re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

quote:

---

Russia isn't galloping across Ukraine full steam ahead, but things have been trending their way for a while on the front

---

Are things really going their way?

In the past three years could they have spent an inordinate amount of resources to gain the small bit of ground that they have realized; thus placing themselves in jeopardy economically and militarily.

quote:

---

Ground you gain but can't hold is ultimately useless because of the cost (Kursk).

---

Yes and no.

If Russia had to divert valuable resources away from the current fronts to take Kursk back and Ukraine’s losses were such there was a big net gain overall then it could have been a success.

Having said that I haven't seen anything that tells me that Ukraine did come out ahead.

And don’t forget Russia gained significant ground in Kharkiv and Kherson only to lose it. It works both ways.

This war is a long way from over. I don’t see a military ending and as long as Putin is alive it will continue. Putin is the only person who can end it all.

quote:

---

Things are trending their way along the front I would say.

---

Their gains are larger than their losses, but is it really going their way? Time will tell.

Germany to fund 200 Ukrainian howitzers and buy drones in €1.2 billion deal


https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/germany-to-fund-200-ukrainian-howitzers-and-1765995544.html

quote:

---

I think I've been pretty clear that I think they have severe issues at every operational level, but they aren't as severe as some Ukraine sunshine pumpers think they are.

---

It's worse. There's no indication that the average Russian commander has the ability to do anything but put a gun to a conscripts head and say 'run in that direction until you get shot.' That's a literal statement. The stories coming out of the Russian military sound like a literal hell-on-earth narrative and the on-the-ground results from the past few years back those notions up entirely. I mean, you can criticize me and the others for being sunshiners but it's helluva lot easier considering the Russians suck so bad at war right now.

quote:

---

More like they are missing a leg and bleeding out instead of shot in the head yet

---

The leg situation is worse if nobody knows how to put on a torniquet....

Late, but better than never.

Europe is the original LNG importer. First from the US via the first LNG carrier the Methane Explorer loaded at Lake Charles. Later, St. Nazaire became the shipyard in France where all of LNG carriers were built due the exports from Algeria mostly to France.

Putin just can't moderate his behavior and the fact that there was an at-that-time unbroken agreement to protect electrical generation facilities from attack was just too tempting. FAFO, Chapter 874.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

Forget about the REPOS, look at that liquidity. The entire reason for REPO issuance is to boost liquidity but it's clearly failing now. Complete disconnect, money velocity at zero, continued REPO issuance at this point is just pure hyperinflation.

Note these are Russian stats, so real numbers could be worse.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

To help illustrate the gravity of this current situation, a short refresh on the REPO system -

REPOS are not issued for anyone's profit, they are issued solely to maintain liquidity and confidence in the Central Bank's ability to control the financial economy. Here we go -

Central Bank issues REPO loans to a group of the largest, strongest commercial banks in the country. These Commercial Banks must accept the REPO loans and pay for them.

However, a short time later, sometimes just days, the Central Bank repurchases these loans from the Commerical Banks at a small profit for the Commerical Banks. Less than 1% normally.

Then, a short period later, the Central Bank issues another tranch of REPO loans, again which the Commerical Banks must purchase. These are quickly repurchased by the Central Bank, again at a small profit for the Commerical Banks.

This happens over and over. No one is making any real money here but that's not the point. What is happening is the guaranteed circulation of money - the liquidity of the economy. Also called money velocity, this circulation is the foundation of a healthy capitalist economy.

In regards to the situation in Russia now, let's compare the American experience. In 1929, the Governors of the Federal Reserve believed the economy was overheated and there was too much excess money in the stock market. So they did the worst thing they could have and shut down all REPO loans and all other financial support to the Commerical Banks. Thus killing liquidity and guaranteeing that a stock market crash ballooned into a decade-long depression.

Alternatively, in 2008 with the CDO crash in the bond and stock markets, the then head of the Federal Reserve (Ben Bernanke, the GOAT ), knew better. He did the exact opposite and flooded ("helicoptered") money into the system, guaranteeing both financial stability due to plentiful liquidity and also confidence in the government's ability to control the damage.

And bingo, crash cleaned up within months and 2010 was a bull market year, the start of a bull market run that we are still enjoying today.

But everything depends on the close relationship and effectiveness between issuing REPOs and maintaining strong liquidity. So now let's go back and look at that graph. The Russian Central Bank has overloaded the economy with REPOs and they are not repurchasing all of them. In fact, only about half of all REPOs issued now are repurchased, and some of those are with script contracts (IOU's).

So now REPOs are not providing liquidity (or two-way liquidity at least...), money circulation is completely unhinged from Central Bank control and liquidity is at zero and still falling. At the same time, the RU Central Bank is pouring more now-ineffective REPOs onto the fire, driving inflation in the fastest method possible. They are now printing money into an economy that has no where to put it except into higher prices for everything.

Ok, pedantic navel gazing over. TL;DR? Russia fricked brah.

quote:

---

in temporarily occupied Crimea

---

Ukraine reporting that they've taken back 90% of Kupiansk, and, of course, Russia denies it with even the Russian military bloggers backing the Ukrainian claim:

Ukraine takes back Kupiansk