re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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A map of Ukrainian strikes on the Russian railway system compiled by OSINT researcher Intelschizo. He recorded 12 strikes on Russia’s railway infrastructure over a 15-day period — targeting dispatch depots, electrical substations, and fuel trains. As shown on the railway system map, the primary objective appears to be disrupting logistics between Volgograd, the Rostov region, and the occupied territories of Donbas.

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Remember, these are strikes on the electrical substations of the rail network. This infrastructure cannot be repaired quickly as rails and bridges and as over 70% of all Ru locomotives are electrical, it is the best method to stop rail logistics in an area.

And another night, another rail substation in the Volgograd region -

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6 killed, 35 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day

August 7, 2025 9:30 am

At least six civilians were killed and 35 others injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past 24 hours, regional authorities reported on Aug. 7.

Ukraine's Air Force said Russian forces launched 112 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy drones overnight. Air defenses shot down 89 of them, while 23 drones struck 11 locations. Debris from downed drones fell in three additional areas.

The military said the attack was repelled using aircraft, mobile fire teams, electronic warfare units, and air defense systems.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russian forces killed four civilians and injured 13, Governor Ivan Fedorov said. A total of 723 strikes hit 12 localities across the region.

In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks killed two civilians in Kostiantynivka and Bilokuzmynivka, Governor Vadym Filashkin said. Another six people were injured throughout the day.

Eight civilians were injured in Kherson Oblast as a result of Russian attacks that targeted residential neighborhoods, critical infrastructure, and social facilities, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said.

In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, four people were injured. This included a 43-year-old man and a 69-year-old woman, who were hospitalized in moderate condition, according to Governor Serhii Lysak.

In Kharkiv Oblast, three people were injured. Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported that a 45-year-old and a 55-year-old man were injured in Kupiansk, and an 86-year-old woman was wounded in the village of Borova.

In Sumy Oblast, a 71-year-old man was injured during one of 80 separate attacks that struck 40 settlements in the region, local officials reported.

The Kyiv Independent

An expansion of the data from the Bloomberg article about the Ru banking sector problems -

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The Ministry of Finance published a report on operations with the National Welfare Fund for July. VEB and VTB received new deposits for 335 billion rubles to improve the liquidity situation. In just 7 months, the Fund issued 850 billion rubles to banks. This is almost 4 times more than last year.

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Moreover, the situation continues to worsen every day. Factories are massively switching to a shortened work week. Yesterday, the Agency TG channel published information that the layoffs will affect about 800 thousand workers

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A large-scale crisis is beginning in Russia. Salary cuts will affect 800 thousand Russians. The methods are different - switching to a 4-day week, salary cuts, unpaid leave.

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In the current conditions, banks' profits are falling.

Gazprombank's decline in 1H2025 was 2 times y/y, from 104 billion to 59 billion

Sovcombank's decline was 6 times, from 28 billion to 4 billion

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VEB's profit for the first half of the year was only 0.5 billion. It can be said that it is practically non-existent, while the bank received 135 billion rubles from the Fund in July.

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Bankers are constantly running to Putin and asking for money. The heads of VTB and VEB especially like to do this. In my opinion, the situation in these banks is the worst. Although VTB has already received 292 billion rubles, they really need 1-2 trillion rubles.

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The situation in VTB is reminiscent of a phantasmagoria. The bank asks the Fund for money to pay dividends to the state, but this money is still not enough, and the bank plans to conduct an additional [bond] issue for 90 billion rubles. Complete nonsense.

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The situation at VEB is no less funny and critical. In July, the bank received 135 billion rubles, and on August 6, the head of the board ran to Putin to ask for more money.

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Now the most interesting part will begin. Due to the closure of factories and the reduction of salaries, there will be an outflow from banks, problems with liquidity, and at the same time an even greater deterioration of credit portfolios

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The rate of withdrawal of money from the Fund will increase sharply, and the Fund will simply become empty. And all this against the backdrop of increasing US sanctions pressure. All this will end in a large-scale banking crisis.

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As we saw with yesterday's preliminary data from the National Wealth Fund, the input of liquidity from gold production was down 17.8% in July. Which means this funding is not even reaching the NWF but being paid directly to the Chinese.

So now the Kremlin is drawing down more from the NWF than is being input and even the input is now falling. Crude oil and refined products output are being sanctioned as well as 'kinetically sanctioned'. As these NWF inputs are now inferior to the gold production, the arrival of the date of exhaustion is accelerating.

But with these solvency problems of the Ru banks, there may be a race to bankruptcy between the banks and the balance of the NWF. With no college football for another three weeks, this may be the best game going right now.

Good rundown on the first days of Putin's invasion.

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It's gotten to be more than the post WWII agreement and design. The EU didn't just tariff but all together banned some US goods with regulations only made by Euro companies, mostly Germany.

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That happened immediately after WWII, too...

Time will tell. Has Putin ever made an agreement in good faith?

In case any of you are suffering from insomnia... More on the Russian economy!

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A 2 billion Ruble injection at the beginning of Fiscal 2025 doesn't even get it out of the red.

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According to the results of 7 months, the deficit is 4.879 trillion rubles This is more than in the entire history of Russia, and this is a deficit for only 7 months.

At this rate, the deficit by the end of the year could be 9-10 trillion Rubles. This is 110-120 billion dollars

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For 7 months y/y Budget revenues: +2.8% y/y

Oil and gas revenues: -18.5% y/y

NON-oil and gas revenues +14% y/y

Expenses +20.8% y/y

Deficit: (-4879 vs. -1098 (2024) )

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June (y/y)

Revenues: +3%

Oil and gas revenues: -27%

NON-oil and gas revenues: +23%

Expenses: +24%

Deficit: (-1.186 trillion rubles)

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The rate of income growth has remained zero for the last 3 months, and this is with inflation at 10%, which means that in real terms there is a recession

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Expenses, unlike income, maintain a high growth rate; over the last 3 months, expenses have been higher than last year by an average of 25%

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The huge growth of expenses, with zero growth rates of income, has already led to catastrophic results of budget execution for 7 months. If expenses are reduced a little, then income will collapse even more because the budget impulse will disappear.

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All civilian industries are in recession, factories are reducing their working week.

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All the reserves that were exhausted. Only military factories are working on government orders. But the budget is no longer receiving anything from this.

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There are two separate economies in Russia today, one civilian, one military. The civilian economy is well into a recession and inflation has to be increased by the Ru Reserve Bank to mitigate gov't. debt. It's not recovering.

The military economy runs as long as the NWF still exists (6-8 months) and there are remaining oligarchs to fleece. The looting of the oligarchs is now the #1 growth business in Russia today. Who will be next?

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Good video that explains how Russia's invasion of the north failed before it ever really got started.

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One factor that it didn't cover in detail was what happened to the land assault with over 1000 pieces of armor.

They intended to send three columns to Kiev, but the ground was too soft and they all moved to one paved road. That resulted in a month long traffic jam while under intense fire.

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The Polish outlet Onet has reported having learned the details of a "favourable" American proposal regarding Ukraine, which was presented to Russian ruler Vladimir Putin during talks with Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy, in Moscow.

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Early trial balloons from Putin to judge reaction. Shows how out of touch he still is.

Witkoff is just an errand boy now. This is not negotiation, Trump just wants to be Alpha Dog by sending his minion to take notes.

This clearly will not fly with the Ukrainians - who by the way, hold all the cards now. As of last week, 47 Russian oil refineries and storage depots have been destroyed and 5 damaged. Another three hit this week. So far... Just last January, the Kstovo refinery was put out of operation, a loss of 5% of Russia’s total refinery output. In one night.

As we have seen over the last three weeks, Russian refineries are back on the menu and Ukraine is eating every night. Delay and obfuscation are the strong suite in Russia's diplomacy game. They know no other strategy. But now, the longer Putin delays the more refineries he loses.

Tick Tock MF.