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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 10:07 am to doubleb
Posted on 8/19/25 at 10:07 am to doubleb
The Russians are agreeing to the type security guarantees that were included in the Istanbul agreements in 2022. Security agreements that included many nations but those agreements had no enforcement mechanisms. Basically security agreements on paper. That is the reason the agreement was eventually turned down by Ukraine.
Remember Boris Johnson and his famous trip to see Zelensky? Johnson told Z that if they signed off on this the west would not or could not backup the security agreement arrangements. That would have left only Russia and it's allies as guarantees. Ukraine then turned it down.
Getting to the point that Russia will agree to Article 5 type guarantees with enforcement mechanisms for Ukraine is going to be very tough, if not impossible, to achieve. If Trump could ever get Putin to move to that position it would be a miracle. IMO I don't think it will happen or at best they are a long way off from it.
Putin did say in Alaska that they support security arrangements for Ukraine, but he supports the type arrangements that were included in Istanbul. If Ukraine has to agree to those type security arrangements they are screwed. It would be no better than the 94 Bucharest Memorandum.
If Putin ever agrees to non NATO article 5 type agreement for Ukraine he is basically backing off of his argument of NATO and Ukraine as being a root cause. This would be a major concession because this would be a backdoor for Ukraine and Nato. If this happens Z better insist that the agreement has solid enforcement mechanisms and is ratified in European parliaments and/or the Senate or it could be worthless. We would see how serious the Europeans are in regards to the future of Ukraine on whether they are willing to ratify it.
Remember Boris Johnson and his famous trip to see Zelensky? Johnson told Z that if they signed off on this the west would not or could not backup the security agreement arrangements. That would have left only Russia and it's allies as guarantees. Ukraine then turned it down.
Getting to the point that Russia will agree to Article 5 type guarantees with enforcement mechanisms for Ukraine is going to be very tough, if not impossible, to achieve. If Trump could ever get Putin to move to that position it would be a miracle. IMO I don't think it will happen or at best they are a long way off from it.
Putin did say in Alaska that they support security arrangements for Ukraine, but he supports the type arrangements that were included in Istanbul. If Ukraine has to agree to those type security arrangements they are screwed. It would be no better than the 94 Bucharest Memorandum.
If Putin ever agrees to non NATO article 5 type agreement for Ukraine he is basically backing off of his argument of NATO and Ukraine as being a root cause. This would be a major concession because this would be a backdoor for Ukraine and Nato. If this happens Z better insist that the agreement has solid enforcement mechanisms and is ratified in European parliaments and/or the Senate or it could be worthless. We would see how serious the Europeans are in regards to the future of Ukraine on whether they are willing to ratify it.
This post was edited on 8/19/25 at 10:56 am
2
Posted on 8/19/25 at 10:47 am to AU86
I agree, Ukraine can not cut a deal that does not provide them with a life line.
They also can not accept surrendering their version of the Magnit Libe to Russia after years of stopping Russia along that line. That would be very stupid.
There can be no deal that commits Ukraine to a peace that has no securities.
They also can not accept surrendering their version of the Magnit Libe to Russia after years of stopping Russia along that line. That would be very stupid.
There can be no deal that commits Ukraine to a peace that has no securities.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 10:54 am to doubleb
In regards to what is going on with security agreements alone, it gives one the idea of how complex and how hard it is going to be to stop this war.
And that is just one issue among many.
Trump is using the carrot with Putin now but he may have to use the stick to get Putin to budge. That might not be possible. Putin conceding on the security arrangements would be huge. But if he does he is going to piss a lot of hardliners off in Russia.
And that is just one issue among many.
Trump is using the carrot with Putin now but he may have to use the stick to get Putin to budge. That might not be possible. Putin conceding on the security arrangements would be huge. But if he does he is going to piss a lot of hardliners off in Russia.
This post was edited on 8/19/25 at 11:27 am
Posted on 8/19/25 at 11:19 am to AU86
security guarantees have to address Ukraines control of its nazi's that attack the Russian population. Thats what started the conflict 12 years ago. The nazi's trapping hundreds of russian civilians in a building in Odessa and setting fire to it pretty much broke all reason
Posted on 8/19/25 at 11:42 am to AU86
quote:
Trump floats the scenario of what exists in Ukraine in regards to elections, something that all of you support btw, occurring in the US in 3.5 years. Would you support that?
You and Trump apparently don't know the US Constitution at all.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 11:47 am to AU86
quote:
And that is just one issue among many.
You and I both realize that, but there are a lot of people that believes it’s simple.
Ukraine is fighting for their very existence. Putin is fighting to save face..
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:01 pm to doubleb
quote:
Key Takeaways: The Kremlin did not publicly commit to a bilateral or trilateral leader-level meeting, contrary to US President Donald Trump's announcement following the August 18 multilateral summit.
Putin's position is that Ukraine is not a sovereign state and not a "legal" one, but a "stolen" Russian territory... meeting with Zelensky will acknowledge that Ukraine is an actual sovereign nation.
No matter what he may tell Trump to string him along, Putin will NEVER meet with Zelensky.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:01 pm to Trevaylin
Denazification and demilitarization are two of Putin's 12 points to stop the war that he laid out in June 2024.
These Ukrainian nationals have a lot of power. After Z was elected on a peace platform he went to the front lines in Donbass and told them to pull back. They basically ignored him.
The Russians may end up being more flexible on those than they are on territory and security agreements. They have claimed that they are achieving denazification and demilitarization by destroying the Ukrainian army or at least large parts if it.
Who knows? The Russians have never backed off of those 12 points up to this point.
And at the same time the Ukrainian nationals have not wavered in their flexibility either. If Z compromises too much he may get some pushback from them. Some have said that he would be in danger of a coup or finished politically. But I believe that a large percentage of Ukrainians are tired of this war.
This indicates again the complexity in ending this war. A lot of hate on both sides. This war reminds me a lot of the brutality and hatred that the Eastern front had in WWII. It took the destruction and defeat of the German army for that to end. Russia may view it the same way with the Ukrainian army. Whether they can accomplish that is still unknown.
Another reason that the security arrangements have to be solid or this could flare up again. This could be a flashpoint for years.
These Ukrainian nationals have a lot of power. After Z was elected on a peace platform he went to the front lines in Donbass and told them to pull back. They basically ignored him.
The Russians may end up being more flexible on those than they are on territory and security agreements. They have claimed that they are achieving denazification and demilitarization by destroying the Ukrainian army or at least large parts if it.
Who knows? The Russians have never backed off of those 12 points up to this point.
And at the same time the Ukrainian nationals have not wavered in their flexibility either. If Z compromises too much he may get some pushback from them. Some have said that he would be in danger of a coup or finished politically. But I believe that a large percentage of Ukrainians are tired of this war.
This indicates again the complexity in ending this war. A lot of hate on both sides. This war reminds me a lot of the brutality and hatred that the Eastern front had in WWII. It took the destruction and defeat of the German army for that to end. Russia may view it the same way with the Ukrainian army. Whether they can accomplish that is still unknown.
Another reason that the security arrangements have to be solid or this could flare up again. This could be a flashpoint for years.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:02 pm to AU86
quote:
The Russians are agreeing to the type security guarantees that were included in the Istanbul agreements in 2022.
The Russians are bullshitting. They will not agree to anything.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:05 pm to AU86
quote:
This could be a flashpoint for years.
This will not stop until Putin, and probably a hundred others at the top of the Russian regime, are no longer breathing.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:10 pm to Lee B
Trump and I were basically making a joke. We all settle for Vance in 3.5 years.
You are going to love JD.
You and your Democrats must not be too familiar with the constitution either. Thus: Russiagate and the crimes committed against the constitution by Obama and his criminal gang.
You are going to love JD.
You and your Democrats must not be too familiar with the constitution either. Thus: Russiagate and the crimes committed against the constitution by Obama and his criminal gang.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:10 pm to Lee B
quote:
This will not stop until Putin, and probably a hundred others at the top of the Russian regime, are no longer breathing
As our resident leftist, What's your stance on the death penalty?
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:16 pm to Lee B
quote:
No matter what he may tell Trump to string him along, Putin will NEVER meet with Zelensky.
Unfortunately, I believe you are correct.
Putin has done all he could to paint Z as illegitimate and that Ukraine is really Russian. Meeting, negotiating with Z cancels that propaganda.
This post was edited on 8/19/25 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:19 pm to Lee B
quote:
The Russians are bullshitting. They will not agree to anything.
They agreed to them in 2022. I am sure they would be delighted if they could get those same agreements now. Why wouldn't they? Those are basically worthless in regards to the long-term security of Ukraine and have no enforcement measures.
Your fantasy world of Ukraine coming out of this unscathed and whole do not match the reality of the current situation.
If Ukraine can somehow get solid security arrangements they better take them.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:22 pm to AU86
quote:
They agreed to them in 2022
There was no agreement in 2022.
There were outlines, proposals, plans, but no agreements.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:27 pm to doubleb
quote:
There were outlines, proposals, plans, but no agreements.
AU is correct here. I guess technically you both are in a way.
They 'agreed' to certain concessions based on the drafts they were sending back and forth.
A formal 'agreement' was never made. Certain points were 'agreed' upon.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:28 pm to doubleb
But there would have been a good chance if not for Boris and his trip. It is true the agreement was not officially adopted. Biden and Boris made sure of that.
"As long as it takes!!!" Remember that bumper sticker?
"As long as it takes!!!" Remember that bumper sticker?
This post was edited on 8/19/25 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 8/19/25 at 12:32 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
As our resident leftist, What's your stance on the death penalty?
Posted on 8/19/25 at 1:36 pm to doubleb
Some related history from Grok.
quote:
The Nazi-Soviet Pact, officially the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, was signed on August 23, 1939, between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. It was a non-aggression agreement that included a secret protocol dividing Eastern Europe into spheres of influence, directly impacting the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania).Key Points of the Pact:Non-Aggression: Both nations agreed not to attack each other and to remain neutral if either was attacked by a third party.
Secret Protocol: The pact carved up Eastern Europe:Estonia and Latvia were assigned to the Soviet sphere.
Lithuania initially fell under German influence, but a later amendment in September 1939 reassigned most of it to the Soviet sphere.
Poland was split between the two powers.
Fate of the Baltic States:Soviet Occupation (1940):In June 1940, following the German invasion of Poland and the start of World War II, the Soviet Union issued ultimatums to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, demanding they allow Soviet military bases and form governments friendly to Moscow.
Under pressure, the Baltic states complied, but the Soviets orchestrated coups, installing puppet regimes. Rigged elections followed, and the new governments "requested" annexation into the Soviet Union.
By August 1940, all three Baltic states were incorporated as Soviet Socialist Republics (Estonian SSR, Latvian SSR, Lithuanian SSR).
Mass deportations, arrests, and executions of intellectuals, political figures, and civilians followed, targeting those deemed anti-Soviet. Tens of thousands were sent to Gulag camps or killed.
German Occupation (1941–1944):In June 1941, Nazi Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, invading the Soviet Union and occupying the Baltic states by mid-1941.
The Nazis established the Reichskommissariat Ostland, treating the Baltics as a colonial territory. Local populations faced harsh repression, and the Holocaust decimated Jewish communities (e.g., over 90% of Lithuania’s Jews were killed).
Some Balts initially saw Germans as liberators from Soviet oppression, but Nazi brutality quickly alienated them.
Soviet Reoccupation (1944–1991):By 1944–1945, the Soviets retook the Baltic states as the German front collapsed.
Soviet rule resumed with further deportations, collectivization, and Russification policies. Resistance movements, like the "Forest Brothers," fought Soviet forces into the 1950s but were ultimately suppressed.
The Baltic states remained under Soviet control until the USSR’s collapse in 1991, when they regained independence.
Posted on 8/19/25 at 1:59 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
They 'agreed' to certain concessions based on the drafts they were sending back and forth. A formal 'agreement' was never made. Certain points were 'agreed' upon.
Correct
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