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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Posted on 6/21/26 at 1:10 pm to
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3583 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

Russian propaganda will portray it in the context of It is NATOand the west that are attacking us


It’s not? How is Ukraine targeting these mid- and long-range missile attacks? It ain’t Ukrainian satellites I promise you that.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
5994 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

A local realtor and property agent, speaking on condition of anonymity [you bet ], told Crimea.Realities about this. According to his information, the supply in the real estate market in Sevastopol currently exceeds the demand by several times, which leads to a significant drop in prices in some segments of the market.


Stories of normal life in a war zone are always so bizarre, but ultimately so insightful.

It’s hard to imagine anything like a real estate transaction happening right now on Crimea. A buyer backing out because of a foundation issue.

But in the end the overwhelming, truly overwhelming, percentage of people just want to buy or rent a house, go to the grocery, get their kids braces adjusted.

It’s not cowardice. It’s survival. It also explains why 5% of a population can take over and brutalize a nation.
Posted by 844_Tiger
Down_Under
Member since Jul 2021
748 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

It’s not?

Show me on the Ukraine map the location of the NATO troops engaging russian troops.

quote:

It ain’t Ukrainian satellites I promise you that.

The Russians were giving Iran intel on the position of american troops and bases, so they could engage us with drones.
By your broad definition we were being attacked by Russia, were we?
BTW.. this is not a gotcha question, just curious to see if you are logically consistent.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21038 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

Every theory of Ukrainian victory relies on magical thinking regarding some kind of extreme political collapse in Russia.


No, it relies on nationwide fuel shortages in Russia crippling the Russian economy, and it relies on a forced civilian evacuation of Crimea.

The Ukrainian mid-range strike campaign is now taking out 30 Russian trucks every day. LINK

The long-range strike campaign is endangering the entire Russian economy and financial system. And both of these are still ramping up, while Russia shows no signs of any plan to counter these threats. How are things not going to get a whole lot worse for Russia before they get better?

quote:

will only harden Russian resolve.


Plenty of polls in Russia show a public increasingly ready for the war to end. You are correct that there is no major political instability in Russia at the moment, but what happens when there's no gasoline? What happens after the humiliation of a forced civilian evacuation of Crimea?

That's when Putin decides that the war has to end, and then there's a ceasefire?. Obviously, in a war, things can change. Predicting the future is a fool's errand, and it's made me look like a fool several times already in this war. But, right now, I cannot imagine how this war continues into 2027.
This post was edited on 6/21/26 at 2:01 pm
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3583 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 2:53 pm to
I knew before I clicked your link it would be a tweet. There is no doubt that Ukraine continues to absolutely dominate on the English language social media front.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13518 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

Russia will secure the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea.

Russia had a land bridge to Crimea. Which it has now lost. It is now illegal to buy or sell fuel as a civilian in Crimea. And that situation will get worse.

Russia has evacuated its Navy from Sevastopol. Which was literally the whole point of capturing the place to begin with.

Crimea is a lost cause for Russia.

quote:

Russia will secure the Donbas

When will this happen? They've been trying to pull this off since literally 2014. And with their entire army since 2022. So when will this be secured? This year? Next year? Another 5 years? Another million casualties?
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42756 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

Russia will secure the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea. Then it will have accomplished all of its principal war aims. Russia continues achieving victory after victory on the battlefield (Mirnihrad, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka). This seems like fairly straightforward conclusion.


Didn’t Russia secure the land bridge only to lose parts and now they are losing more and their lack of control of the skies has allowed that.
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3583 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 3:40 pm to
quote:

they are losing more


Where? I don’t think that is right.
Posted by T1gerNate
Member since Feb 2020
3583 posts
Posted on 6/21/26 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

And that situation will get worse


I doubt it. Probably, the situation will stabilize. But even in the absolute worst case scenario, which I guess would be a temporary civilian evacuation of the entire peninsula, still Russia would control Crimea, and Ukraine has no hope, ever, of winning it back.
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