re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Russian warbloggers have repeatedly criticised the Russian Ministry of Defence for exaggerating or simply lying about successes at Kupyansk. As early as 6 July, 'Military Informant' pointed out that there was no visual evidence of claimed advances.

"Either the Russian Armed Forces, in complete silence for several weeks, have made an unexpected breakthrough that will soon lead to the loss of Kupyansk for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, or someone in this area is making purely virtual advances and this will soon be revealed."

As usual when falsely claimed advances are exposed, 'Voenkor Kotenok' reported a few days later that highly trained specialists – in this case artillerymen – were being rounded up and expended as assault troops in an effort to turn the claimed advance into reality.

The prominent Russian warblog Rybar commented on 14 July that "the comments of official representatives, modified to suit the needs of journalists, are in fact not connected in any way to the situation "on the ground" and are designed more for momentary hype than for the reliable delivery of information to the audience." The channel criticised premature claims of victory as "at the very least, premature, and, at the very worst, disrespectful to the soldiers advancing in its vicinity."

'Two Majors', another prominent Russian warblog, blamed commanders on the ground for lying to their superiors: "'Taking on credit' is difficult to accept at the front and demoralises people on the ground, ever since the era of the previous defense minister's 'Krynki report.'

"Nevertheless, the obvious question remains unanswered: did the local command really embellish the already “beautiful report” to the top and mislead the Centre?"

'Voenkor Kotenok' said that this was exactly what had happened: "It seems that even the leadership of the Ministry of Defense has fallen for the bait of cheerful reports about the liberation of villages.

By the end of August, the Russian military claimed to have completely surrounded Kupyansk and taken half the city. This was too big a lie for Yuri Podolyaka, one of Russia's most prominent warbloggers: "After all, all of this is ultimately reported to the Supreme Commander [Putin]. And this, to put it mildly, is a gross exaggeration of our successes on this section of the front."

He pointed out that the claim was backed up by the flimsiest evidence – a Russian flag being dropped by drone onto the city's TV tower in a so-called "anti-crisis operation", after hard questions were asked about Gerasimov's claims.

'Rupor Fausta Z', a war veteran, commented that the troops were "really sick of liberating Kupyansk. Like Bilohorivka, they take it 10 times a year, but they still haven't taken it...

Despite the ridicule, Gerasimov repeated the same claims about Kupyansk in late October and added a claim that 18 Ukrainian battalions were trapped there.

This prompted Russian warbloggers to speculate that he was trying to impress Donald Trump as much as Vladimir Putin.

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This paper provides actionable insights for Ukraine and its international partners to exploit Russia's industrial weaknesses, disrupt its air defence production and enhance the balance of conventional deterrence in Europe.

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Key Recommendations:

Prevent Modernisation of Microelectronics Production:

Disrupt Russia's access to critical materials and technologies, such as beryllium oxide ceramics and advanced microprocessors, to hinder radar and missile production.

Enforce Targeted Sanctions: Impose sanctions on companies supplying raw materials, components and machine tools to Russia, including those from NATO member states and third countries.

Exploit Cyber Vulnerabilities: Leverage Russia's reliance on foreign software for designing and testing air defence systems to disrupt production and compromise system integrity.

Target Critical Nodes: Prioritise kinetic strikes on concentrated industrial hubs, such as Tula, to disrupt production of key systems like Pantsir SHORAD.

Reassess Russian Air Defence Reliability: Encourage international customers to reconsider the resilience and reliability of Russian air defence systems, given their exposure to disruption and potential technical compromise.

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No you are a Bush-Cheney neocon.

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Fresh from the Bloomberg vault: Russian oil prices crater to war-era lows. Urals at $38-41/bbl

Reuters: Russia's Syzran oil refinery on the Volga halted processing Dec 5 after Ukrainian drone damage to its core AVT-6 unit (70% of capacity).

This Rosneft beast processes ~90k bpd – now offline, slashing output amid November's record 14-refinery hits.

Bloomberg: 38 tankers sailed last week — a 3-year high at 3.68M bpd.

Urals in Novorossiysk: $38/bbl (down $2.80)
Primorsk: $41/bbl (down $2.40). Discount to Brent: $25.80 – historic lows.

180M barrels of Russian oil now stuck at sea.

Bloomberg: That’s +28% since August, the highest in 2.5 years.
Tankers drift as floating storage while routes stretch toward Asia.
Buyers hesitate even at fire-sale prices.

“Russia is operating at a loss to its own budget.”
Bloomberg admits it: Moscow floods markets with cheap crude just to keep flows alive —

This oil apocalypse hits the frontlines.

Hydrocarbon taxes: –34% YoY to $6.7B (Nov). With oil at war-lows, 2025 shortfalls > $25B.

Deficit: 5.7T rubles & rising.

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“Russia is operating at a loss to its own budget.”
Bloomberg admits it: Moscow floods markets with cheap crude just to keep flows alive —

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