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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Posted on 10/19/25 at 10:39 am to
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42611 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 10:39 am to
Go review articles over the last three years and they all say the same things. Russia is losing thousands of men, but their gains are growing. It’s the same for 23, 24 and now 25.

The key thing to watch is not whether or not Russia is gaining more of less area than the year before, but whether or not there are significant tactical gains.

Russia had significant tactical gains early. They took Mariupol and Kherson City only to lose it. Later they took Bakmuth. Of late they did recapture most of Kursk with NK helping.

Recently they have failed to take any significant targets although thousands have died over two years to take Pokrovsk and other key points in Donetsk.

Posted by Errerrerrwere
Member since Aug 2015
44412 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 11:45 am to
Bunch of military commanders in here

Meal Team Six

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134885 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 11:49 am to
quote:

the last three years and they all say the same things. Russia is losing thousands of men, but their gains are growing. It’s the same for 23, 24 and now 25.
I just did the math.

Russia fought Germany in The Great Patriotic War for 48 months, June, 1941 (Germany's Operation Barbarossa) and ended in Germany's total defeat in May, 1945.

So, approximately 48 months.

Russia has been fighting Ukraine in its "Special Military Operation" for approximately 44 months, February, 2022 to today with no end in sight so far.

Russia has control of approximately 44,600 square miles of Ukraine's territory, or about 20% of Ukraine's pre-2014 territory.

But if Crimea (10,400 square miles) is subtracted from the territory Russia now occupies, since it was taken in 2014 and was not taken during the Special Military Operation, it means that Russia's war effort since February, 2022 has resulted in it "capturing" 34,200 square miles of Ukrainian territory during the SMO.

Ukraine's pre-2022 territorial size was approximately 233,000 square miles, with the territory Russia has captured resulting in as many as 1,000,000 of its military killed and wounded (250,000 KIA) which is only about 15% of Ukraine's 2022 territory.

Another way to look at it, Russia has had approximately 29 military personnel killed or wounded for every square mile it has captured during the SMO.

Extrapolating the loss ratio at the same rate of killed or wounded for Russia to conquer ALL of Ukraine's 233,000 square miles, Russia would lose 6,750,000 of its young men either KIA or wounded.

Is it worth it, Vladimir??
This post was edited on 10/19/25 at 12:19 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134885 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Bunch of military commanders in here
And several...
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42611 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Bunch of military commanders in here


I am not a military commander, but I can read and comment on what has happened.

Russia’s has had small gains with very few tactical successes despite their losses.

I’ve never said Ukraine is winning. I’ve said both sides are losing and in the end neither Russia, nor Ukraine will win.

Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134885 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

Since Russia’s occupation of Crimea in 2014, an increasing number of Russian-speaking Ukrainians have switched to Ukrainian.

My personal experience with language when I worked in Ukraine.

Most of the time I worked in Kiev but I had a one week assignment in Lviv in far western Ukraine near the border with Poland.

The first morning I was in Lviv I walked into the office to meet and greet my temporary work colleagues and I introduced myself to them speaking in Russian.

I immediately felt a chill in the room.

My assistant who traveled with me from Kiev leaned over and whispered in my ear, "Mr. XXXX, the people here in Lviv don't like hearing Russian being spoken."

So I switched to English (since I don't speak Ukrainian) and apologized and asked for their forgiveness for being a stupid American and promised I would not use Russian again. My assistant translated what I said, speaking Ukrainian, of course.

The chill disappeared with smiles all around and it was a great learning and work experience.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

Meal Team Six



We are all veterans of the Whataburger Wars of 2 or 3 weeks ago in here. Brush up on your history.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15715 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 12:58 pm to
quote:


Go review articles over the last three years and they all say the same things. Russia is losing thousands of men, but their gains are growing. It’s the same for 23, 24 and now 25.


That is true but the Telegram maps show territory taken because someone planted a flag at night without actually taking territory. Yes, Ukraine has been trading a football field at a time at the expense of thousands of Russians.

The fall of Popasna is what led to the fall of Bakhmut It allowed Russia to attack along an "East West ridge" where before it had only made advances in valleys to be cut off and chopped up from high ground. That vector allowed Lisichansk to be cut off from the rear and the high ground AROUND Bakhmut to be taken before Bakhmut.

Someone was paid off not to blow the only two bridges from Crimea is how Russia gained ground in the South. Mariupol held in 2014 because it wasn't surrounded like in 2022. Russia had made larger gains into the south but were thrown back in 2022. Ukrainian units were in fact able to penetrate and take out aircraft at the Kherson airport in Spring of 2022, easy as could be.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Seems like the rate of advance continues to be higher than it has been in a while. Some on X are saying they are actually being slow updating these maps, but those mostly seem to be pro Russian trolls. There is value in playing it slower and trying to be as accurate as possible even if the updates might not be as "real time" as you'd like.


but as has been documented, "infiltration events" are just a couple of Russian troops being sent on foot to sneak behind lines and take a pic, and maybe put a flag somewhere... then get killed by Ukrainian troops when it's posted and geotagged and they get found.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

quote:
Meal Team Six


We are all veterans of the Whataburger Wars of 2 or 3 weeks ago in here. Brush up on your history.


Some vets from the Sonic Conflicts...
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42611 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Some vets from the Sonic Conflicts...


I got a chili cheese hot dog with onions st Sonic Wednesday. It was good.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15715 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 1:34 pm to
Mine were in dive bars in Houston vs East Texas redneck meth head drywall crews, 1980s. They ran away
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 2:03 pm to
Trump is back on Team Putin. They should not let him talk directly to Putin... he seems to hypnotize him...

Financial Times (via YahooNews): Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin's terms, saying Russia could "destroy" Ukraine, FT reports

European officials briefed on the meeting said Trump appeared to echo many of Putin's talking points almost verbatim, even when they contradicted his own recent remarks about Russia's weakness.

According to one European official, Trump told Zelenskyy he should make a deal or face destruction, warning him: "If [Putin] wants it, he will destroy you."

At one point, the US president reportedly pushed aside maps of the battlefield, dismissing further discussion of the situation.

...

Three other European officials briefed on the White House discussions confirmed that Trump spent much of the meeting lecturing Zelenskyy, reiterating Putin's arguments about the war and urging him to accept the Russian offer.

This post was edited on 10/19/25 at 2:41 pm
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42611 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 2:08 pm to
Poor Charlie Brown.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

Some vets from the Sonic Conflicts.


Depending on your point of view, some people call it the Sonic Special Operation.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

Poor Charlie Brown.


I think they promised Trump they'd invite him to the next Strongman Party in China if he fell in line...
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15715 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 2:54 pm to
No Waffle House melees?
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42611 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

No Waffle House melees?


The Waffle Houses around me are seedy.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15715 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 3:24 pm to
IHOP too
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 10/19/25 at 3:31 pm to
Huddle House was the original seedy joint
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