re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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What’s the current status of the front lines? Pretty much static now?

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Yes, some fighting around Kostyantynivka, but the Ukrainian mid-distance drone campaign has deteriorated Russian logistics to the point where serious offensive action is very problematic.

Nothing more is really expected until after the Russian general mobilization, which is expected next month at the earliest. Probably September, with actual troops showing up in the lines three or four weeks later.

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What’s the current status of the front lines? Pretty much static

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Russian sources are saying one thing and the ISW snother.

Nothing major is happening and depending on who you are listening to, Russia is gradually gaining land, or Ukraine is holding its own.

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That’s the mobilization they do every year, even before Ukraine correct?

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No, the general mobilization is a major conscription reserved only for war or national emergency. With some exceptions, all males younger than 45 (non-commissioned) or 55 (officers) are eligible. It is designed to provide millions of recruits and most released reservists to the Russian armed forces on an immediate basis.

In contrast, the peacetime non-general mobilization had two drafts per year, a Spring and a Fall call-up. Eligibility started at age 18 and ended at 27 and they generally served one year. The number of men eligible each year was approximately 1.2 million from which around 127,000 conscripts were taken in the fall draft and 134,000 in the spring. These numbers stayed consistent year after year.

Of course, this all changed after 2022. The two drafts were heavily supplemented with contract soldiers, prisoners and former reservists. Those drafts and supplemental additions are now casualties, the war is stalemated at best and lost at worst (it's lost) and the only card Moscow realistically has left is the general mobilization.

However, this isn't 1941. General mobilization now is very politically charged as the vast majority of Russian conscripts are non-Russians, i.e., from the Trans-Urals and Southern Regions. The actual Russians (from the urban Western Oblasts of Moscow and St. Petersburg) have always been protected from the worst aspects of the military.

In post-1945 Russia, the civilian - government agreement has always been 'you take care of us and we'll look the other way at your stealing'. But all that changes with a general mobilization. A general mobilization in 2026 breaks this agreement and will certainly lead to social unrest. (Ok, as much as Russians can be capable of, which admittedly isn't much...). But what unrest there is would come at a time when there isn't enough security service members to contain it. Insufficient Internal Affairs thugs means the unrest grows.

Putin must declare the general mobilization but it's going to have to land on the young urban Russians of Moscow and St. Petersburg. No one else is realistically left. This will of course get huge push back from the middle and upper classes. The ones that count.

But unrest or not, it's coming. Probably after the Russian 'elections' in September. However it could be declared at any time. The effectiveness of a million plus more Russian troops is another subject entirely though. Especially in that the Russian problems that got Putin to this present situation are unchanged at best and in reality far worse.

Loomer Unleashed -

Ok, now the Russians should be really worried.

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And these are pre-Turkey Shoot numbers. The Don exports will now be close to zero.

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Russian grain exports plummet to a 10-year low. Ukraine's strikes and restrictions on shipping through the Kerch Strait have effectively paralyzed grain exports from the Sea of Azov.

In July, Russia is only exporting 1.5 million tons of wheat – the lowest figure since 2017, according to Russian media.

Due to the blockade, exports of grain via the Don River have completely stopped, which previously accounted for over a quarter of all Russian grain exports.

Warehouses are overflowing, new grain is not being accepted, and existing export contracts are being cancelled. Russian farmers themselves acknowledge the situation briefly: "There's no one to sell to."

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There's no such thing as depoliticization in the FSB.

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Per a friend who is semi retired as an EVP of an international grain trading company, contracts mean nothing these days. He has semi retired to only handle arbitration cases for cancelled contracts. Lack of Russan wheat may make room for the US to gain some market share back.

Ukrainians that remember their recent history are having some fun with Drapatyi's candidacy:

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“The flying BMP” that made Drapatyi a legend

For many Ukrainians Mykhailo Drapatyi’s name first rang out in spring 2014 — on one of the most dramatic days at the start of Russian aggression in Donbas.

On May 9 Mariupol effectively fell under the control of pro-Russian militants. Armed clashes raged in the city, buildings burned, and hostages were held in the captured city police department. Units of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade under the command of then-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi entered the city to conduct an operation.

It was then that an episode occurred which later went down in the history of the war. On the road to the Ukrainian forces the militants had built a barricade out of trucks, metal structures and car tires. But the BMP didn’t stop. The vehicle literally flew over the obstacle at speed and continued forward.

The footage instantly spread across the internet, made news broadcasts around the world, and became one of the first symbols of resistance to Russian aggression.

Interestingly, the legendary BMP was driven not by Drapatyi himself but by conscript mechanic-driver Dmytro Vorona. Still, in Ukrainians’ memory this breakthrough forever remained the “Drapatyi’s BMP,” because the operation was commanded by the battalion commander at the time.

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The story.