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Posted on 7/14/26 at 10:28 pm to CitizenK
This is a really good article covering the evolution of raising forces by the Russians throughout the war.
https://warontherocks.com/a-return-to-mass-russian-force-expansion-in-the-war-with-ukraine/
https://warontherocks.com/a-return-to-mass-russian-force-expansion-in-the-war-with-ukraine/
quote:
Joseph Stalin famously said that quantity has a quality of its own. Yet the course of the Russo-Ukrainian War shows both the benefits and the eventual limitations of that approach. As the quantitative advantage grew on the Russian side, its ability to employ force at scale decreased. The resulting dynamic became a paradox: As Moscow fielded more forces, the value of that mass steadily diminished. The quality that the Russians expected to come from attaining quantitative advantages did not appear on the battlefield but was, over time, offset by Ukrainian adaptation, technology, and Western capital. Russian force expansion offered a window of opportunity to attain battlefield gains, but this advantage proved indecisive, eventually yielding diminishing returns. Russian mass ran into an effective counter: mass precision mixed with traditional capabilities (land mines, prepared defensive positions, and artillery), as Ukrainian units invested in drones and other capabilities that minimized the traditional advantages offered by manpower overmatch.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:44 am to Chromdome35
quote:Very good, extensive article, showing how technical changes are far more significant than numbers of soldiers or yesterday's equipment.
This is a really good article covering the evolution of raising forces by the Russians throughout the war.
The older tactics and logistics are problematic enough, but when faced with technically-superior weaponry, any offensive movement becomes unattainable. This will be the fate of any further Russian mobilization. Just more of the same.
For military and political leaders this is the hardest thing to understand and many are still refusing to accept the results of this war. Or the present war against Iran, for that matter.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
You can run, but you can't hide...
quote:That deck tank on #117 was just waiting... and yes, it was loaded.
Black Sea: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces opened the Black Sea campaign on July 15.
During the first night, USF drones hunted down 20 Russian vessels: 17 oil tankers, 2 gas carriers and 1 tug.
The total score of the July 6 to 15 maritime campaign is now 136 Russian vessels hit: 116 in the Sea of Azov from July 6 to 14, and 20 more in the Black Sea on July 15.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/15/26 at 4:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:00 am to Coeur du Tigre
Another dry cargo vessel. There are far more damaged vessels than port facilities that can take them for repair. Which means almost all of them will have to swing on the hook for months. IF they can get to an anchorage.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/15/26 at 5:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
Russia is so fricked.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 6:27 am to notiger1997
quote:Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian Black Sea shipping oilprice.com
After striking 116 vessels linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Sea of Azov in recent weeks, Ukraine’s military is turning its sights on ships in the Black Sea, hitting in drone attacks as many as 20 vessels overnight on Wednesday.
Ukrainian forces struck 17 Russia-linked oil tankers, 2 gas carriers, and one tugboat early on July 15, drone unit commander Robert Brovdi said on Telegram today, adding that an official report with video evidence would follow later in the day.
“The first round of the naval battle is over,” the commander wrote, referring to the Sea of Azov, where Ukraine had focused its drone attack efforts in the past few weeks, alongside targeting refineries deep into Russian territory.
“Now, the Black Sea,” Brovdi said, hinting that Ukraine’s campaign to strike oil and gas vessels is expanding to the Black Sea, a key export route for crude and fuels from the south of Russia.
Ukraine has ramped up drone attacks against Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov and Taganrog Bay. Ukrainian officials reported striking 15 vessels in a single overnight operation on July 14, bringing their total to over 105 targeted ships within an eight-day window. These strikes have been targeting tankers and cargo ships suspected of belonging to Russia’s "shadow fleet" or transporting looted Ukrainian grain and fuel supplies.
Russia has also attacked commercial vessels near Odesa. A Tuesday attack killed five seafarers and injured 12 others in one of the deadliest single strikes on commercial shipping since the start of the war. According to Odesa authorities, a Russian drone struck a Togo-flagged general cargo ship while it was unloading fertilizer, sparking a major fire, while the Russian defense ministry claims the strikes were targeting military cargo.
The ramp-up of the naval strikes comes alongside a months-long Ukrainian campaign to hit Russian refineries to cripple fuel supply and deepen the fuel crisis in Russia.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
Posted on 7/15/26 at 6:52 am to Coeur du Tigre
More like a river barge fleet at Hackberry on the GIWW.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 7:17 am to CitizenK
Posted on 7/15/26 at 7:23 am to cypher
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Commander Robert “Magyar” Brovdi just answered:
“MLCHK — MOskva Lyazhe Cherez Krym.
Moscow will fall through Crimea.
Amen. Everything is black and white.”
The logic behind the name is the logic behind the operation: Crimea is Putin’s greatest propaganda trophy. Russia’s seizure of the peninsula in 2014 was presented as the defining achievement of his regime. Its loss would be a blow the Kremlin may not survive.
So Ukraine is making Crimea impossible to hold — systematically, ship by ship, substation by substation, bridge by bridge.
And today — on Ukrainian Statehood Day — Magyar announced the operation has expanded to the Black Sea.
Round 1 in the Azov Sea: 116 vessels struck.
Round 2 opens in the Black Sea: 20 vessels struck overnight — 17 oil tankers, 2 gas carriers, 1 tugboat.
The Azov is done.
The Black Sea is next.
MoLoCHKa continues.
Moscow will fall through Crimea.
Posted on 7/15/26 at 7:50 am to cypher
Posted on 7/15/26 at 7:53 am to cypher
Bloomberg. And this is just production at the refineries. I am looking for data of added logistical problems this causes both upstream (wells, pumps. pipelines) and downstream (retail). Ok, the retail damage is easy to see - there are dozens and dozens of videos of Russians in vehicle lines each day... Just breaks your heart.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/15/26 at 7:57 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
US has begun the practical process of issuing licenses to Ukraine for the production of Patriot missiles, — Kyiv Independent
According to the Ukrainian official, thanks to the constructive position of the Americans, the licensing process will progress faster than predicted a few months ago.
Key American defense giant Lockheed Martin, which directly produces these missiles, fully supports the provision of the necessary licenses to Ukraine.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. 
Posted on 7/15/26 at 7:59 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 7/15/26 at 8:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
The naval yard of Severodvinsk, where all of Russia's nuclear submarines are / were built, now has been stripped of all AD missiles. That's just an one example of many.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/15/26 at 8:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
Speaking of technical advances superseding yesterday's tactics, remember when Kyiv was sweating artillery ammunition supply? Scratching for shells all over the world. Those days are over.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 7/15/26 at 9:04 am to Coeur du Tigre
so Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine caused an existential threat backed by an overwhelming availability of personnel.
Technology has reversed that threat with overwhelming drone/missile attacks on Russia creating an existential threat there.
Soooo Russia now needs to reassert itself by escalation with one of 2 choices. Power plant and bridge day in /Ukraine or pot shoting European marine/rail transportation and obvious centers that support Ukraine.
Aggression is not going to work until either Ukraine/Euros's or Russia goes all in no holds barred. that's a very bad result.
Most rational approach? Discontinuing support of Ukraine, forcing the nazi to negotiate peace
Technology has reversed that threat with overwhelming drone/missile attacks on Russia creating an existential threat there.
Soooo Russia now needs to reassert itself by escalation with one of 2 choices. Power plant and bridge day in /Ukraine or pot shoting European marine/rail transportation and obvious centers that support Ukraine.
Aggression is not going to work until either Ukraine/Euros's or Russia goes all in no holds barred. that's a very bad result.
Most rational approach? Discontinuing support of Ukraine, forcing the nazi to negotiate peace
Posted on 7/15/26 at 9:05 am to Coeur du Tigre
Ukros just lost Odessa port. Nothing is leaving or coming in.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/russian-attack-on-odesa-kills-three-as-ukraine-targets-vessels-in-black-sea
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/russian-attack-on-odesa-kills-three-as-ukraine-targets-vessels-in-black-sea
Posted on 7/15/26 at 9:19 am to Based1984
You won't be here long. Again.
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