports). All adjusted for inflation for "real" GDP.
yeah i was talking about the raw level figure, but really just saying i don't know what precise relation it'll have to the ones used as a basis for the quarterlies. i'm good on the concept itself
before really thinking any about it, my assumption was that the quarterlies were kind of just "snapshots" of progress through the year, and the annual would be a full refiguring that reflected the level reached on the very final day of data collection
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 6:13 am
Posted on 7/17/18 at 6:16 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Saw on CNBC yesterday estimates by 4 major banks along with the Atlanta Fed. Range was 5.2 to 3.8. Atl Fed prediction was midway. Searched yesterday for the transcript, haven't found it.
Lost in today's news: GDP estimates jumped from 3.9 to 4.5 per Atlanta Fed
Posted on 7/17/18 at 8:58 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
before really thinking any about it, my assumption was that the quarterlies were kind of just "snapshots" of progress through the year, and the annual would be a full refiguring that reflected the level reached on the very final day of data collection
Essentially, yeah. The Census Bureau collects monthly data on sales, exports, etc from the relevant firms and this is tallied into the quarterly estimates. One of the reasons for the revisions of quarterly GDP is some places are more timely than others when it comes to reporting. I do know if you fall behind the Bureau will harass the hell out of you about it and I believe certain types of activity are legally obligated to report, such as importers and exporters above a certain $ amount.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:26 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
wages will see an increase as well. Lost in the reporting is the fact that 100s of thousands of people QUIT their jobs last month, obviously to get better jobs and I think the wage rates will start to reflect
Boring but relevant update! This must have been lost in the news as well!
quote:
Real average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls were unchanged from June 2017 to June 2018.
///
For production and nonsupervisory employees, real average hourly earnings decreased 0.2 percent over the 12-month period ending in June 2018.
LINK
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:30 pm to 90proofprofessional
How the hell is that the case when we have companies bitching about labor shortages?
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:31 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
maybe they're accustomed to people begging for jobs and being able to be unsustainably selective and stingy with pay
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:33 pm to 90proofprofessional
You excited, Eeyore?
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:35 pm to roadGator
quote:
You excited
just trying to ensure everyone has all the info needed to have the appropriate level of enthusiasm
wouldn't want everyone's expectations getting carried away due to cheerleaders only posting soothing news
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:36 pm to 90proofprofessional
I'm not excited until you are.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:39 pm to roadGator
i'm looking as hard for reasons to be excited as anyone else, still not seeing it
i guess i'm not quite so eager to be convinced tho
i guess i'm not quite so eager to be convinced tho
This post was edited on 7/18/18 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
That is a hefty jump.
It is indeed.
Inflation seems to be responding to GDP growth so far this year:
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:43 pm to 90proofprofessional
Previous jobs reports this year have all found wage growth though???
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:43 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
How the hell is that the case when we have companies bitching about labor shortages?
anyway Hail, i also wanted to point out that in this environment of negligible real earnings growth, and complaints of labor shortages, we're still seeing those monthly payroll growth numbers around 200K or better
at some point you gotta throw the bullshite flags on these complaints
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:45 pm to matthew25
quote:
Q-1 was a meh 2.2%.
it was 2.3
obamas average over 8 years was 1.5% using his annual rates from each year
trumps annual last year was 2.3
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:46 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Previous jobs reports this year have all found
i posted the image of the current real y/y earnings growth in previous months, it's pretty easy to see a ballpark number
even Jan/Feb, with all those media stories of trump bonuses, look soft AF
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:46 pm to Fat Bastard
quote:
it was 2.3
no it was 2.0
Posted on 7/18/18 at 4:50 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
maybe they're accustomed to people begging for jobs and being able to be unsustainably selective and stingy with pay
wages have been flat to slow growth for almost 20 years now. They don't know how to compete. in my industry, I am seeing wages starting to shoot up - 10-20% in a year for new employees.
Posted on 7/18/18 at 5:05 pm to brian_wilson
with the popularity of these ATL Fed projections this quarter, i'm definitely going to pick back up with a tracking thread for Q3 after the official Q2 numbers come out
Posted on 7/18/18 at 5:15 pm to 90proofprofessional
I appreciate your input and would second that.
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