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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:18 am to Coeur du Tigre
The penny is starting to drop in the media...
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Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:21 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:29 am to Coeur du Tigre
Business models abound. Maybe Russia can export their world class refinery repair teams to the ME. No one has more experience patching up destroyed processing units.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:37 am to Coeur du Tigre
Moscow and St. Petersburg entering their tenth day with no Internet connectivity.
Is this how you prevent an uprising in the population? Yes, if the population is Russian. All they'll do is whine.
Is this how you prevent an uprising in the population? Yes, if the population is Russian. All they'll do is whine.
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Posted on 3/15/26 at 6:47 am to CitizenK
quote:
Only because you have a James Carville level of TDS.
You deserve an upvote for this alone.
The rest of your statement is spot on as well.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 11:18 am to DMAN1968
quote:
You deserve an upvote for this alone.
That "educated" idiot didn't understand that the lift of sanctions on Russian crude is ONLY for crude oil already on ships, and not anything not yet loaded. The crude on those tankers was already sold, Russia gets no benefit of any price increase.
This post was edited on 3/15/26 at 11:20 am
Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:03 pm to CitizenK
So, after bringing a spicy take here yesterday, I'm back today with an even spicier one:
It's probably better for NATO that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, and a ceasefire that freezes the current line of conflict is an effective guardian against a Russian invasion of Estonia or any other NATO country.
Why? It's really very simple. Ukraine is going to maintain a very powerful military for the foreseeable future. As long as Ukraine doesn't formally cede its territory to Russia, then a Russian attack on NATO is simply impossible.
It's taking Russia's full effort to fight Ukraine right now, and Ukraine is only going to get stronger when it joins the EU and gets all the economic benefits of that. How in the world do people imagine that Russia can invade Estonia in a few years? If they tried, Ukraine would be in Mariupol in a week. There's zero way that Russia will be able to generate the force necessary to invade a NATO country, while also defending its conquered Ukrainian territory.
In that sense, a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine is NATO's best guarantee of peace. We don't need Ukraine in NATO, because we wouldn't need them to send troops to Estonia if Russia were to invade, because Ukraine would simply retake Bakhmut, etc.
So all the Europeans worrying about how long it would take Russia to regenerate the strength needed to attack NATO? They are worrying for nothing, because the only way that could happen would be if there were a true, comprehensive peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, and that's not going to happen.
It's probably better for NATO that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, and a ceasefire that freezes the current line of conflict is an effective guardian against a Russian invasion of Estonia or any other NATO country.
Why? It's really very simple. Ukraine is going to maintain a very powerful military for the foreseeable future. As long as Ukraine doesn't formally cede its territory to Russia, then a Russian attack on NATO is simply impossible.
It's taking Russia's full effort to fight Ukraine right now, and Ukraine is only going to get stronger when it joins the EU and gets all the economic benefits of that. How in the world do people imagine that Russia can invade Estonia in a few years? If they tried, Ukraine would be in Mariupol in a week. There's zero way that Russia will be able to generate the force necessary to invade a NATO country, while also defending its conquered Ukrainian territory.
In that sense, a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine is NATO's best guarantee of peace. We don't need Ukraine in NATO, because we wouldn't need them to send troops to Estonia if Russia were to invade, because Ukraine would simply retake Bakhmut, etc.
So all the Europeans worrying about how long it would take Russia to regenerate the strength needed to attack NATO? They are worrying for nothing, because the only way that could happen would be if there were a true, comprehensive peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, and that's not going to happen.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 2:56 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In that sense, a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine is NATO's best guarantee of peace.
No, it's not. To simplify further, everyone's only guarantee of peace is a permanently destroyed Russian government. A destroyed Kremlin, a destroyed security apparatus, a dead Putin, arrested siloviki, Federal Regions broken off and made independent from Moscow. All oil and gas production and transport permanently under the control of the Ukrainian military.
A modern-day Morganthau Plan. Except with Russians, it will be a lot easier. Unlike the Germans, they are happy living in Middle Age slums with outdoor toilets and no jobs. Some people require a permanent boot on their throats. Russians are those kinds of people and the Ukrainians have the boots.
Only when this is achieved will we end the Russian threat. Not one minute before.
This post was edited on 3/15/26 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 3/15/26 at 3:32 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
everyone's only guarantee of peace is a permanently destroyed Russian government.
Well, I was speaking about what is practical and likely, not in terms of what would be best in a fantasy world.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 4:00 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Which satellite gets nukes? Chechnya would not be good place for any nukes to be captured
Posted on 3/15/26 at 9:10 pm to CitizenK
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Ukrainian drones struck a Russian oil depot in Labinsk, Krasnodar Krai, overnight on March 16, setting the site ablaze, Telegram news channel Exilenova Plus reported, citing local residents.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 10:57 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Anyone upset about the Iran operation who has chirped for years about how good supporting Ukraine is for the US is a fricking hypocrite..sorry.
You're just worried about how the oil price increase impacts Ukraine. You don't actually give a shite about US interests abroad. This is truly a mask off movement... Take note of who is saying what right now and remember it.
Typical Neocon response... I got it tons when I opposed the invasion of Iraq, which was some or other essential thing for US interests and peace in the region... until nobody who supported would admit that they did after a while.
The Khamenei regime needed to go. Are they gone? No. I suspect they're taking advantage of this situation to exterminate the internal opposition... and who is there to report on it? Or stop it?
They will not be toppled until somebody invades the country... who will that be?
This was a frick up. You own that...
Posted on 3/15/26 at 11:01 pm to CitizenK
quote:
It's a matter of weeks, but the men without balls are bitching and moaning about spending $10 more a week on gasoline.
I work from home the vast majority of the time, my office is less than a mile away, the kiddo's school is 2 miles away, and one of our cars is a Prius, so it could be $50 a gallon and I wouldn't really give a shite, personally. I guess I have the biggest balls.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 11:07 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:38 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Well, I was speaking about what is practical and likely, not in terms of what would be best in a fantasy world.
Nothing personal, but let's pay attention to what's been happening over the last four years. The Ukrainians have been turning fantasy into reality every day. Stop imagining Russia as it was in the last Century and start looking at what it is in reality right now.
And to be perfectly realistic, the Ukrainians will only have to go maintain order once the internal Russian collapse takes place. The Ukrainians are winning the drone war and between that and the sanctions are choking the life out of the Russian economy. Putin is already bunkered up behind his urban Internet blackouts and shutdown of all social media. He has not made a single visit to any military or security headquarters since November, to say nothing of public appearances. That's the reality. What do you think that means?
This summer we will see the Ukrainians target Moscow - militarily the most target-rich location in the country. This war will come to Putin and his supporters and no one is going to be able to stop that. After a month or two of nightly attacks, Putin and the siloviki will start flying to China and there will be open war between the factions of the security agencies.
That's when the Ukrainians cross the border and take what they want - permanent boots to the throat security throughout the country.
That's the reality. If you wish to indulge in your childhood fantasies, go ahead. Maybe the Russian army will capture Kyiv this week. But I prefer to look at things as they are when the evidence is overabundant.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 1:48 am to CitizenK
quote:
Which satellite gets nukes? Chechnya would not be good place for any nukes to be captured
Remenber, we'll be dealing with Russians. What do Russians want more than anything? To protect the Motherland? Please. All those types are now dead.
When the collapse comes and there is little organized chain of command or national government left in Russia, the rats will realize how valuable the nukes are for bargaining chips and they will sell them quickly. Beach villa on the Mediterranean for each megaton, etc. The only problem NATO will have is trying to get enough manpower to control all these newly-purchased weapons.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 4:41 am to Coeur du Tigre
I'll grant you this: Russia could collapse in the result of Putin's death. He could have a heart attack and die tomorrow, and various factions among the military, siloviki, and FSB would begin competing for control. The winner would likely be the person who controlled the bulk of military and other power in the Moscow region, and that would likely mean military commanders moving troops away from Ukraine. It would also likely lead to Chechnya, etc. breaking away.
Putin has deliberately avoided setting up any kind of succession plan---largely because such a plan could create an opportunity for a coup. But that same failure to create such a plan will doom Russia when Putin eventually dies.
Putin has deliberately avoided setting up any kind of succession plan---largely because such a plan could create an opportunity for a coup. But that same failure to create such a plan will doom Russia when Putin eventually dies.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 7:28 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'll grant you this: Russia could collapse in the result of Putin's death. He could have a heart attack and die tomorrow, and various factions among the military, siloviki, and FSB would begin competing for control. The winner would likely be the person who controlled the bulk of military and other power in the Moscow region, and that would likely mean military commanders moving troops away from Ukraine. It would also likely lead to Chechnya, etc. breaking away.
Putin has deliberately avoided setting up any kind of succession plan---largely because such a plan could create an opportunity for a coup. But that same failure to create such a plan will doom Russia when Putin eventually dies.
Now you're seeing things as they are. Putin won't have to die to lose power but once he's gone it's anarchy. As you pointed out. Then the Ukrainian troops will take over. They'll ring fence the Russian security forces and let them kill each other while the smart ones deal for the nukes. All kinds of new 'Ukrainian' troops will stream in to take control of these weapons and facilitate their removal to points West.
The Ukrainians have won this war. They are now fighting for the peace. That will be nothing less than unconditional surrender and total occupational control by the Ukrainians and their friends. Nothing less.
Posted on 3/16/26 at 8:15 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The Ukrainians have won this war. They are now fighting for the peace. That will be nothing less than unconditional surrender and total occupational control by the Ukrainians and their friends. Nothing less.
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