Is Kalshi Biased?

Yes

k. The answer is no. Betting markets are betting markets.

Kalshi isn't predicting anything.

The simplest way I can explain it to you is "let the money do the talking."
Meaning, if a market is inefficient, someone will take advantage of it, which in turn recalibrates the odds. So then, with enough volume, you essentially hit "equilibrium" of odds because there's no big hedge to bet big either way.

Now if you're referring to elections, if those markets are heavily influenced by using polls, which are deemed inaccurate then the subset of people seeming said polls inaccurate will take advantage of it, which takes us back to the paragraph above.
It's just a market.

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Betting markets can be moved with relatively small amounts of money.

This is very obvious when you look at how small some of the pools of money are on some of these things. I wouldn't use it as a reliable predictor. It might have the ability to shape public perceptions though through false signaling. Which is why these things are generally a terrible idea.

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This is also a good point. I wonder if people with money would think it worthwhile to do, though.

It’s a public betting market so the person who has the most money is favored. Like all betting the public is usually wrong and Kalshi and polymarket are no indications of actual predictions. Look at Massie who had 80% favorability on the markets to then losing.

Not if you paid attention to ky4. I haven’t folllwed most of these races since primaries so I’m not going to act like I have but it was pretty clear especially the last week Massie was going to lose and not because of the Jews.

I won’t lie though Trump voters are doing their job to hold ground but idk if that will be enough if others on the right do stay home.

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Not if you paid attention to ky4.

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I was just saying about prediction markets. I don't remember the dates, but they had Massie up late.

Oh it was until the last minute but again prediction markets don’t mean shite. The election was over very quickly.

I have a not insignificant amount of money placed on some of these races where I felt there was a lot of value vs what these states do historically - like Texas. I feel like the polls are gigantic propaganda machines and/or terrible at their jobs, and I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is and make it interesting. And I’m a prideful degenerate that must school himself on prediction markets trail by fire to successfully squash my curiosity if wrong