re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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I think the main difference here than in previous assaults on cities (like Bakhmut) is Russia will not try to take the city directly. Seems like they are going for an encirclement of both cities. I think if this is what they are doing one of two things will happen. The encirclement will be completed and Ukranian troops will be bombed or starved out, or Ukraine troops will fall back to avoid encirclement.

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Truth. Russia has changed it's tactics. Ukraine doesn't have enough drones or men to stop them.

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Seems like they are going for an encirclement of both cities.

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And if this happens as the muddy season starts then it's just a matter of sit and wait.

Make it happen.

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A battery of SM-6 missiles on the Typhon platform is composed of four containerized launchers, similar to HIMARS containerized systems. Even one battery deployed to Ukraine with an undisclosed number of Tomahawk and other long-range missiles could serve as an effective deterrent against future Russian missile launches. Rules of engagement could specify that after a certain date, for every cruise or ballistic missile fired into Ukraine, one precision strike would be conducted against targets in Russia or occupied territories. The accuracy, lethality, and range of these systems would bring numerous Russian military targets within reach—including the very airfields, command centers, and production facilities that enable continued attacks on Ukrainian civilians—ensuring immediate consequences for continued aggression.

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Time will tell on that. The main concern is if these two cities fall it will be the last two major cities in that part of the Donetsk region. Everything past that is basically open countryside. This could result in Russia finally being able to turn this into a war of movement instead of the stagnant trench war it has been.

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This invites a good question, does Russia have the armor to break out?

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No matter what happens in my opinion Russia has already lost this war in a way. Even if they take all of Ukraine and claim victory they would have lost way more than they gained. The main thing being the prestige of the Russian military. Russia was the big bad wolf at Europe's door before the Ukraine war. They held more power because of the fear of their military. The Ukraine war has shown that Russia's military, at least conventionally, was never a real threat to Europe, and the loss of that is way more than Ukraine is worth.

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I’ve been saying it appears to me that this war will have no winners.

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Potentially yes. Is it modern armor, absolutely not. They still can reactivate a lot of cold war era tanks they have in service, but their more modern tanks (T-72, T-90) they are very limited on. What you are likely to see is something similar to how they have used infantry so far. Older less effective tanks sent in to cause a break out followed up by the limited more modern tanks to exploit and expand it. Of course there is a lot of other aspects to consider to see if this is possible: countering Ukrainian drones, providing tanks with the support they need, and even being able to establish some type of air cover over the area. Russia hasn't been successful at any of those things so far.

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On this topic, here's a short description of some important changes recently made to a Ukrainian infantry unit's command structure and the results. If it's too long, just skip to the bottom four points under 'Conclusions' -

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[...] about the results of the formation of the corps based on the Third Assault Brigade

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"On the first results of the combat work of the 3rd Army Corps. -

I have been writing about the need to create army corps for three years, and I am monitoring how their creation affects the situation at the front, since the main reason for our losses is not the enemy's skill, but systemic problems in the organization and management of troops.

Therefore, it is important to look at the changes that have occurred in the strip of the 3rd Army Corps, commanded by Colonel Andriy Biletsky, since the corps was one of the first to be deployed and took responsibility for the strip [of front line] on June 4 in an extremely critical situation.

The [front line] of the corps, if you look at open sources, is approximately 120 km at the Oskol River. In this direction, our troops are attacked by the 20th and 25th combined arms armies of the Russian Armed Forces, reinforced by separate units of the 1st Tank Army. The 1st Tank and 20th armies are part of the Moscow Military District, and have the best support and replenishment.

From January 1 to June 4, 2025, in the [front line] of our two infantry brigades, where according to the Deepstate map the enemy managed to achieve the greatest advance, the Russian occupiers captured 198 square kilometers.

From June 4, the entire [front line] of the corps front, including these two brigades, was transferred to the command of Biletsky. For a month and a half in June-July, the enemy managed to capture 16 square kilometers, but as a result of counterattacks, the 3rd Corps liberated 8 square kilometers.

At the moment, the situation remains difficult, several of our positions are surrounded, but all attempts by the three Russian armies to break through the front are being repulsed.

And now the most important thing is our losses. I have detailed information, the statistics on irretrievable losses are as follows - the average monthly losses have decreased compared to the "pre-corps" time by about 2 times. This is relative to the average monthly losses from January 1 to June 4.

And this despite the fact that in June the intensity of hostilities increased. Maybe the 3rd Corps received significant reinforcements? No, the reinforcements in the brigades are inferior to the losses.

Maybe the 3rd Corps was given money to purchase drones, or mass deliveries began? No, the 3rd Corps is fighting 90% with drones purchased with the funds of patrons and donations of the people.

Maybe they are giving too many shells? No, compared to the Donetsk direction, they are giving less.

So what changed?

1. The 3rd Assault Brigade, which has become the core of the corps, is doing the incredible - it has stretched the front for 60 km.This is an absolute record of the war. One brigade and three attached battalions hold 5% of the entire front of active hostilities, and 50% of the front of the entire corps. And at the same time, corps management is deployed on the personnel of the 3rd Assault Brigade and parts of the corps subordination.

2. The corps command changed the tactics of defensive actions in the entire [front line]. Encounter battles and continuous counterattacks have been stopped. Chaos has disappeared on the front line, units are being brought into battle in an orderly manner. Interaction and organization of reconnaissance and fire damage are being systematically improved.

3. Biletsky has broad powers to promote command personnel under his responsibility, such trust from the higher command allows for the rapid scaling of successful models of organization and management. Therefore, lies in reports on the situation between commanders at all levels in the corps have disappeared, and interaction has improved. All positions that are surrounded are in contact, including with the corps, people are being helped and tried to save.

4. Each brigade began to receive a very small, but planned replenishment of people and ammunition, which previously could not be for months. Now the brigade commanders can at least count on and plan for something. The brigades stopped tearing apart small groups to plug breakthroughs in neighbors.

Conclusions:

1. Andriy Biletsky proved that a competent commander of a combat-ready brigade, if he receives the authority to independently organize work and at least minimal trust and support from the leadership, can significantly improve the results of combat operations on a large strip of the front within 2 months.

2. It suddenly turned out that if the corps command competently organizes defense, controls the front line, creates a system for the operation of UAVs, artillery and reconnaissance of all types, then there is no need to plug holes in the front with masses of troops and grind battalion after battalion in battles for burnt plantings. And they simply methodically grind Russian assault groups, with losses 7-10 times less than the enemy.

3. The work of the 3rd Corps is facilitated by the fact that all the brigades in its composition work in one lane. Unfortunately, we have corps that are broken up into separate brigades in different directions, which are assigned to different commands, which does not allow the corps to play a stabilizing role and improve the situation.

4. The reason for the continuation of the Russian offensive is primarily the problems of command and organization of our troops. Deployment and reinforcement of corps, elimination of tactical groups, trust in corps commanders, independent responsibility in personnel decisions on a corps scale, planned monthly reinforcement with people, drones and ammunition, will allow to improve the situation in any direction of the front in a short time, reduce our losses and increase the losses of the enemy."

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Soon is the big outlier here. When is soon? If they hope to have any chance for a successful offensive it will need to be before the ground turns to mud. If not then they will launch it after Russia has time to fortify recently captured areas and will only be slightly successful at best. As far as the armored vehicles are concerned its how they will be used. Ukraine has been terrible at using combined arms and have consistently left tanks and other armored vehicles on an island themselves with no support. Idc how good your armor is it won't survive long without support. If they change the tactics they use when it comes to that and launch some kind of offensive before the ground turns to mush it is plausible it could at least be somewhat successful.

Very

There are quite a few articles on line outlining Putin’s goals. This is a good one, but there are plenty of others. LINK