re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Ukraine may well take Kupyansk, but it does appear people were shooting their load a little early regarding it based on false reporting from Ukraine's end.

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Ok, since we will be hearing a lot about some nebulous "US security guarantees" in the coming months, let's examine this issue.

Firstly, it's one of those grey areas that are commonly found in Russian negotiation terms. They believe their opponent is too desperate or deeply in denial to question such nonsense too closely. The opponent wants it to mean what they hope it means. Not what it in reality it is - just another Russian lie.

But there it is, which shows the Russians actually believe the Ukrainians will bite. As a former German Chancellor said of Putin, "What planet does he live on?"

So none of this will happen until Putin is dead or living in China. But since it's the weekend and the LSU season is now over, let's look at what a successful US security guarantee needs to be to actually work. That's "to be", not "to look like".

It must have two things in place before any Ukrainian stand down:

1.) An overwhelming force projection of non-nuclear offensive US military weapons located within Ukraine. That means weapons, equipment and intelligence support. Enough to flatten every Ru military target all the way to Vladivostok. Three times over.

2.) The command of this force will naturally be given to the Ukrainians but under specific limitations. Kyiv has shown restraint under US limitations before, notably under the Biden administration (Trump hasn't really given them the chance).

The restraint will be simple - no use of this equipment unless in response to attacks on Ukrainian soil (pre-1993 soil). Responses should be exponential to each incident but not singularly overwhelming. Explain to Lukashenko that US missiles don't recognize Belarusian borders. One Shahed attack and the Yelabuga site is gone. Another missile attack and that manufacturing site is gone along with every logistics target within 50 miles. Rinse and repeat.

So the Russians control the damage they receive. This is the only way to bring them to serious negotiations.

Of course, Putin will never give his blessing for this as he would not survive any long term cease fire. So until TACO grows a pair and ships the Tomahawks, his role will remain as a Russian mouthpiece. Something he is well suited for but as his credibility is now shot, will be less and less effective at going forward. Basically, people will only listen to him to find out what the Russians are thinking. Just as they are now.

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Ahead of the Zelensky-Trump meeting, a key issue is US security guarantees. Washington has drafted a “platinum standard” package, comparable to NATO Article 5, and Trump is willing to take it to Congress. Binding US-backed guarantees are seen as essential to deter renewed Russian aggression.

“This is the most robust set of security protocols they have ever seen. It is a very, very strong package,” a senior US official said, without detailing exactly what the US was promising. Trump is willing to bring the US-backed security guarantees before Congress, a second official said, describing the package as the “platinum standard” for what Washington can offer Ukraine.

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Rebar made in China shatters when dropped.

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I'm still waiting on you to show you know anything about anything other than how to use a keyboard to type a bunch of words that sometimes belong together.

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It's funny, I didn't know I was supposed to impress a random guy on SECrant.com about political/military subjects. I'll make a note.

But seriously, Vol, I've given you a number of correct assessments, you just reject them out of hand. I've back them with reliable sources, you call them BS. Whatever, you have the right to reject them, but if you just want to reject them for the sake of rejecting them, so be it. Just don't turn into a TexAg, that would be depressing.

The bottom line is that Russia is f*cked, Ukraine's manpower issues are a concern but not dire, and we're probably not anywhere closer to peace than we were when Trump took office. I can definetly be wrong, and hope I am, but until Russia decides they want peace there isn't going to be any.

Good luck against Illinois.

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It's funny, I didn't know I was supposed to impress a random guy on SECrant.com about political/military subjects. I'll make a note

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For the sake of accuracy I said "anything", not just those two subjects.

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But seriously, Vol, I've given you a number of correct assessments, you just reject them out of hand.

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No, you spout opinions and act like they are verified facts. You rarely if ever back anything up with data or sources. And that's completely fine if you act like they are opinions, but you don't.

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Apparently I make everything up

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Not everything, just the things you say that are obviously bullshite.

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anonymous sources on x

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You have linked YouTube videos as sources numerous times

I have actually enjoyed interacting with you lately, but I do think you're kind of a bullshitter. A lot of people are kind of bullshitters, it's not a huge deal.

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1.) An overwhelming force projection of non-nuclear offensive US military weapons located within Ukraine. That means weapons, equipment and intelligence support. Enough to flatten every Ru military target all the way to Vladivostok. Three times over.

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Never going to happen.
That's just stupid.

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2.) The command of this force will naturally be given to the Ukrainians but under specific limitations. Kyiv has shown restraint under US limitations before, notably under the Biden administration (Trump hasn't really given them the chance).

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I mean it's already crazytalk.

I counter you with eventually Ukraine gives in they sign a peace deal and we train their forces and give them weapons... hoping for the best.

It probably all goes to hell again in 5 years anyway.

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I stated that Russia's offense is failing then provide an independent source, the ISW, that showed that Russia took less than 1% of the Ukraine over the course of 2025.

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You and like 5 other posters can quote the ISW and let them think for you, here is your kudos. And I don't believe I disagreed with any of that, btw.

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then used Wikipedia

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We discussed donations, and how those can be manipulated, ad nauseum in the old thread. It was a frequent topic. I think it's pretty obvious we manipulated the numbers there, but that's more of an accounting thing than it is anything malicious.

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I've stated the Russians logistics trail is trash then showed videos and photos of them using donkeys, posed by the Russians, as proof.

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I've talked about them using donkeys myself

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I've stated that the Russians are incapable of executing Combined Arms and have no Non-Commissioned officer corps, and that prevents them from taking large swaths of the Ukraine at a time, and then posted a paper on the US Army's stating this own website for their own purposes, as proof.

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The army who can't beat a much smaller force isn't good tactically? You had to read a paper to figure that out?

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I've stated numerous times that Russia's economy is turning into garbage and then posted an independent source to back it up.

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And I think my only issue with that logic is that I don't believe we've fully captured the runway Russia's economic shift has given them (and that is evidenced by previous predictions that their economy should have been dead a year or more ago).

So you didn't provide a single example of you posting anything that I disregarded or didn't already know, and most of which I actually agree with at least to some extent if not fully.

Also 5 examples when you post probably.... 5 times per day here? Thats not really that much. I'm not dropping sources left and right either but I'm also pretty clear that I'm saying my opinions and not claiming to be some amateur military scholar.

I've bought and sold chemical and refining process equipment for decades including entire plants. As a result, I have met and discussed things of global importance with some high ranking folks, industrial circles and not all are Americans. A friend is a think tank dude formerly associated with Heritage, but left them sometime back to spend time in Kazakhstan and the Middle East. He is originally from Ukraine where his father was one of the top geologists for the USSR and discovered lots of smaller natural gas deposits which were too far away from any pipeline and laying a pipeline to them was too expensive even over time to pay for the expense.

I have not spread bullcrap like there are many hydrocracker manufacturers in Houston, or I bought two process gas compressors, off the shelf, for Exxon Baytown, like bullshitter TexAg has claimed. The only bullshitter is TexAg. It was suck to be a loser at life

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quote:ISW confirms Russian capture of Hulyaipole.

The linked map is hard to read. Do you have a link to the ISW report indicating that Hulyaipole has been captured. Your map doesn’t indicate that it has.

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Nevermind, I found this from ISW posted today: The real stuff

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ISW has only observed open-source evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in roughly 55 percent of Hulyaipole

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